PBS Sunday evening PBS news hour. Lead story about what problems with various items of its production including transportation as well as RRs.a
Link to story:
http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/crude-oil-brings-boom-times-safety-concerns-north-dakota/
The latest CBR derailment (UP, Milliken, CO, May 9, 2014, on track of dubious quality) gives further confirmation of my belief that the major Class 1s (BNSF, CP, CN, CSX, NS, and UP) continue to “manage” their new-found wealth of CBR tonnage (2013 gross freight revenues of $1.9 billion for the four U.S. carriers) in a manner fully consistent with their hauling of coal, grain, iron ore, and comparably “innocuous” commodities: “S**t happens. Call Hulcher!”
Consider the major train accidents (11) involving CBR in just 10 months:
Lac Megantic, QC, July, 6, 2013
Landis, SK, September 25, 2013
Gainford, AB, October 19, 2013
Aliceville, AL, November 7, 2013
Casselton, ND, December 30, 2013
Plaster Rock, NB, January 7, 2014
Philadelphia, PA, January 20, 2014
New Augusta, MS, January 31, 2014
Vandergrift, PA, February 14, 2014
Lynchburg, VA, April, 30, 2014
Milliken, CO, May 9, 2014
FRA statistics for 2013 show a “Train Accident” rate of 1.24 per million train miles. Through February of 2014 the rate is up to 1.30 accidents per million train miles. (These stats are for all line-haul trains, not just CBR trains.) My back-of-the-envelope estimates are that CBR loaded train-miles are now running at about 6 to 7 million per year, suggesting 7 to 9 such accidents per year. CBR accidents, initially shrugged off as “one offs”, can now be clearly viewed as “routine”, given the manner in which the traffic is being managed. (See the chronology immediately above.)
Of course, the math is really simpler than that: “Once a month” about catches it. “Where” in June is about the only remaining mystery. (See the chronology immediately above.)
The world is noticing, of course, such as the NPR report, the subject of this post. Then, there is this type of comment from the Huffington Post (I know, I know: “Puffington Host”) of May 1, 2014, following the Lynchburg CBR accident:
Headline: “How Many More Fiery Rail Explosions Do We Need?”
In the article: “We’ve got to do something. The best first step is a moratorium on these shipments until we know for sure that the people and the environment can be protected.”
“Call Hulcher!” isn’t going to do much longer.
Thanks for that chronology and analysis. Hopefully people in the "C-suites" at the carriers and the AAR have done a similar analysis - regardless of what they say publicly - and are responding accordingly.
To put it all in a little clearer perspective - Which ones included or resulted in (in order of increasing danger/ severity):
And yes, I'm aware of the insurance experience / safety analysis principle that any accident has the potential of causing great disaster, it's only luck or fortunate circumstances that there haven't been more Lac Megantic-type incidents at any of these derailments.
- Paul North.
And while not dismissing the severity of CBR derailments, what is the percentage of them vs the total number of mainline derailments in the same time frame?
Norm
The risk and danger is not so much the fires, explosions, deaths, and injuries. The risk to worry about is financial loss from regulation that is based on an exaggerated sense of the risk of fires, explosions, deaths, and injuries.
Certainly Lac Megantic was an anomaly, but in the context of the danger that is being marketed to the public, each fireball derailment, no matter how insignificant, is probably the most expensive derailment in the world history of railroading. This cost is hidden for the time being until the response to the perceived problem is manifested, so it is easy to ignore, deny, or underestimate.
This cost is for damage that Hulcher cannot repair.
Before everybody gets too wound up, y'all do realize that the train that derailed in Colorado wasn't carrying Bakken crude? This train wouldn't even be covered by the latest EO issued by the DOT.
Dave H. Painted side goes up. My website : wnbranch.com
It had tank cars in it, thats all the chicken littles need to panic.
23 17 46 11
edblysard It had tank cars in it, thats all the chicken littles need to panic.
With the hysteria the media adds to every incident - it only needs to be the railroad, who cares if it is tank cars or anything else. With the Baltimore landslide, it didn't even have to be a derailment.
Never too old to have a happy childhood!
