BaltACD What are the costs of Over Reaction? What are the costs of Under Reaction? One results in monetary loss, the other is counted in lives.
What are the costs of Over Reaction?
What are the costs of Under Reaction?
One results in monetary loss, the other is counted in lives.
Absolutely right.
Right. And what has been or continues to be the motivation for people, including some on here, to minimize the dangers of under-reaction or misdirected responses?
Noting that an over reaction can cost lives as well.
I remember the response from one medical researcher when he heard that the R0 (R-naught) for the virus was 3.8, saying that we were going to be facing a 1918 flu situation and the general reaction was that he was fear mongering by people all over the political spectrum.
This might be a simple test for those who believe the public is "over-reacting":
1. Which airline or Amtrak tickets have you bought this week or are willing to commit to for next week?
2. Name the common stocks you bought this week or will commit to for next week.
3. Which hospital or nursing home have you visited this week or are willing to commit to visiting for next week?
4. Which friends or family members are you concerned about as it pertains to COVID-19?
Answers: Obvious.
Not trying to be a wise guy by any means, but...
1) None, but I wasn't planning to anyway. However my best friend was planning a visit by Amtrak this week and hasn't altered his plans. He's traveling down from New Jersey.
2) None, but I don't play the market anyway. At any rate, it never seems to take much to upset Wall Street to begin with. Why? Well, get a pencil and paper and write these words down, words to remember and live by. You ready? OK..
Money is a coward.
3) None, but I don't know anyone who's hospitalized at this time nor anyone in a nursing home anyway. Anyone I did know has passed away already. And if I did know anyone it would take more than a flu bug to keep me away, count on it.
4) None. They're all in pretty good health, considering, and they know how to take care of themselves. They're not the panicking kind either.
I see the "lick the Coronavirus" thread got deleted. What a shame.
Dave should re-post that advice in this thread, that is if it doesn't get deleted too.
Greetings from Alberta
-an Articulate Malcontent
SD70DudeI see the "lick the Coronavirus" thread got deleted. What a shame.
Talk about an over-reaction. Nothing surprises me anymore on here.
The opinions expressed here represent my own and not those of my employer, any other railroad, company, or person.
zugmann SD70Dude I see the "lick the Coronavirus" thread got deleted. What a shame. Talk about an over-reaction. Nothing surprises me anymore on here.
SD70Dude I see the "lick the Coronavirus" thread got deleted. What a shame.
Well it was getting political, but how could it not? And I agree with the 'Dude, it's a shame it was dropped.
It'll probably happen to this one as well. It has veered a bit from the idea of my original post, but I'm not complaining. I like a spirited discussion as long as everyone keeps it respectful. There are no idiots here but there is quite a bit of wisdom. Remember that.
NKP guy You do know, don't you, that paper towels are not meant to be flushed down the toilet? That'll only cause plumbing problems for you
That's what the air compressor is for.
Flintlock76 There are no idiots here
There are no idiots here
It's time to go shopping.
Hold my beer while I transform into Cornholio!
Well despite Davids good intentions he should not be dispensing medical advice based on his friend.
I would flip out too if I was Kalmbach. Can you imagine the lawsuits " I followed your advice as published and 3 family members died"!
I guess the advice holds, link the story, but don't quote it verbatim. Let people read it and make up their own minds.
.
York1 John
Convicted One: Regarding the air compressor:
Your post gave me the biggest smile I've had on an otherwise rather bleak-looking day! Many thanks!
Rio Grande Valley, CFI,CFII
Thank you PJS1!
NKP guy This might be a simple test for those who believe the public is "over-reacting": 1. Which airline or Amtrak tickets have you bought this week or are willing to commit to for next week? 2. Name the common stocks you bought this week or will commit to for next week. 3. Which hospital or nursing home have you visited this week or are willing to commit to visiting for next week? 4. Which friends or family members are you concerned about as it pertains to COVID-19? Answers: Obvious.
I'm not minimizing the threat here, just questioning your assumptions about peoples day to day lives.
I don't have any need or desire to even leave my general area in the next two weeks, I have obligations here. I had no plans to go anywhere, that has not changed. When we do travel it is usually by car.....
Now I will be watching my grandchildren because the State of Maryland just closed the schools for two weeks.......
Except for some retirement account stuff, we got out of the market decades ago and put the money in real estate. People always need a place to live......it's the best money I ever made. So I would not be buying or selling stocks next week in any case.
None of my friends or family are in the hospital, none live in nursing homes.....
Well, my wife does have some health issues that might put her at higher than average risk on an airplane, or cruise ship, but that kind of travel, or going to crowded events are not our kind of thing anyway.
I am always amused by people who think everyone lives like they do.......
I do think this situation deserves caution, it is not an area of expertise for me, I will trust those for whom it is.
But your simple test does not apply to a vast number of people.......
Sheldon
I flew to Miami on Monday and returned yesterday. I have, however, rescheduled March 30th and May 2nd cruises for August 26th and November 23rd.
I nearly doubled down on my Fideility Total Market Index fund today. Just like I did in February of 2009. As a result of the doubling down in 2009, I made a lot of money in no small part because I have a lot of money invested. I expect similar results this go around. The market always rebounds.
I don't know anyone in a nursing home.
My brother travels a good deal. I hope he does not contract COVID-19, but if he does, he has an excellent chance of survival.
I think we all could use a good laugh or two to break the tension.
Here's "Ticked-off Vic" DiBetetto with some ingenious and unique ways to defeat the coronavirus. You ready?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LSVfYTZOv-Q
And with that I'm signing off for the evening. See you tomorrow!
