Florida service gains global recognition in rebranding, but risks hard-earned identity
http://trn.trains.com/news/news-wire/2018/11/16-floridas-brightline-enters-branding-marketing-pact-with-virgin-group
Brian Schmidt, Editor, Classic Trains magazine
I think it is a smart move for Florida just for the reason the Virgin brand is more widely recognized and it would be even more favorable if Virgin Atlantic could work the Florida trains as valid connections to any flights it had arriving at Florida Orlando......this is something Amtrak has never been able to do.
CMStPnP .....it would be even more favorable if Virgin Atlantic could work the Florida trains as valid connections to any flights it had arriving at Florida Orlando.
One of the articles that I read say just that. Lots of people in the UK go to Disney World, especially in the winter, and many of them fly to Miami as opposed to Orlando because of better fares. So, a quick train ride from Miami to Orlando could appeal to many of the Brits intent on seeing Mickey and his buddies.
Rio Grande Valley, CFI,CFII
"Amtrak never...."
May not be true today, but at one time USAir showed BWI NEC connections.
They just posted an updated Brightline news story in the Trains News Wire with updated revenue stats. Wow, pretty dismal so far, hope things get better with their planned buildouts. Now, they state they might be interested in the Dallas to Houston HSR proposal. Wonder if that means they might switch to Siemens.
Their cash burn rate with their current posted deficit is NOT sustainable without a significant influx of new investment in the Billions of Dollars.
Also, I am leary of them taking over Dallas to Houston on top of all their other issues. To me it is starting to look like a desperation move to quickly build critical mass to become a too big to fail enterprise.......that eventually does fail. I think the IPO so early and without any recorded profits is probably a mistake as well.
http://trn.trains.com/news/news-wire/2018/11/18-virgin-trains-brightline-partnership-leads-to-public-offering
When I saw the IPO in the recent NewsWire article, it made me think that the Virgin deal was for name recognition to make the IPO seem like you were investing in a more established entity.
CMStPnPThey just posted an updated Brightline news story in the Trains News Wire with updated revenue stats. Wow, pretty dismal so far, hope things get better with their planned buildouts. Now, they state they might be interested in the Dallas to Houston HSR proposal. Wonder if that means they might switch to Siemens. Their cash burn rate with their current posted deficit is NOT sustainable without a significant influx of new investment in the Billions of Dollars. Also, I am leary of them taking over Dallas to Houston on top of all their other issues. To me it is starting to look like a desperation move to quickly build critical mass to become a too big to fail enterprise.......that eventually does fail. I think the IPO so early and without any recorded profits is probably a mistake as well. http://trn.trains.com/news/news-wire/2018/11/18-virgin-trains-brightline-partnership-leads-to-public-offering
Brightline between Miami and WPB is in 'competition' with the Tri-Rail Commuter line on the former CSX trackage. Tri-Rail operates frequent service making all stops between Miami and WPB.
Until Brightline has a route to Orlando and possibly Tampa they have little to offer to draw in paying passengers.
Never too old to have a happy childhood!
Excatly, bright line is only operating a small part of thier line. I don't think any one including bright line they would break even during this portion of it's start up.
Partnering with Virgin offers passengers on both side of the pond easy access to bright lines trains and virgin flights. I wonder if it will include connections with Virgin trains in London?
The losses being seen right now and for the next 3-4 years are not unexpected by Brightline. I have followed this project since literally the day after it was announced in March 2012. Their public documents over the past 4 years have always forecast a 3-4 year ramp up in ridership and revenue. And that is once the complete system is operational! Not just phase 1. The only unforeseen glitch has been the delay getting phase 2 operational, mainly due to NIMBY lawsuits.
Most people do not understand the magnitude of the entities supporting Brightline. We now have two billionaires overseeing the financing of this as well as seasoned veterans of the hospitality and transportation industries in command of running the company. The leadership knows what it is doing.
Is there a rule that says companies must be profitable before they issue an IPO? Hell, look at Tesla. Look at Amazon for many years. Look at Google for big losses long after they went public. To pick on Brightline seems nonsensical and very inconsistent with accepted practises. Every IPO carries some risk to the initial purchasers of stock.
