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(Tropical storm) now hurricane Dorian CAT 3 hurricane now CAT 4, now CAT 5

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Posted by charlie hebdo on Friday, September 6, 2019 1:10 PM

zugmann

 

 
BaltACD
Now moving at 'overspeed coupling' speed - 6 MPH

 

"pin won't drop speed"

 

I wonder if any tracks are left in Alabama? 

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Posted by Overmod on Friday, September 6, 2019 12:22 PM

.

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Posted by Overmod on Tuesday, September 3, 2019 5:43 PM

blue streak 1
Has there been any notices or talk that mentions a possible storm surge from Va to New England ? 

See the link to the information bulletins earlier in the post.  Each version has a set of linked "graphics" one of which is an explicit storm-surge predictive map that updates each time the bulletin does.  Keep consulting that as the storm tracks north and east.

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Posted by zugmann on Tuesday, September 3, 2019 4:58 PM

BaltACD
Now moving at 'overspeed coupling' speed - 6 MPH

"pin won't drop speed"

It's been fun.  But it isn't much fun anymore.   Signing off for now. 


  

The opinions expressed here represent my own and not those of my employer, any other railroad, company, or person.t fun any

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Posted by blue streak 1 on Tuesday, September 3, 2019 4:53 PM

Has there been any notices or talk that mentions a possible storm surge from Va to New England ? 

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Posted by BaltACD on Tuesday, September 3, 2019 4:35 PM

blue streak 1
 
BaltACD

 Latest NWS report show the storm moving at 1 MPH 

Slower than hump speeds.  Double low girl walking speed.

Now moving at 'overspeed coupling' speed - 6 MPH

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Posted by blue streak 1 on Monday, September 2, 2019 12:40 PM

BaltACD

 Latest NWS report show the storm moving at 1 MPH

 

Slower than hump speeds.  Double low girl walking speed.

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Posted by BaltACD on Monday, September 2, 2019 9:12 AM

blue streak 1
Yesterday afternoon ( Sunday ) an outer band of Dorian dumped 1/2 inch rain on our area.  600 some miles yet a band dumped on us.  Wind was not very strong so band moved slowly over us.

Latest NWS report show the storm moving at 1 MPH

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Posted by blue streak 1 on Monday, September 2, 2019 8:47 AM

Yesterday afternoon ( Sunday ) an outer band of Dorian dumped 1/2 inch rain on our area.  600 some miles fom eye yet a band dumped on us.  Wind was not very strong so band moved slowly over us.

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Posted by blue streak 1 on Sunday, September 1, 2019 11:08 PM

a sobering thought.  what if Dorian turns north after passing North Carolina ?  the cone of unreliability does include a portion of "Sandy's" track .  All indications so far are that Dorian will turn east past NC ?  

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Posted by Erik_Mag on Sunday, September 1, 2019 1:08 PM

Predictions are being made based on where the high and low pressure zones are expected to be in the next few days. I suspect one of the reasons that it is intensifying is the lack of wind shear, as the shear interferes with cyclonic convection.

While it looks like the east coast of Florida will be spared having the eye of the storm making landfall, there will be problems with wind, rain and storm surge (which was the big troublemaker with Sandy in 2012).

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Posted by CMStPnP on Sunday, September 1, 2019 11:52 AM

blue streak 1
Brightline suspending service modified Saturday none Sun and Mon.  With the present track of Dorian heading direct to just north of Palm Beach where is Brightline going to hide its trains?  Can we expect the train maintenance shed to be able to withstand 140 MPH winds ?

Too early to tell because the storm is moving too slowly to predict where it is going to actually go.  They are making predictions based on the current map of high and low pressure zones which could shift overnight and push the hurricane back out to sea.   Once it gets past the Bahamas and within 50-60 miles of the shore the predictions will be more acurate.   

Also, the boost in category has more to do with the total time it has spent over warm water (because it is slow moving) more than it does with the warm water itself.   Most hurricanes are faster moving than this and do not have the time to intensify as much as this one did over the batch of warm water ocean.    Faster moving hurricanes would have been well up the seaboard by now.

