FYI-,
They just told the Houston Business Journal (sorry I cannot provide a link because digital content is subscription only)........they told the Business Journal they will break ground in 2018 for this system and complete in 2021 or 2022. So that would imply they need a substantial financial investment within the next 18-20 months to put the contracts out. The clock is ticking.
Rio Grande Valley, CFI,CFII
It appears that Texas Legislators are running a desperate attempt to derail the HSR projects. Total of 18 bills in state legislature. What are they so afraid of ? Could it be that direction is coming from national sources afraid that the project will start a national movement to HSR ?
http://www.chron.com/news/houston-texas/texas/article/Lawmakers-rain-down-anti-rail-bills-10948520.php#photo-11351368
blue streak 1 What are they so afraid of ?
Here is part of the issue, as taken from the article: "Texas Central has failed to demonstrate a viable or comprehensive plan addressing the real mobility needs of our state, and the legislation filed today seeks to address the legitimate issues posed by this project."
This was also a finding of the study by Baruch Feigenbaum, which was discussed in another thread before it was locked and taken down because several participants attacked the study's sponsor rather than its content.
Although the Texas Central Railway will connect two of the states biggest metro areas, I-45, which connects them, is not clogged with traffic, as shown by Feigenbaum's study. It draws heavily on TXDOT data.
I-35 corridor between DFW and San Antonio, which has been indentified by TXDOT as the most congested corridor in Texas and one of the most congested corridors in the United States, is the problem. It cries out for alternatives, one of which could be better passenger rail. But this does not fit the Japanese model, which is a solution chasing a problem.
It is always easy for those whose farm is not being cut in half or taken to say that it is in the interest of progress. Not so much for those who lose their property irrespective of how much they get for it!. Money does not compensate for personal value.
JPS1This was also a finding of the study by Baruch Feigenbaum, which was discussed in another thread before it was locked and taken down because several participants attacked the study's sponsor rather than its content.
Fact: The author is generally anti-rail, anti- rail transit. Disclosure of his writings lets others judge his studies more accurately.
"Federal Transportation Overhaul" (2015) Argues for a complete overhaul of transportation funding for the nation's highways.
"Transit should stay on the Road" (2014) Opposes Marta rail.
C&NW, CA&E, MILW, CGW and IC fan
blue streak 1 It appears that Texas Legislators are running a desperate attempt to derail the HSR projects. Total of 18 bills in state legislature. What are they so afraid of ? Could it be that direction is coming from national sources afraid that the project will start a national movement to HSR ? http://www.chron.com/news/houston-texas/texas/article/Lawmakers-rain-down-anti-rail-bills-10948520.php#photo-11351368
Texas does not like to subsidize out of the general revenue fund. There is not really a funding source for this. TRE and DART are funded via a % of the sales tax within the regions they operate (otherwise known as a sales tax district). So the fear is the Texas Central is being overly secretive on funding and some people suspect they will get started and not have enough money to complete construction OR they will complete construction and not be a viable profit producing company.
All Aboard Florida does not have the issue because they have a large company behind it with adequate resources for the near term. Texas Central in contrast I think only has approx $70 million in private financing so far. Not enough for construction or for subsidy of the system once it is up and running and a portion of the $70 million is based on real estate development projects at each terminus......which have yet to be approved.
The Heartland Flyer people before that service started had to obtain I believe a loan for rehab of Amtrak equipment, Oklahoma paid the whole subsidy for running the train through 2006 all by itself (which was a deal for Texas) but I think now Texas contributes. So as the subsidy has increased it has been Oklahoma that faces the risk not Texas because I think Texas has the contribution capped and fixed in the budget. I think Oklahoma has to approve the subsidy each year if I am not mistaken. On the Texas side I think it is baked into the budget at a no more than x amount figure........which I think Texas will have to increase at some point because eventually Oklahoma will balk. Everytime the subsidy increases Oklahoma I think covers the increase so I am not sure what Texas is paying for the annual subsidy.
According to the September 14, 2018 issue of Progressive Railroading, which is quoting an article from the Dallas Morning News, Texas Central Railway has obtained a $300 million loan, backed by Japanese sources, to advance permitting, design and engineering on the project.
According to TCR officials, when the loan proceeds are added to current equity, the company will have all the committed capital required to construct the project. It is not clear whether construction has been authorized.
The project is under environmental review by the Federal Railroad Administration. It appears that the project is a go.
PJS1 According to the September 14, 2018 issue of Progressive Railroading, which is quoting an article from the Dallas Morning News, Texas Central Railway has obtained a $300 million loan, backed by Japanese sources, to advance permitting, design and engineering on the project. According to TCR officials, when the loan proceeds are added to current equity, the company will have all the committed capital required to construct the project. It is not clear whether construction has been authorized. The project is under environmental review by the Federal Railroad Administration. It appears that the project a go.
The project is under environmental review by the Federal Railroad Administration. It appears that the project a go.
I think previously they had $250-300 million commitment by various Real Estate, Construction Companies and Engineering Firms. So by my math with this loan we are up to $600 million at the most for a projected $10-15 Billion construction project.