PJS1 The number of reported COVID-19 cases in Italy is 11,202. The estimated population of the country is 60,461,826. Approximately .02 percent of the population has contracted the disease, and approximately 96.6 percent of them will recover. Approximately 800 Italians or .0013 percent of the population has succumbed to the disease. Many of them were older or had underlying health issues. What is not known is how many of the old folks would have died during the same period of other causes.
According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the estimated population of the United States is 330,414,717 According to the Center for Disease Control and Prevention, as of noon yesterday there were 938 reported cases of COVID-19 in the United States.
Same caveat as Italy, actual infections are probably higher than reported infections. It is a cause for concern, but also important to really think through what steps need to be taken.
I can well imagine that Kalmbach's lawyers could easily advise removal of my recommendations despite my including the advice to check with your own doctor. However, I did put my doctor's reaction to the advice that, for me, sitting in the sun is not a good idea.
Somehow, three Israelis have already been cured of the disease, so even now a cure is possible. The cure will obviously depend on specific medical conditions, and there is apparently not one specific route.
An Israeli firm claims to have started an innoculation testing program. I'll post details when available. A Texas firm claims to have innoculation within a year. I do not know whether this will be a "See who gets there first" race ir wherther concern for the general good will prompt collaboration.
The website coronavirus.gov has specific recommendations and some duplicate what Steve Sattler sent me and which I posted. But not "sitting in the sun."
It is an official Government website, and I recommend it. And I hope Kalmbach's lawyers can agree.
Heating Dave's link
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html
Never too old to have a happy childhood!
charlie hebdo Sorry, but I think it is far more sensible to trust the actual scientists at the CDC, NIH, WHO and affiliated medical and epidemiological researchers. Credentials do matter.
Sorry, but I think it is far more sensible to trust the actual scientists at the CDC, NIH, WHO and affiliated medical and epidemiological researchers. Credentials do matter.
You can trust those Government scientists, I won't, I'll trust regular treating physicians over them any day, and so far, all I've been hearing from them is that we are blowing this out of proportion. Here's the latest idiocy from the CDC, slow the spread using "social distancing" so that we don't overwhelm our medical facilities and have far more deaths than necessary and this should be over with in ONE to TWO years. I'd rather let the disease take it's course over a shorter time frame and get back to normal sooner rather than later. Don't quarantine, don't isolate, as a matter of fact I don't even worry about it, if I get it I'll let my body develop it's own immunities, don't want a man-made vacine that will just be circumvented by the disease mutating. It's in the same family as SARS(10% mortality), MERS(35% mortality) and EBOLA(50% mortality) with COVID-19 right now at about .1% mortality, now tell me why we should be freaking out over this?
As for cancelling service or curtailing because ridership is down, well of course you should be looking at doing that if it makes sense and you can rapidly reintroduce the service once the all clear is given. Keep in mind with Amtrak it's a perfect way for them to get rid of services they've been dying to eliminate for the last several years now and not bring it back, that's the problem I see with these train offs.
Just curious - do you have any medical training?
I am of the opinion that as a society we have become 'too clean'. The Immune System is the figher of the human body. Like all fighters it needs to be exercised to stay 'sharp' and 'in shape' to be able to do its job. Humans living in a agrarian society were surrounded on a daily basis with all sorts of 'attackers' that the immune system would spar with and remain active. In the urban enviornments of a century ago there were more than enough opponents to keep the immune system working to protect us.
50 or 60 years ago did we EVER hear of all the common food allergies that seem to afflict children (for the most part) in todays world. Children, I hypotheses, that have been raised in a 'hyper clean' situation where their immune system has been 'looking for a fight' and instead of finding a real opponent of disease or other contagion has picked on a food source just to have something to fight.
I am not a doctor and have had NO MEDICAL TRAINING - YMMV.
BaltACD I am of the opinion that as a society we have become 'too clean'. The Immune System is the figher of the human body. Like all fighters it needs to be exercised to stay 'sharp' and 'in shape' to be able to do its job. Humans living in a agrarian society were surrounded on a daily basis with all sorts of 'attackers' that the immune system would spar with and remain active. In the urban enviornments of a century ago there were more than enough opponents to keep the immune system working to protect us. 50 or 60 years ago did we EVER hear of all the common food allergies that seem to afflict children (for the most part) in todays world. Children, I hypotheses, that have been raised in a 'hyper clean' situation where their immune system has been 'looking for a fight' and instead of finding a real opponent of disease or other contagion has picked on a food source just to have something to fight. I am not a doctor and have had NO MEDICAL TRAINING - YMMV.
Agreed
In the first half of the 20th century and earlier, a lot more people died of infections and childhood diseases, especially prior to introduction of the various vaccines such as for polio, smallpox, etc
charlie hebdoIn the first half of the 20th century and earlier, a lot more people died of infections and childhood diseases, especially prior to introduction of the various vaccines such as for polio, smallpox, etc
I am not saying that the immune system doesn't need help along the way. It seems that all people involved in physical activity need help along the way - caffeine, PED's or some other form of assistance. The various vaccines that have been developed over the years are the PED's for the immune system. But even with PED's, the immune system needs regular 'road work' and sparring to continue to do it's job properly. The PED's that one gets are those that are acknowledged to be ones that the immune system doesn't have a knock out punch as a defense against. The immune system is not infallible and as man's knowledge of disease and contagion has increased we have learned some of the situations where the immune system alone is inadequate to protect the body.
Given your opinion, perhaps you should throw caution to the winds. Transmission is mostly close contact, not really airborne.
Here are some numbers you should consider, however.
Most cases and deaths in China (population 1.39 billion) were in one province, Hubei, population 58.5 million.
Number of cases/deaths in China: 80,552/3,042
Hubei: 67,592/ 2931. Lethality rate = 4.3%
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