See seperate thread on Texas Eagle Trip report.
A new use for coal!
CMStPnP Since youtube was mentioned I can even give everyone a preview of myself wrestling with the METRA EXPRESS and trying to clear traffic ahead of my Chicago to Milwaukee Amtrak train so I can get to Milwaukee on time. Here is a video of me in Prairieville, Illinois trying to single handedly untangle the traffic mess caused by METRA, had to use a white horse because of the crowds but as you can see I had a little help from METRA passengers that were also fed up.........you can see some of that METRA MOW and Commuter equipment is starting to show it's age. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nMZToxfIUAk
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nMZToxfIUAk
A great video! And realistic too!
Rio Grande Valley, CFI,CFII
Since youtube was mentioned I can even give everyone a preview of myself wrestling with the METRA EXPRESS and trying to clear traffic ahead of my Chicago to Milwaukee Amtrak train so I can get to Milwaukee on time. Here is a video of me in Prairieville, Illinois trying to single handedly untangle the traffic mess caused by METRA, had to use a white horse because of the crowds but as you can see I had a little help from METRA passengers that were also fed up.........you can see some of that METRA MOW and Commuter equipment is starting to show it's age.
Hoisted on his own petard!
QED.
charlie hebdoFor the record, he never linked being lucky with his trains always being in time. Now he is contending they are on time during the holidays (seven round trips) and will prove that contention by reporting his journey. Oh well, enjoy your holiday.
See you can't win an argument ever on merits so you put words in other peoples mouths, name call, post provacative statements or twist what was said. All that says is you had a weak argument to begin with that was indefensible (as usual). The above is not what I said.
I said on time more often then rest of the year, also didn't say holidays generically, pretty sure it is Christmas time now.....at least it is on my calendar.
Overmod charlie hebdo All I am saying which seems pretty simple is that MR guy is pretty lucky to be on time in Chicago twice a year, given those percentages/probabilities. Which is almost exactly what I understand MILW to have been saying -- that he's lucky to have been on-time every time he goes. But I'm reserving judgment on the subsequent 'evolution' of the discussion until he states the argument deserving of the victory dance of vindication. Thank you for better confirming what the 37% represents.
charlie hebdo All I am saying which seems pretty simple is that MR guy is pretty lucky to be on time in Chicago twice a year, given those percentages/probabilities.
Which is almost exactly what I understand MILW to have been saying -- that he's lucky to have been on-time every time he goes. But I'm reserving judgment on the subsequent 'evolution' of the discussion until he states the argument deserving of the victory dance of vindication.
Thank you for better confirming what the 37% represents.
It's pointless to discuss with someone like MR guy who is always "right" and I was foolish to once again to attempt that.
For the record, he never linked being lucky with his trains always being in time. Now he is contending they are on time during the holidays (seven round trips) and will prove that contention by reporting his journey. Oh well, enjoy your holiday.
charlie hebdoAll I am saying which seems pretty simple is that MR guy is pretty lucky to be on time in Chicago twice a year, given those percentages/probabilities.
OvermodThe problem is that the 37% for what I think is supposed to be 'average percentage of lateness at one or more intermediate stations' correlates so poorly with JPS1's stats for endpoint arrivals. That indicates to me that there is likely some delay enroute that is made up by arrival; which as I noted is immaterial to CMStP&P's observation.
Just start measuring arrival stats in Chicago from now until the day after New Years for the Texas Eagle. If my hypothesis is correct, the train will be ontime more often during this 1-2 week period..........then the rest of the year's averages. Exception being any severe weather that impacts train speed.
When I get back I will report which direction did what performance, since I will be on the train again vs just reading about it. I will also be ready to do the "Church Lady" dance of vindication.....yet once again. :)
charlie hebdoThe following stats are not averages or medians, though it would be useful to have that data along with standard deviations. Amtrak reported for 2018 that the Eagle's OTP for each station was 37%. “On-time performance” (OTP) is defined as the percentage of stations [all stations on a given route] at which a train arrives within 15 minutes of the time in the public schedule. JPS1 said, "In 2018 the OTP [endpoints] was 46.4 percent.
