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A search on Google for power plants shutting down in 2018 produced three or four articles regarding the closure or mothballing of select coal power plants by 2018 or before.  The first article related to the shutdown for two coal fired power plants in the Chicago area.  The other articles mentioned power plants in Washington, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Texas.   Several factors are driving the shutdowns.  In Chicago politics appears to have played a major role.  Some of the other plants are near the end of their optimum life spans, and they will be shutdown irrespective of planned EPA regulations.  Others will be mothballed because of economics.   The decision whether to install scrubbers, as well as gear the plants for clean coal technology, is a function of economics.  Because of the dramatic drop in the cost of natural gas, the optimum business decision is to switch to natural gas fired generation as opposed to upgrading (scrubbers) the coal plants. In other words, given the steep decline in natural gas prices, many utilities will switch to natural gas irrespective of the EPA.  Coal fired electric generation is likely to be an important element in the nation's electric generation mix for the foreseeable future.  In 2009, for example, according to the Energy Information Administration, 45% of the electricity in the United States came from coal fired steam electric stations.  This was down from 52% in 2000.  During the same period electricity generated by gas fired stations increased from 13% to 24% of the load.  Moreover, nearly all of the new generation completed in the United States during the last decade is fired by natural gas.   Texas is amongst the many states that rely heavily on coal fired power plants. In 2010 coal accounted for 40% of the electricity generated in the Lone Star state compared to 38% for natural gas, 13% for nuclear, 8% for wind, and 1% for other.  However, installed generation is another matter, which is important to recognize, because people frequently confuse the two.  Again, in Texas, which is somewhat representative of the country as a whole, coal fired plants make up installed capacity of 23% compared to 57% for natural gas, 6% for nuclear, 12% for wind, and 2% for other.     Fuel diversity is a key to affordable and dependable electric energy. In this case, wind, solar, and hydro are considered to be fuels, although most people, I suspect, don't think of them that way. The ability to switch from one source of fuel to another as cost parameters change is critical to being able to supply the nation with dependable and affordable electric energy.   Those who argue for clean energy now as an alternative to fossil fuel and nuclear generation, primarily wind and solar, overlook the fact that wind and solar are not ready for prime time. They will not be ready until the ability to store power when the wind is not blowing or the sun is not shinning is ready for prime time.  Battery technology, which is only one of several storage methods, is not ready to handle the huge demands placed on the grid.  Thus, for every megawatt of wind and solar generated power, one needs a megawatt of coal, natural gas, or nuclear power back-up, unless one is willing to live with interrupted power. Most Americans have shown that they will not accept interrupted power. The reason wind represents 12% of the installed capacity in Texas, but only generated 8% of the load in 2010 is due to the fact that the wind does not blow steadily each day, or sometimes it does not blow at all.  Also, the reason Texas generates 38% of its power from natural gas, although it represents 57% of installed capacity, is because of the load imposed by air conditioning in the summer.  So, at the end of the day, the dynamics associated with the generation of electric energy is more complex than most people realize.    According to the American Association of Railroads, coal is the most important single commodity carried by the nation's railroads.  In 2009 it accounted for 47% per cent of the tonnage and 25% of the revenues for the Class I carriers.  Coal is also an important commodity for the non-Class I railroads.  Seventy per cent of the coal produced in the United States is shipped by rail.  The number of tons shipped in 2009 and 2010 declined from previous years, primarily because of a decline in electric energy demand and a corresponding switch to natural gas fired power stations.   Clearly, if the United States were to move away abruptly from coal fired electric generation, which is not probable, it would have a dramatic impact on the fortunes of the nation's railroads. But it would not kill them. It could be a cloud with a silver lining, depending on the alternative outcomes. In 2008 (last good numbers) the average revenue per ton mile for coal was 2.43 cents, which was the lowest revenue per ton mile for any commodity hauled by the railroads. The average revenue per ton mile for all commodities was 5.38%. Assuming coal car loadings continue to decline as a per cent of traffic hauled, if they can be replaced by items commanding higher revenue, the railroads could come out a winner. Also, the average load per coal car in 2009 was 115 tons.  This is 230,000 pounds plus the tar weight of the car.  Assuming that the coal load could be replaced by less dense, higher value freight, reduced coal traffic might mean less wear and tear on the system.  Hopefully, one of our engineer participants could address this issue.  If the nation suddenly bans the use of coal in electric generation or greatly restricts its use, as it did with natural gas in the 70s before it became clear that a huge mistake had been made, it would have a dramatic impact on the availability and affordability of electric energy, without which we would not be able to share views on these forums.
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