What this IPO does do is speed up the Tampa expansion and make it possible to construct both phase 2 and the Tampa expansion at the same time (along with start the Vegas line construction). There are only so many PAB dollars available to Brightline from the US DOT. Without the IPO, I doubt they could open Tampa until the late 2020's. Now they will have Miami to Tampa open by 2023-24. It is all spelled out in the IPO prospectus document that everyone has access to and can read it in depth.
Also pay attention to the exhibits linked to in the SEC filing near the end of the document. There is a treasure trove of information there on the Siemens contract and the FECR/Brightline operating agreements. Its all out in the sunshine now. Enjoy the reading!
BaltACDBrightline between Miami and WPB is in 'competition' with the Tri-Rail Commuter line on the former CSX trackage. Tri-Rail operates frequent service making all stops between Miami and WPB. Until Brightline has a route to Orlando and possibly Tampa they have little to offer to draw in paying passengers.
I am not arguing with that. I am saying look at the number (almost $500 million) and ask yourself how long it will take Brightline to open to Orlando, add in the costs of more traincars and trainsets (they need to buy the cafe cars yet) and project that out 3-4 years and look at what they have in the bank right now.
Then pretend your an investor with money to invest. Are you going to invest it now or wait until you see some profit or indication that they might achieve their goal. So we are talking, approx a $1.5 to $2 Billion burn rate on subsidy alone before Orlando or Tampa is operational.
Brian_TampaIs there a rule that says companies must be profitable before they issue an IPO? Hell, look at Tesla. Look at Amazon for many years. Look at Google for big losses long after they went public.
The problem with your above analysis is each one of those companies had a company in the same space achieve profitability before, in regards to the tech issues by massive multiples. Likewise the average NYSE investor could see via their monetization plans and innovation in other areas that the value of the stock was worth a lot more than just the P&L and Ledger as they could spin off the innovations at some point and bring in even more money.
Where is any of that with Brightline? How do I forecast expected earnings with brightline when Amtrak's accounting is opaque and there has been nobody previous to succeed in the marketplace? You'll see this lack of confidence clearly when they issue the IPO.
To an average NYSE investor this business line is roughly equal to restarting the Zepplin Company.
The IPO is more of a risk than you realize. It could flop and drop like a rock. Facebooks IPO dropped almost 40-50% of it's initial value on issuance until investors caught on and started to believe in the monetization plans. Thankfully FB stock's IPO bounced back. If it didn't then other sources of capital would have dried up rapidly without hard assets being able to back the loans.
Railroads are a uniquely capital intensive business. Google and the other tech startups did not require billions of dollars just to employ a few hundred or few thousands of programmers in their early years. I would think seasoned or savvy investors recognize this and factor that into their decision to invest in a railroad such as Brightline. Brightline will lose about $100M a year until Orlando and/or Tampa come online. That will be in 4 years. So they will eat $400M (not factoring in any revenue) in costs before they really get their product 100% operational. The capital expenses to build and equip the Orlando and Tampa segments are baked into the cost of the project. Phase 1 I believe I read has cost around $1.5B or so. Phase 2 to Orlando is roughly $2.2B. Tampa expansion is $1.7B. Total buildout cost is around $5.5B for Miami to Tampa. A bargain compared to any government run project! Recall Tampa to Orlando HSR was to cost around $3B or more with no TOD in Tampa as a source of revenue.
A very good question is why has Amtrak screwed up their TOD opportunities with the station sites they own? Chicago, Philadelphia, NYP, etc... Why has Amtrak been unable or lack the ability to do what Brightline is doing? The difference in my mind is the quality of management and expertise. It has nothing to do with Anderson or how much subsidy it receives from the taxpayers. They have had 40 years to do something to develop RE development revenue from land they own.
CMStPnP The problem with your above analysis is each one of those companies had a company in the same space achieve profitability before, in regards to the tech issues by massive multiples. Likewise the average NYSE investor could see via their monetization plans and innovation in other areas that the value of the stock was worth a lot more than just the P&L and Ledger as they could spin off the innovations at some point and bring in even more money. Where is any of that with Brightline? How do I forecast expected earnings with brightline when Amtrak's accounting is opaque and there has been nobody previous to succeed in the marketplace? You'll see this lack of confidence clearly when they issue the IPO. To an average NYSE investor this business line is roughly equal to restarting the Zepplin Company. The IPO is more of a risk than you realize. It could flop and drop like a rock. Facebooks IPO dropped almost 40-50% of it's initial value on issuance until investors caught on and started to believe in the monetization plans. Thankfully FB stock's IPO bounced back. If it didn't then other sources of capital would have dried up rapidly without hard assets being able to back the loans.