JPS1 said, "In 2018 the OTP [endpoints] was 46.4 percent.
No averages, certainly no stochastic stats used, and the OTP (all stations on the route) percentage -37%- is not inconsistent with the endpoint percentage - 46.4%.
All I am saying which seems pretty simple is that MR guy is pretty lucky to be on time in Chicago twice a year, given those percentages/probabilities. The odds are against an on-time arrival on what has been the last few years the worst-performing Amtrak route. You don't need monthly stats to see that.
MR guy will never admit that he just might be wrong, as we see in his response to n012944, who tripped him up.
duplicate
n012944Unfortunately Buslist is no longer with us... https://hickscarworks.blogspot.com/2018/01/in-memoriam-albert-reinschmidt.html
https://hickscarworks.blogspot.com/2018/01/in-memoriam-albert-reinschmidt.html
Damn, that sucks. I thought he was one of the better posters here, too.
charlie hebdoApparently you conclude that it is an irrelevant red herring that the train is late at all the intermediate stations but still manages to arrive at the endpoints on time?
The problem is that the 37% for what I think is supposed to be 'average percentage of lateness at one or more intermediate stations' correlates so poorly with JPS1's stats for endpoint arrivals. That indicates to me that there is likely some delay enroute that is made up by arrival; which as I noted is immaterial to CMStP&P's observation.
This would be easier to substantiate if I had an exact percentage for on-time arrival at Chicago in the month(s) involved, which is probably easy enough to generate given time and access to data sources. I'd also say that applying statistics to determinate outcomes is not as meaningful an application of statistical principles as predicting the probability of late arrival a priori; all it means is he was lucky on the particular days he traveled, which is what I thought he was saying from the beginning.
I don't think you or anyone else could accurately predict whether a given particular Eagle will be late, either at select intermediate stops or endpoints, from the given 'numbers' or any other monthly statistic, which is partly why I invoked stochastics. (I confess some additional part of it was in sarcasm rather than intended as technically accurate...)
n012944No one mentioned "armageddon. Just a couple of people who are experienced in railroad operations telling someone without railroad operation knowledge the challenges of operating passenger trains over the line. And no, watching YouTube videos does not count as railroad operation knowledge. http://cs.trains.com/trn/f/743/p/258882/2905202.aspx?page=2 Unfortunately Buslist is no longer with us, however he had more railroad knowledge in his left thumb that you will ever have. He also had the ability to stop, listen, and learn when someone with more knowledge was trying to educate him, a skill you seem to lack. Oh well.... https://hickscarworks.blogspot.com/2018/01/in-memoriam-albert-reinschmidt.html
I wasn't aware he was in charge of operations for that specific line. I thought he just knew of it or possibly operated over it and was expressing his observations as a crew member.
I might say the whole arguing position on that issue is quite ridiculous as well. Capacity can't be added because............well it's impossible or cost prohibitive. Yet public proposals from the state are made unchallenged by the railroad. Elsewhere the same railroad speaks up publicly if a proposal is made that is unrealistic.
You know that reminds me of another arguing position someone took on here about adding a third track to a specific route.........well one could go on and on. It's not that I don't take seriously some of the comments or appreciate them. Some are so ridiculously outlandish they beg for a challenge. I guess I could keep quiet and let the ridiculousness get worse but that is the cost of silence. The poster making the outlandish claim thinks they got away with the last one, so why not make another, then another. Eventually it is no longer a serious discussion.
charlie hebdoYou don't understand the term "outlier"
One data point (one day for an annual stat) usually not repeatable that stands out from the rest...........and yet for me it happens in the past two days both trips. You really need to brush up on your definitions though. Pretty sure I understand it. Plus you have Diggesty saying it happened to him at St. Louis. That would be another data point on another years annual stats of course and if it was the only train it would be an outlier.
