Washington state analysis of HSR

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Washington state analysis of HSR
Posted by charlie hebdo on Thursday, July 18, 2019 7:22 AM

https://www.wsdot.wa.gov/planning/studies/ultra-high-speed-travel/2019-business-case-analysis?eType=EmailBlastContent&eId=b750174e-5d48-45cd-9cb0-4ebf290abe65

 

Key findings of this study include:

  • Less than one-hour trips between each city — Portland, Seattle, Vancouver — at about 220 mph (354 kph)
  • Various scenarios with 21 to 30 daily round trips, with some express trips stopping at only a few locations, interspersed with others that stop at more locations
  • Ultimate potential to carry 32,000 people an hour using capacity to schedule many more trains  
  • Estimate between 12 and 20 percent of total current intercity trips would shift to UHSGT
  • Estimate conservatively between 1.7 and 3.1 million riders annually when it opens
  • Estimate annual revenue of between $160 and $250 million when it opens
  • Can be built within the 2017 estimate of $24 billion to $42 billion in up-front construction costs
  • Estimate $355 billion in economic growth and 200,000 new jobs related to construction and ongoing operation of the service
  • Reduction of 6 million metric tons (tonnes) of CO2 emissions over first 40 years and potential for zero emissions by using clean energy sources (hydro, wind, solar)
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Posted by PNWRMNM on Thursday, July 18, 2019 2:30 PM

From the people who brought us the Dupont WA ATK wreck.

Highlights: Capital cost $21-42 Billion

Break even on Revenue vs Operating Cost someday depending

Assuming low 5% capital recovery on $42B have $2.1B annual capital repayment. At that rate, have $1,000 capital cost subsidy per passenger, assuming operating break even.

Claim cost $108 Billion capital cost to add one lane to I-5 in Washington.

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Posted by charlie hebdo on Thursday, July 18, 2019 2:46 PM

PNWRMNM
Claim cost $108 Billion capital cost to add one lane to I-5 in Washington.

One lane in each direction.  Do you have authoritative data that it would cost substantially less than Washington DOT estimate?

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Posted by PNWRMNM on Thursday, July 18, 2019 3:35 PM

Charlie,

You are correct, one lane in each direction.

Mac

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Posted by CMStPnP on Sunday, July 21, 2019 7:22 PM

charlie hebdo
Estimate $355 billion in economic growth and 200,000 new jobs related to construction and ongoing operation of the service

In order for that goal to be met the service has to be as or more convienent than the car, easily accessible.    In other words it has to improve the overall transportation picture vs. just supplimenting it.    Some states and localities don't think that way and think any rail passenger development is a net positive, which they find out later after spending horrendous amounts of money is not always true.

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Posted by daveklepper on Monday, July 22, 2019 8:19 AM

Decent local bus and possibly light rail and/or commuter rail connections, with more than just rush hour and weekday-only service.

Decent protected station parking that does not too expensiive.

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