This storm is really tracking in unknown directions. It is not expected to go over the Dominican Republic so now expected to be a CAT 3 by time it hits Florida. We can expect Amtrak service to / from Florida to be reduced probably by Saturday ? The below link will put the NE quadrant right over Jacsonville . CSX's precision scheduled RR may take a hit plus the combined dispatching location in JAX ?
All this subject to change hours ago.
https://www.palmbeachpost.com/special/storm-2019
The National Hurricane Center as of now shows Dorian as a major hurricane expected to hit Florida at Cape Canaveral on Tuesday.
Never too old to have a happy childhood!
To follow on Balt's posting of the forecast "cone", the "track" line is the center of the estimates for the position of the eye with respect to time. The eye of the hurricane could end up anywhere between Miami and the Georgia coast Sunday night.
FWIW, it would be a HUGE economic and public safety benefit to be able to have a +/-50 mile error on the hurricane track five days ahead of time. Probably the most important stumbling block to that kind of forecast accuracy is sparse data we have for the for the state of the atmosphere.
Erik_Mag FWIW, it would be a HUGE economic and public safety benefit to be able to have a +/-50 mile error on the hurricane track five days ahead of time. Probably the most important stumbling block to that kind of forecast accuracy is sparse data we have for the for the state of the atmosphere.
Or you could just nuke it.
Greetings from Alberta
-an Articulate Malcontent
Fake news put out by very bad people who think that's clever. Hidden agendas.
Silver Iodide seeding is quite effective though. Can reduce wind and rain 20-30% in some cases.
Silver iodide seeding was tried some years ago in Project Stormfury. It didn't really work out for a variety of reasons.
~Eastrail
Eastrail11I wonder how this will effect Brightline Service. Brightline is about to experience it's first hurricane.
What is the highest elevation of present tracks?
blue streak 1 Eastrail11 I wonder how this will effect Brightline Service. Brightline is about to experience it's first hurricane. What is the highest elevation of present tracks?
Eastrail11 I wonder how this will effect Brightline Service. Brightline is about to experience it's first hurricane.
I would give it in some places 2 ft (+- 6 inches) above the surrounding areas, but some places it is the same level as the surrounding areas. And in some very rare cases, the track is below the surrounding area.
MiningmanSilver Iodide seeding is quite effective though. Can reduce wind and rain 20-30% in some cases.
Problem is that the effect of seeding on a hurricane, which is a process subject to a number of effects, is not as was expected for static cloud formations. Review the account of the earlier Project Cirrus for some of the effects (and the anticipated method of action on hurricanes in particular).
The critical observation leading to cancellation of Stormfury was that the percentage of subcooled nuclei present in the eyewall was lower than expected, so reducing them to ice crystals did not produce the expected simple kinetics to move angular momentum outward and slow the winds. It's interesting (at least to me) that some of the very early observations in Cirrus were of orographic cloud formation, and the necessary action of the nucleation smoke on this, and a similar understanding of hurricane propagation might have led to a much earlier recognition of the types of 'intervention' involved and their relative lack of effectiveness in interfering with the process.
Don't know about the rest of you, but I'm looking forward to the usual news videos of the knuckleheads on Florida's east coast beaches yelling "DUDE! SURF'S UP!" and then tempting fate with their longboards as Dorian gets close to making landfall.
Always seems to happen.
Miningman Fake news put out by very bad people who think that's clever. Hidden agendas. Silver Iodide seeding is quite effective though. Can reduce wind and rain 20-30% in some cases.
You are simply repeating yet another of Trump's Twitter lies.
https://www.axios.com/trump-nuclear-bombs-hurricanes-97231f38-2394-4120-a3fa-8c9cf0e3f51c.html
And I hope you won't run to the mod squad agajn to try to lock a thread you don't like. You are simply acting as a relay station for your hero.
I just read the linked article.
Now maybe, possibly, Mr. Trump wasn't aware of the idea of nuking hurricanes being raised as far back as the Eisenhower administration, and then dismissed as unworkable. And if it was a question raised in a sincere desire to prevent devastation, what's wrong with that?
Anyway, the foundation of the story is an "un-named source." I'm suspicious of those kind of stories no matter who they're aimed at, Democrat or Republican.
Amtrak cancelling Florida trains starting Sat thru Tuesday including Auto Train.
https://www.amtrak.com/alert/amtrak-to-temporarily-suspend-service-in-florida.html
Will Mar-a-Lago get a direct hit?
Hey Charlie-- I had nothing whatsoever to do with locking that thread. I have never talked to a moderator or complained once.
Baseless allegation. Perhaps the Moderator can confirm this.
Miningman Hey Charlie-- I had nothing whatsoever to do with locking that thread. I have never talked to a moderator or complained once. Baseless allegation. Perhaps the Moderator can confirm this.
And just who is the Moderator anyway? Do I have to start checking the bushes around the house to see who's lurking there?