CMStPnP Though I do want to mention the "railroad armageddon" scenario mentioned if BNSF adds just one passenger train between Denver and Pueblo........we can save that for another thread though. :)
Though I do want to mention the "railroad armageddon" scenario mentioned if BNSF adds just one passenger train between Denver and Pueblo........we can save that for another thread though. :)
No one mentioned "armageddon. Just a couple of people who are experienced in railroad operations telling someone without railroad operation knowledge the challenges of operating passenger trains over the line. And no, watching YouTube videos does not count as railroad operation knowledge.
http://cs.trains.com/trn/f/743/p/258882/2905202.aspx?page=2
Unfortunately Buslist is no longer with us, however he had more railroad knowledge in his left thumb that you will ever have. He also had the ability to stop, listen, and learn when someone with more knowledge was trying to educate him, a skill you seem to lack. Oh well....
An "expensive model collector"
Overmodwhether or not he understands sophisticated stochastics
Inappropriate use here, as Amtrak's OTP on a given day or in aggregate is hardly random, at least in most cases.
CMStPnP Overmod Where did CMStP&P say anything about on time at stations enroute? Charlie Hebdo always takes these ridiculous contrary positions and then uses data that supports what I said earlier. I don't get it but he did prove my point about statistics. I don't need to be an outlier to arrive on time or early in Chicago or arrive ontime or early in Dallas. The stats he posted underlined that fact. Oh and BTW, as I stated in earlier threads the train is early into St. Louis and other intermediate points, the train pauses there until scheduled departure. You don't see the early stats anywhere...........which tells you what about what Amtrak did with them? BTW, other folks chimed in they had the same experience on the Texas Eagle on earlier threads. It is more than just me stating this. It's not my fault a reader can't put two and two together here and imply we all must be lying or hallucinating because that is not what the stats say or it only one or two data points in the year. Puleeese, get serious.
Overmod Where did CMStP&P say anything about on time at stations enroute?
Charlie Hebdo always takes these ridiculous contrary positions and then uses data that supports what I said earlier. I don't get it but he did prove my point about statistics. I don't need to be an outlier to arrive on time or early in Chicago or arrive ontime or early in Dallas. The stats he posted underlined that fact.
Oh and BTW, as I stated in earlier threads the train is early into St. Louis and other intermediate points, the train pauses there until scheduled departure. You don't see the early stats anywhere...........which tells you what about what Amtrak did with them? BTW, other folks chimed in they had the same experience on the Texas Eagle on earlier threads. It is more than just me stating this. It's not my fault a reader can't put two and two together here and imply we all must be lying or hallucinating because that is not what the stats say or it only one or two data points in the year. Puleeese, get serious.
You don't understand the term "outlier" or you wouldn't keep trying to claim your and others' always arriving in Chicago on-time (or within the 15 minute cushion - airlines use a cushion, too) is typical. But then again in fairness, how could you be expected to?
If the Eagle reaches end points on-time less than 30% of the time, then your always being on-time is really bucking the odds. Perhaps you should head for the casinos as you seem to be a really lucky guy!!!
Ah, yes. three years ago, I went to Chicago by way of Los Angeles, taking three nights from LA to Chicago. We arrived in St. Louis an hour early--and then rode over the former C&EI to Chicago, arriving in time for me to take #30 to Washington.
Johnny
OvermodI must be missing something in all the acrimony, but can't figure out what it's supposed to be.
Stats are being interpreted incorrectly as they were with the Milwaukee to Chicago cooridor when it was stated that Wisconsin did not need to add more trains because it's load factor was too low to make a case it needed more trains. Which of course ignored the standing room only on at least 3 of the 7 existing trains between those two cities. So again stats were being interpreted incorrectly and more broadly there then they should have been.
