Texas Eagle OTP and Ridership

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Posted by charlie hebdo on Friday, December 20, 2019 5:24 PM

charlie hebdo
The following stats are not averages or medians, though it would be useful to have that data along with standard deviations. Amtrak reported for 2018 that the Eagle's OTP for each station was 37%. “On-time performance” (OTP) is defined as the percentage of stations [all stations on a given route] at which a train arrives within 15 minutes of the time in the public schedule. 

JPS1 said, "In 2018 the OTP [endpoints] was 46.4 percent.

No averages, certainly no stochastic stats used, and the OTP (all stations on the route) percentage -37%- is not inconsistent with the endpoint percentage - 46.4%. 


All I am saying which seems pretty simple is that MR guy is pretty lucky to be on time in Chicago twice a year, given those percentages/probabilities. The odds are against an on-time arrival on what has been the last few years the worst-performing Amtrak route. You don't need monthly stats to see that.

MR guy will never admit that he just might be wrong, as we see in his response to n012944, who tripped him up.

 

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Posted by CMStPnP on Friday, December 20, 2019 6:02 PM

Overmod
The problem is that the 37% for what I think is supposed to be 'average percentage of lateness at one or more intermediate stations' correlates so poorly with JPS1's stats for endpoint arrivals.  That indicates to me that there is likely some delay enroute that is made up by arrival; which as I noted is immaterial to CMStP&P's observation.

Just start measuring arrival stats in Chicago from now until the day after New Years for the Texas Eagle.    If my hypothesis is correct, the train will be ontime more often during this 1-2 week period..........then the rest of the year's averages.   Exception being any severe weather that impacts train speed.

When I get back I will report which direction did what performance, since I will be on the train again vs just reading about it.   I will also be ready to do the "Church Lady" dance of vindication.....yet once again. :)

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Posted by Overmod on Friday, December 20, 2019 8:20 PM

charlie hebdo
All I am saying which seems pretty simple is that MR guy is pretty lucky to be on time in Chicago twice a year, given those percentages/probabilities.

Which is almost exactly what I understand MILW to have been saying -- that he's lucky to have been on-time every time he goes.  But I'm reserving judgment on the subsequent 'evolution' of the discussion until he states the argument deserving of the victory dance of vindication.

Thank you for better confirming what the 37% represents.

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Posted by charlie hebdo on Friday, December 20, 2019 8:33 PM

Overmod

 

 
charlie hebdo
All I am saying which seems pretty simple is that MR guy is pretty lucky to be on time in Chicago twice a year, given those percentages/probabilities.

 

Which is almost exactly what I understand MILW to have been saying -- that he's lucky to have been on-time every time he goes.  But I'm reserving judgment on the subsequent 'evolution' of the discussion until he states the argument deserving of the victory dance of vindication.

Thank you for better confirming what the 37% represents.

 

It's pointless to discuss with someone like MR guy who is always "right" and I was foolish to once again to attempt that.  

For the record,  he never linked being lucky with his trains always being in time.  Now he is contending they are on time during the holidays (seven round trips) and will prove that contention by reporting his journey. Oh well,  enjoy your holiday. 

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Posted by CMStPnP on Friday, December 20, 2019 9:14 PM

charlie hebdo
For the record,  he never linked being lucky with his trains always being in time.  Now he is contending they are on time during the holidays (seven round trips) and will prove that contention by reporting his journey. Oh well,  enjoy your holiday. 

See you can't win an argument ever on merits so you put words in other peoples mouths, name call, post provacative statements or twist what was said.    All that says is you had a weak argument to begin with that was indefensible (as usual).   The above is not what I said.   

I said on time more often then rest of the year, also didn't say holidays generically, pretty sure it is Christmas time now.....at least it is on my calendar.   

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Posted by charlie hebdo on Friday, December 20, 2019 9:54 PM

Hoisted on his own petard!

QED. 

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Posted by CMStPnP on Saturday, December 21, 2019 9:42 AM

Since youtube was mentioned I can even give everyone a preview of myself wrestling with the METRA EXPRESS and trying to clear traffic ahead of my Chicago to Milwaukee Amtrak train so I can get to Milwaukee on time.    Here is a video of me in Prairieville, Illinois trying to single handedly untangle the traffic mess caused by METRA, had to use a white horse because of the crowds but as you can see I had a little help from METRA passengers that were also fed up.........you can see some of that METRA MOW and Commuter equipment is starting to show it's age. Surprise

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nMZToxfIUAk

 

 

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Posted by PJS1 on Saturday, December 21, 2019 1:41 PM

CMStPnP
 Since youtube was mentioned I can even give everyone a preview of myself wrestling with the METRA EXPRESS and trying to clear traffic ahead of my Chicago to Milwaukee Amtrak train so I can get to Milwaukee on time.    Here is a video of me in Prairieville, Illinois trying to single handedly untangle the traffic mess caused by METRA, had to use a white horse because of the crowds but as you can see I had a little help from METRA passengers that were also fed up.........you can see some of that METRA MOW and Commuter equipment is starting to show it's age. Surprise

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nMZToxfIUAk 

A great video!  And realistic too!

Rio Grande Valley, CFI,CFII

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Posted by Gramp on Saturday, December 21, 2019 9:34 PM

A new use for coal!

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Posted by CMStPnP on Sunday, December 22, 2019 11:25 PM

See seperate thread on Texas Eagle Trip report.

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