CMStPnP BaltACD Brightline between Miami and WPB is in 'competition' with the Tri-Rail Commuter line on the former CSX trackage. Tri-Rail operates frequent service making all stops between Miami and WPB. Until Brightline has a route to Orlando and possibly Tampa they have little to offer to draw in paying passengers. I am not arguing with that. I am saying look at the number (almost $500 million) and ask yourself how long it will take Brightline to open to Orlando, add in the costs of more traincars and trainsets (they need to buy the cafe cars yet) and project that out 3-4 years and look at what they have in the bank right now. Then pretend your an investor with money to invest. Are you going to invest it now or wait until you see some profit or indication that they might achieve their goal. So we are talking, approx a $1.5 to $2 Billion burn rate on subsidy alone before Orlando or Tampa is operational.
BaltACD Brightline between Miami and WPB is in 'competition' with the Tri-Rail Commuter line on the former CSX trackage. Tri-Rail operates frequent service making all stops between Miami and WPB. Until Brightline has a route to Orlando and possibly Tampa they have little to offer to draw in paying passengers.
Brightline has never been about having a out of pocket profitable rail passenger service - the passenger service is and always has been secondary to the real estate development of the project.
Since they are building out to Tampa, I wonder if they are forgetting about Jacksonville for now if at all?
A McIntoshSince they are building out to Tampa, I wonder if they are forgetting about Jacksonville for now if at all?
Tampa is much closer to Orlando than Jacksonville.
BaltACD A McIntosh Since they are building out to Tampa, I wonder if they are forgetting about Jacksonville for now if at all? Tampa is much closer to Orlando than Jacksonville.
A McIntosh Since they are building out to Tampa, I wonder if they are forgetting about Jacksonville for now if at all?
It is more about ridership to and from Jacksonville and the rest of the Brightline system. They are following the 2006 Florida Rail Passenger Report very closely. In that report, available on the FDOT website, there is data showing the potential trips between all of the major metro areas in Florida. Jacksonville came in last for all possible routes as I recall. Tampa is first in expansion as they have more potential riders as well as better TOD opportunities than Jacksonville. Also, Miami to Jacksonville is at the upper limit of the too far to drive and too close to fly distance range. Tampa is an hour from Orlando because they will run at 125 mph over 80+ miles of track. Jacksonville is accessible only with 110 mph maximum infrastructure over a much longer distance.
Brian_Tampa BaltACD A McIntosh Since they are building out to Tampa, I wonder if they are forgetting about Jacksonville for now if at all? Tampa is much closer to Orlando than Jacksonville. It is more about ridership to and from Jacksonville and the rest of the Brightline system. They are following the 2006 Florida Rail Passenger Report very closely. In that report, available on the FDOT website, there is data showing the potential trips between all of the major metro areas in Florida. Jacksonville came in last for all possible routes as I recall. Tampa is first in expansion as they have more potential riders as well as better TOD opportunities than Jacksonville. Also, Miami to Jacksonville is at the upper limit of the too far to drive and too close to fly distance range. Tampa is an hour from Orlando because they will run at 125 mph over 80+ miles of track. Jacksonville is accessible only with 110 mph maximum infrastructure over a much longer distance.
Jacksonville is not a part of ANYTHING that Brightline would operate to or through Orlando. Don't think about using the FEC routing to Jacksonville as that would be WPB to Jax and bypassing Orlando.
Remember this is a real estate play, not a passenger train play. From observations there is not that much developable real estate between WPB and Jax - most as already been developed.
BaltACDRemember this is a real estate play, not a passenger train play. From observations there is not that much developable real estate between WPB and Jax - most as already been developed.
Not so sure they wouldn't extend to Jacksonville at some point. Daytona Beach as well as the Daytona 500 are pretty big draws and both are up the coast more towards Jacksonville. Also the NEC is creaping South slowly but surely, there might also be benefit in closing the gap.
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