Then we have the 15 min Amtrak argument. I was told that no rail operator would ever consider a 5 min or less standard..........and yet there is a publication mentioning a German rail operator showing both a 15 min and 5 min standard. 15 min standard shows everything is just great 90-93% ontime. 5 min standard shows on time performance is deteriorating over time. So there is yet another example.
The defense rests its case. :)
OvermodWhere did CMStP&P say anything about on time at stations enroute?
Yeah you missed the endpoint data. OTP at endpoints (Chicago is one) is pretty bad, well less than half the time. But he claims he is always on time, which is certainly possible, but an outlier.
Apparently you conclude that it is an irrelevant red herring that the train is late at all the intermediate stations but still manages to arrive at the endpoints on time? "I have a bridge, or swamp land... "
Where did CMStP&P say anything about on time at stations enroute? All I recall him saying is that he was OT into Chicago, and whether or not he understands sophisticated stochastics the relevant statistic will be the corresponding 'half' of JPS1's statistic (in other words, the OT arrival percentage at Chicago). Stats for intermediate timekeeping are irrelevant, and to me at least introducing them as if they 'meant something' against his understanding seems to have substantial red-herringness...
I must be missing something in all the acrimony, but can't figure out what it's supposed to be.
Quite the contrary but it does show you don't understand stats.
charlie hebdo So you are saying the OTP when you ride the Eagle is an outlier. I think forum readers understand descriptive statistics much better than you give them credit. The following stats are not averages or medians, though it would be useful to have that data along with standard deviations. Amtrak reported for 2018 that the Eagle's OTP for each station was 37%. “On-time performance” (OTP) is defined as the percentage of stations at which a train arrives within 15 minutes of the time in the public schedule. JPS1 said, "In 2019 the Eagle’s On-Time-Percentage (OTP) at its end points was 29.1 percent. In 2018 the OTP was 46.4 percent; in 2017 it was 60.7 percent.
So you are saying the OTP when you ride the Eagle is an outlier. I think forum readers understand descriptive statistics much better than you give them credit.
The following stats are not averages or medians, though it would be useful to have that data along with standard deviations. Amtrak reported for 2018 that the Eagle's OTP for each station was 37%. “On-time performance” (OTP) is defined as the percentage of stations at which a train arrives within 15 minutes of the time in the public schedule. JPS1 said, "In 2019 the Eagle’s On-Time-Percentage (OTP) at its end points was 29.1 percent. In 2018 the OTP was 46.4 percent; in 2017 it was 60.7 percent.
Which proves my point.
charlie hebdoIt is scheduled inbound to arrive in early afternoon, moving against the commuter outbound trains on that Metra line. So the answer is what Hegewisch said. There is no Metra conflict, even if the Eagle is 2 hours late. But for charmed CMStPnP, it's always on time, improbable as that seems. But not for his Hiawatha trip up to the MKE area, because Joe Lunch Bucket on Metra gets in his way.
Rail stats are generally not understood in this forum and I am frequently contradicted by folks that don't even ride the trains. I remember someone contradicting me on some of the Chicago to Milwaukee trains being standing room only for part of their trips. Couldn't be possible I was told, the stats do not support it. Though you can google and eventually find the official statement by WisDOT that 3-4 of the 7 trains are indeed standing room only for part of their Chicago to Milwaukee trips. Anyhoo, I ride the trains, I know what I see.
So now here we go with the Texas Eagle. It has a bad performance average.............so every single day of the year it has to have a bad time keeping performance. It's just a basic misunderstanding of what the word "average" really means. It does not mean every single data point. It means when the data points are "averaged" together and the peaks and valleys smoothed out.
It is scheduled inbound to arrive in early afternoon, moving against the commuter outbound trains on that Metra line. So the answer is what Hegewisch said. There is no Metra conflict, even if the Eagle is 2 hours late. But for charmed CMStPnP, it's always on time, improbable as that seems. But not for his Hiawatha trip up to the MKE area, because Joe Lunch Bucket on Metra gets in his way.
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