Oh, never mind, I got rid of the bushes a few years back. I'll have to start checking under the bed, haven't looked there for a while, not since the 90's when I had a full-blown case of "Clinton Derangement Syndrome." What a waste of energy that was...
How about we get this back on track and avoid all political talk.
Let us talk about how this could possible effect other serives, like Tri-rail, Sun-rail, FEC, CSX, etc.
Every time I look at the Hurricane Center projections each one pushes it furhter and further South on the Florida Penninsula. Currently centered on W. Palm Beach.
Eastrail11Let's talk about how this could possibly affect other services, like Tri-rail, Sun-rail, FEC, CSX, etc.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5h1scwwUGBI
Blow the Highballers as well as Black Ballers to Liverpool town...
Oh wow, Mod-man that was fantastic!
I just love sea songs! (And don't they always seem to sound better when the Brits do 'em?)
Let me return the favor by taking us up to Newfoundland for a night out with "The Jolly Roving Tar."
Hurricanes and assorted "dirty weather?" The Newfoundlanders know a bit about that too.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6y5FPDojbOE
Flintlock76I just love sea songs! (And don't they always seem to sound better when the Brits do 'em?)
Note that sea songs didn't end with the advent of steam power, especially for sons of the Tyne and Wear area...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZhCUn5xEORs
There are versions of this that don't have the specific and joyful references to British classification, but this one does. If Mike or anyone else knows where the extended lyrics of this song can be found -- please tell!
Revised Amtrak schedule whic makes more sense. No train going south of JAX on Friday. Tat probably means Amtrak will remove all rolling stock ? No silver service Saturday from NYP but northbound from JAX.
Brightline suspending service modified Saturday none Sun and Mon. With the present track of Dorian heading direct to just north of Palm Beach where is Brightline going to hide its trains? Can we expect the train maintenance shed to be able to withstand 140 MPH winds ?
https://www.gobrightline.com/trip/train-status
NHC says it now has 150 MPH winds. 156 MPH will be a CAT 5. Bulletin 29A linked below.. Normal bulletins every 6 hours 0500, 1100, 1700, 2300 EDT. regular numbers A supplement is after 3 hours.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT5+shtml/311742.shtml
Amtrak extending cancellations thru Tuesday.
blue streak 1NHC says it now has 150 MPH winds. 156 MPH will be a CAT 5. Bulletin 29A linked below.. Normal bulletins every 6 hours 0500, 1100, 1700, 2300 EDT. regular numbers A supplement is after 3 hours. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT5+shtml/311742.shtml Amtrak extending cancellations thru Tuesday. https://www.amtrak.com/alert/amtrak-to-temporarily-suspend-service-in-florida.html
The Gulf Stream is one of the biggest hurricane steering factors and why the Outer Banks of NC always seem to be a 'hurricane magnet', as the Gulf Stream runs in to the Outer Banks and then begins its path toward the isles of Great Britian.
Jacksonville is geographically much further West than one would believe in hearing that it is on the coast. Jacksonville is nominally due South of Pittsburgh - the Gulf Stream flows anywhere from 60 to 100 miles East of Jacksonville and the mouth of the St. John's River.
Possibility of CAT 5 has reduced as hurricane is stalliing over shallow Bahamas waters. However track shifted slightly west but not over Florida yet. This link with discussion is very informative.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT5+shtml/010859.shtml?
Its not nice to fool with mother nature. NHC was fooled . Max winds now 180 MPH gusts to know who knows what?. Here is a link to Categories. If you look at the scale up this would be a CAT 6 if there was one however at present not one.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT5+shtml/011456.shtml?
Summary of the SSHWS change (highlighted in yellow): Category Previous range New range ----------------------------------------------------------------- 1 74-95 mph 74-95 mph 64-82 kt 64-82 kt 119-153 km/h 119-153 km/h 2 96-110 mph 96-110 mph 83-95 kt 83-95 kt 154-177 km/h 154-177 km/h 3 111-130 mph 111-129 mph 96-113 kt 96-112 kt 178-209 km/h 178-208 km/h 4 131-155 mph 130-156 mph 114-135 kt 113-136 kt 210-249 km/h 209-251 km/h 5 156 mph or higher 157 mph or higher 136 kt or higher 137 kt or higher 250 km/h or higher 252 km/h or higher
charlie hebdoYou are simply repeating yet another of Trump's Twitter lies. https://www.axios.com/trump-nuclear-bombs-hurricanes-97231f38-2394-4120-a3fa-8c9cf0e3f51c.html And I hope you won't run to the mod squad agajn to try to lock a thread you don't like. You are simply acting as a relay station for your hero.
Snopes says it is unproven and that was the best it could rate it. One reporter with unnamed sources which he will not let another reporter have access to in order to check the story (suspicious). Axios is also been unreliable in other areas other then Trump and does not have a very good reputation for accuracy.
https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/trump-nuke-hurricanes/
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