In my view the damage done to FEC and Virgin Trains will be minimal, only because of all the railroads in the United States I think FEC is the most experienced with hurricanes via it' past.   Also, note the Virgin Rail stations are built to the most recent Hurricane standards and are concrete and steel.    Time will tell though what actually does happen.

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Posted by CMStPnP on Sunday, September 1, 2019 11:41 AM

charlie hebdo
You are simply repeating yet another of Trump's Twitter lies.  https://www.axios.com/trump-nuclear-bombs-hurricanes-97231f38-2394-4120-a3fa-8c9cf0e3f51c.html And I hope you won't run to the mod squad agajn to try to lock a thread you don't like. You are simply acting as a relay station for your hero. 

Snopes says it is unproven and that was the best it could rate it.   One reporter with unnamed sources which he will not let another reporter have access to in order to check the story (suspicious).   Axios is also been unreliable in other areas other then Trump and does not have a very good reputation for accuracy.

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/trump-nuke-hurricanes/

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Posted by blue streak 1 on Sunday, September 1, 2019 10:32 AM

Its not nice to fool with mother nature.  NHC was fooled .  Max winds now 180 MPH  gusts to know who knows what?.  Here is a link to Categories.  If you look at the scale up this would be a CAT 6 if there was one however at present not one.  

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT5+shtml/011456.shtml? 

 

Summary of the SSHWS change (highlighted in yellow):
 
Category  Previous range  New range ----------------------------------------------------------------- 1   74-95 mph  74-95 mph    64-82 kt  64-82 kt    119-153 km/h  119-153 km/h
 
2   96-110 mph  96-110 mph    83-95 kt  83-95 kt    154-177 km/h  154-177 km/h
 
3   111-130 mph  111-129 mph    96-113 kt  96-112 kt    178-209 km/h  178-208 km/h
 
4   131-155 mph  130-156 mph    114-135 kt  113-136 kt    210-249 km/h  209-251 km/h
 
5   156 mph or higher 157 mph or higher    136 kt or higher 137 kt or higher    250 km/h or higher 252 km/h or higher
 

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Posted by blue streak 1 on Sunday, September 1, 2019 4:21 AM

Possibility of CAT 5 has reduced as hurricane is stalliing over shallow Bahamas waters.  However track shifted slightly west but not over Florida yet.  This link with discussion is very informative.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT5+shtml/010859.shtml? 

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Posted by BaltACD on Saturday, August 31, 2019 5:45 PM

blue streak 1
NHC says it now has 150  MPH winds.  156 MPH will be a CAT 5. Bulletin 29A linked below..  Normal bulletins every 6 hours 0500, 1100, 1700, 2300 EDT.  regular numbers A supplement is after 3 hours.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT5+shtml/311742.shtml 

Amtrak extending cancellations thru Tuesday.

https://www.amtrak.com/alert/amtrak-to-temporarily-suspend-service-in-florida.html  

The Gulf Stream is one of the biggest hurricane steering factors and why the Outer Banks of NC always seem to be a 'hurricane magnet', as the Gulf Stream runs in to the Outer Banks and then begins its path toward the isles of Great Britian.

Jacksonville is geographically much further West than one would believe in hearing that it is on the coast.  Jacksonville is nominally due South of Pittsburgh - the Gulf Stream flows anywhere from 60 to 100 miles East of Jacksonville and the mouth of the St. John's River.

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Posted by blue streak 1 on Saturday, August 31, 2019 2:12 PM

NHC says it now has 150  MPH winds.  156 MPH will be a CAT 5. Bulletin 29A linked below..  Normal bulletins every 6 hours 0500, 1100, 1700, 2300 EDT.  regular numbers A supplement is after 3 hours.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT5+shtml/311742.shtml 

Amtrak extending cancellations thru Tuesday.

https://www.amtrak.com/alert/amtrak-to-temporarily-suspend-service-in-florida.html  

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Posted by blue streak 1 on Friday, August 30, 2019 3:37 PM

