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Regarding an HSR market analysis: <?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o:p></o:p> The question of why we should have HSR has been answered in a variety of ways.  These are the most common answers I have heard: <o:p></o:p> 1)      It will reduce congestion on highways. 2)      It will be safer than highway travel. 3)      It will save fuel to the extent it replaces air and highway travel. 4)      It will use less land than highways. 5)      It will show our friends that we are civilized. 6)      It will keep us competitive with the rest of the world. 7)      It will keep foreign countries from purchasing our country. 8)      It can be powered by renewable energy sources. 9)      Its construction will stimulate the economy. 10)  Its construction and operation will create jobs. <o:p></o:p> <o:p></o:p> All of these reasons have nothing to do with the personal preference of individuals in the marketplace.  Instead, they are collectivized benefits that flow to society as if that society were composed of a homogenized mass of people who all have the same identical interests.  These reasons set aside the issue of personal preference in favor of the interest of society as a whole. <o:p></o:p> A marketing analysis would be necessary to determine what to build where in order to get the biggest bang for the buck.  However, one major difficulty of the market analysis is that the items comprising the “bang” are very hard to quantify.  What our friends think of us, for instance, is a largely a matter of fashion and style. <o:p></o:p> Another problem with a market analysis for HSR is that HSR will be publicly financed.  Unlike private investment, public financing does not necessarily require that the investment make a profit.  Therefore, in the case of an investment that does not need to be profitable, the market analysis becomes quite subjective in its result.  <o:p></o:p> Yet another factor that will make a marketing analysis difficult with HSR is that the government can skew the market by adding taxes to gasoline in order to force people to drive less. <o:p></o:p> Another factor is that politicians making public investment are influenced by the political advantage that will redound to them.  Government, as a whole, is motivated to expand itself, and is therefore likely to proceed with projects regardless if they are justified by the needs of the people.  <o:p></o:p> If the issue to be found by a market analysis were simply a question of how many people would ride a train from point A to point B, and the price they would be willing to pay, in a private business venture that needed to show a specific profit; then a market analysis would be very straight forward, and it would determine whether to go ahead with the investment or not.   <o:p></o:p> But in the case of government financed HSR, with no need of profit, guided and influenced by political motivations, considering government’s ability to skew the market, and justified by a wide variety of intangible objectives, I cannot see how a meaningful market analysis can possibly be produced.  If anything, such a market analysis will end up being a sham used to sell the public something they don’t need in order to fatten politicians. <o:p></o:p> <o:p></o:p>
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