I think it is time for a new thread... (I don't think this topic has been covered recently, and yes, I searched the forum archives, although I may not have found a thread if it does exist.)
The big question is: will the current seven Class Ones stay, or will there be future mergers?
My thoughts:
-I've heard a lot of "what ifs" about a scenario where the two eastern roads merge with the two western roads to form two transcontinental roads, like in Canada. My take: I don't see this happening, as reciprocal switching would likely be a forced condition if the STB is willing to permit another merger (and I doubt that they will). Why? Lets say that a "captive" shipper on the UP in Las Vegas wants to ship a load to New York. Right now, he can ask for competing rates on NS and CSX. With a transcontinental road, he looses that ability. The threat of reregulation is great.
-KCS and someone else: KCS, being small, seems like a natural target. Based on culture, though, someone else would have to make a hostile takeover, as KCS won't go willingly. That might change if they lose their Mexican concession (When are they up for renegotiation? Are they 50 years, or is my memory faulty?), which depends a lot on how much power Ferromex has. (Witness the purchase of Ferrosur). Then, the best map fit is probably CP, although they are in no condition to attempt anything. The Meridian Speedway with NS throws another wrench in this theory.
Conclusion: the current state of the big 7 is unlikely to change.
Your thoughts?
KCS....that's an interesting question.....I could see them with CP...but I could also see them going with NS.
On another tangent, I also see NS formally absorbing Pan Am Railways (former Guilford/B&M/MEC).
I believe there is also talk of (I think) CSX making a play for Vermont Railway (VRS).
Great thoughts. The Northeast never really saw and mergers with Class Ones, due to the overbuilt nature, and CSX and NS being cut off by Conrail. Will be interesting to see.
Methinks a lot of it will have to do with endpoints. If an eastern and a western Class 1 determain that there is something to be gained by being able to move traffic through without changing railroads, a merger does become more likely.
I think all of the players might value the ability to select the most efficient routing, as has been mentioned.
In some ways, we're already seeing some "operational" merging, in the form of run-through power. But siting alongside the CSX Chicago Line in Central NY, I'm just as likely to see UP as BNSF (or CN) power.
There has been some action in Class 1's re-acquiring lines they spun off earlier. Oftimes it's because the shortline that took the line over actually turned it into something profitable...
Larry Resident Microferroequinologist (at least at my house) Everyone goes home; Safety begins with you My Opinion. Standard Disclaimers Apply. No Expiration Date Come ride the rails with me! There's one thing about humility - the moment you think you've got it, you've lost it...
Agreed. I do not see any major railroads merging. Sadly, I see G&W buying up more smaller rails and rebranding them though.
(My Model Railroad, My Rules)
These are the opinions of an under 35 , from the east end of, and modeling, the same section of the Wheeling and Lake Erie railway. As well as a freelanced road (Austinville and Dynamite City railroad).
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