Brightline suspending service modified Saturday none Sun and Mon.  With the present track of Dorian heading direct to just north of Palm Beach where is Brightline going to hide its trains?  Can we expect the train maintenance shed to be able to withstand 140 MPH winds ?

https://www.gobrightline.com/trip/train-status 

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Posted by blue streak 1 on Friday, August 30, 2019 3:29 PM

Revised Amtrak schedule whic makes more sense.  No train going south  of JAX on Friday.  Tat probably means Amtrak will remove all rolling stock ?  No silver service Saturday from NYP but northbound from JAX.

https://www.amtrak.com/alert/amtrak-to-temporarily-suspend-service-in-florida.html 

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Posted by Overmod on Friday, August 30, 2019 10:24 AM

Flintlock76
I just love  sea songs!  (And don't they always seem to sound better when the Brits do 'em?)

Note that sea songs didn't end with the advent of steam power, especially for sons of the Tyne and Wear area...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZhCUn5xEORs

There are versions of this that don't have the specific and joyful references to British classification, but this one does.  If Mike or anyone else knows where the extended lyrics of this song can be found -- please tell!

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Posted by Flintlock76 on Friday, August 30, 2019 8:08 AM

Oh wow, Mod-man that was fantastic!  

I just love  sea songs!  (And don't they always seem to sound better when the Brits do 'em?)

Let me return the favor by taking us up to Newfoundland for a night out with "The Jolly Roving Tar."

Hurricanes and assorted "dirty weather?"  The Newfoundlanders know a bit about that too.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6y5FPDojbOE  

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Posted by Overmod on Friday, August 30, 2019 5:04 AM

Eastrail11
Let's talk about how this could possibly affect other services, like Tri-rail, Sun-rail, FEC, CSX, etc.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5h1scwwUGBI

Blow the Highballers as well as Black Ballers to Liverpool town...

 

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Posted by BaltACD on Thursday, August 29, 2019 10:35 PM

Every time I look at the Hurricane Center projections each one pushes it furhter and further South on the Florida Penninsula.  Currently centered on W. Palm Beach.

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Posted by Eastrail11 on Thursday, August 29, 2019 9:57 PM

How about we get this back on track and avoid all political talk.

Let us talk about how this could possible effect other serives, like Tri-rail, Sun-rail, FEC, CSX, etc. 

~Eastrail

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Posted by Flintlock76 on Thursday, August 29, 2019 6:30 PM

Miningman

Hey Charlie-- I had nothing whatsoever to do with locking that thread. I have never talked to a moderator or complained once. 

Baseless allegation. Perhaps the Moderator can confirm this.

 

And just who is the Moderator anyway?  Do I have to start checking the bushes around the house to see who's lurking there?

Oh, never mind, I got rid of the bushes a few years back.  I'll have to start checking under the bed, haven't looked there for a while, not since the 90's when I had a full-blown case of "Clinton Derangement Syndrome."  What a waste of energy that was...

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Posted by Miningman on Thursday, August 29, 2019 5:54 PM

Hey Charlie-- I had nothing whatsoever to do with locking that thread. I have never talked to a moderator or complained once. 

Baseless allegation. Perhaps the Moderator can confirm this.

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Posted by BaltACD on Thursday, August 29, 2019 5:38 PM

Will Mar-a-Lago get a direct hit?

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Posted by blue streak 1 on Thursday, August 29, 2019 5:01 PM

Amtrak cancelling Florida trains starting Sat thru Tuesday including Auto Train.

https://www.amtrak.com/alert/amtrak-to-temporarily-suspend-service-in-florida.html 

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Posted by Flintlock76 on Thursday, August 29, 2019 4:33 PM

I just read the linked article.

Now maybe, possibly, Mr. Trump wasn't aware of the idea of nuking hurricanes being raised as far back as the Eisenhower administration, and then dismissed as unworkable.  And if it was a question raised in a sincere desire to prevent devastation, what's wrong with that?

Anyway, the foundation of the story is an "un-named source."  I'm suspicious of those kind of stories no matter who they're aimed at, Democrat or Republican.  

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