Paul_D_North_Jr requested:
“To put it all in a little clearer perspective - Which ones included or resulted in (in order of increasing danger/ severity):
ruptures/leaks
fires/explosions
deaths/injuries[/evacuations]”
Deaths/
Fire/ Ruptures/ Injuries/ Cars
Explosion Leaks Evacuations Involved
Lac Megantic, QC, July, 6, 2013 Y Y ~ 47 Deaths 63
Landis, SK, September 25, 2013 Y Y E 16
Gainford, AB, October 19, 2013 Y Y - 13
Aliceville, AL, November 7, 2013 Y Y - 12
Casselton, ND, December 30, 2013 Y Y E, I(?) 21
Plaster Rock, NB, January 7, 2014 Y Y E 16
Philadelphia, PA, January 20, 2014 N N - 7
New Augusta, MS, January 31, 2014 N Y E 21
Vandergrift, PA, February 14, 2014 N Y - 21
Lynchburg, VA, April, 30, 2014 Y Y E 15
Milliken, CO, May 9, 2014 N Y - 6
Norm48327asked:
“And while not dismissing the severity of CBR derailments, what is the percentage of them vs the total number of mainline derailments in the same time frame?”
My chronology is inclusive of U.S. and Canadian roads, so precise statistics are elusive. FRA stats show there were 539 U.S. linehaul train accidents, July 2013 through February 2014: My chronology shows 5 U.S. CBR loaded train accidents in that period. So, ~1%. (If there were accidents involving empty CBR trains included in the 539 count, then the percentage would be higher. I have no knowledge of such accidents.)
Another method of comparison: My ball park estimate of loaded CBR train miles is 500,000 to 600,000 per month: For ten months: 5.0 to 6.0 million, July, 2013 through April 2014. @ 5.5 million train miles, 6 CBR accidents gives a rate of 2.7, but factoring in an equal number of empty miles would bring the rate to 1.35. That is roughly equal to the FRA rate of ~1.30.
Euclid said:
“… This cost is for damage that Hulcher cannot repair.”
Agree.
dehusman said:
“Before everybody gets too wound up, y'all do realize that the train that derailed in Colorado wasn't carrying Bakken crude? This train wouldn't even be covered by the latest EO issued by the DOT.”
It seems to me that in the arena of public opinion (ill-informed as it may be) and public policy formation, “crude in the ditch” (aka, “waterway”) is “crude in the ditch”, Bakken or no.
BaltADC said:
“With the hysteria the media adds to every incident - it only needs to be the railroad, who cares if it is tank cars or anything else. With the Baltimore landslide, it didn't even have to be a derailment.”
Simply to amplify your point, I copy below an article from the “front page” of the online Wall Street Journal (of all papers, not the “Puffington Host”!) this weekend:
“Canada's biggest railroad operator, confirmed Saturday it is investigating a train derailment in which six railcars fell off a track in eastern Canada, but remained upright.
“The derailment happened Friday afternoon outside of Grand Falls, a small town in New Brunswick, on a side track off the main line, Canadian National spokesman Jim Feeny said in a phone interview. The cars, which were traveling about six miles an hour when their wheels left the track, weren't carrying any dangerous goods and no one was injured, he said.
“It was a "very minor accident," Mr. Feeny said. After the accident, the Montreal-based railroad operator put the cars back on the track and normal operations resumed Saturday morning. The company still is trying to figure out the cause of the derailment.
“The accident comes as the safety record of North America's railroad operators has attracted increasing regulatory scrutiny following much more serious derailments over the last year in New Brunswick, Quebec and Virginia of railcars carrying oil that exploded as a result of the accidents. The July 2013 train derailment in Lac-Mégantic, Quebec killed dozens of people and devastated the town.
“Of the derailed cars involved in Friday's accident, two were carrying automobiles, two had fertilizer cargo, one had railway ties and one was empty, Canadian National's Mr. Feeny said.”
Such is the arena in which CBR accidents are being scrutinized.
466lex dehusman said: “Before everybody gets too wound up, y'all do realize that the train that derailed in Colorado wasn't carrying Bakken crude? This train wouldn't even be covered by the latest EO issued by the DOT.” It seems to me that in the arena of public opinion (ill-informed as it may be) and public policy formation, “crude in the ditch” (aka, “waterway”) is “crude in the ditch”, Bakken or no.
True, and I understand that. However on this forum there has been extensive discussion about how "different" the Bakken crude is and how it should be considered "different" than other crude. This is the other crude.
In the separate thread on the Colorado derailment, the news did mention that the crude oil splilled was Niobrara crude and not Bakken crude, than the Niobrara was less volitile. Possibly why the incident wasn't more widely publicized.
The leak was not due to a puncture of the car.
Railroad equivalent of a fender bender makes front page of website? Slow news day?
Thank you, sir ! (lex466)
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