It is positive that they landed Bechtel, Inc as the General Contractor because they are a high quality / no B.S. firm. So to me that says somehow they convinced Bechtel the project had a high certainty of completion. I am still not convinced myself until I know where the bulk of the $10-15 Billion is comming from. I don't see the Feds fronting that kind of money for a HSR project without a majority vote of Congress. We all know which way that vote is going to end up once the lobbyists get involved.
You might want to look into the history of the bullet train, and what it means to the Japanese. Hideo Shima was the driving force behind the creation of shinkansen. The political landscape he navigated through was very difficult. The role the bullet train played in showcasing the new Japan to the world during the 1964 Olympics there was a major psychological boost for the Japanese.
Since that time the bullet trains have transported over 5 BILLION people (passenger trips) on the original route connecting Tokyo, Nagoya, and Osaka (Japan's largest cities) without a passenger fatality.
The Japanese are determined to export this technology, but there are few true opportunities for this technology. The US is the plum. We're mired with what is essentially a 19th/early 20th century Lionel set.
What I've seen is a very measured, sound approach by the people of Texas Central to creating something new. And I think there's a lot of Japanese knowhow and backing involved. They've selected a route with excellent potential. Two of the most economically dynamic cities in the US in a dynamic state.
Spend some time with Texas Central's website. Get behind this thing, and quit trying to shoot holes in it. There are always multiple reasons why something won't work, and one reason why it will.
We have a problem using Japaneese technology. As we understand it the operational software is completely incompatible with present operations in the USA. No way for shared tracks in the last mile urban congestion settings.
That might be the reason for not using Dallas Union station or go to downtown Houston ? Of course another item is to avoiid crash energy management problems using other RR tracks ?
Gramp The Japanese are determined to export this technology, but there are few true opportunities for this technology. The US is the plum. What I've seen is a very measured, sound approach by the people of Texas Central to creating something new.
What I've seen is a very measured, sound approach by the people of Texas Central to creating something new.
You are correct. The Japanese are determined to export their high-speed train technology. And they have found an alliance in Texas as well as a route that fits their technology.
Whether the I-45 corridor in Texas is the one most in need of an alternative to driving and flying is another matter. So, is TCR the optimum solution to Texas’ passenger transport problem(s), or is it a solution chasing a problem?
Outside of Bryan/College Station there are no sizeable communities between the Dallas and Houston. On the other hand, according to TXDOT, the I-35 corridor between DFW and San Antonio, which includes Waco, Temple, Austin, and San Marcos, is one of the most congested corridors in Texas.
For my money upgrading passenger rail service along the I-35 corridor, with its numerous intermediate markets, could pay greater dividends for Texas than a high-speed train along the I-45 corridor.
A potential customer survey conducted for TCR indicated that a high percentage of the people queried indicated that they would be inclined to take the high-speed train. However, it appears that they were just ask a simple question or two as to whether the would ride it. Noting about fares, schedules, etc.!
As far as I know the project promotors have not published any meaningful financial information, i.e. construction budgets, operating budgets, etc. Until these documents are forthcoming, claims that the project will be financially successful and, therefore, not require any taxpayer dollars is suspect.
They're asking for trouble if they are going to let the government get involved in their project.
runnerdude48 They're asking for trouble if they are going to let the government get involved in their project.
TCR officials claim that they have not sought or accepted any direct government financing. But they have to clear a variety of federal and state regulatory hurdles before they can begin construction.
I hope TCR is successful. But they have a lot of hurdles to overcome. Perhaps the greatest one will be convincing Texans to leave their cars at home when traveling between Dallas and Houston.
One of the things that seems to be missing from the TCR planning is the accelerated development of smart cars. If they achieve their expected outcomes, they could go a long way in relieving the anticipated traffic congestion on I-45.
Gramp There are always multiple reasons why something won't work, and one reason why it will.
It is just the opposite. For TCR to be successful the promotors need effective marketing, financing, operating, construction, and regulatory plans. They need to manage many inputs well to be successful.
But PJS1, why should they be providing that info to us? They're a private business.
And the needs of the I-35 corridor are not germane in this instance. This business has decided it wants to move people where it wants to move people. In essence, it's not about central planning by some politburo. (Otherwise, we *are* a lost cause. The "useful idiots" have prevailed).
Also, again, this will be a new creation with proven systems, gratefully not needing to connect to the current rail network, and be subservient to many standards that in this case may not apply. No freight train interference, no grade crossings, much of it elevated. (Not saying there aren't challenges to address).
blue streak 1We have a problem using Japaneese technology. As we understand it the operational software is completely incompatible with present operations in the USA. No way for shared tracks in the last mile urban congestion settings. That might be the reason for not using Dallas Union station or go to downtown Houston ? Of course another item is to avoiid crash energy management problems using other RR tracks ?
I think its #1 the Japan solution requires absolute seperation of their trains from all others........however, even if they could share the tracks.....
Dallas Union Station already has a space / capacity issue with number of tracks and limited land space available for expansion. 2 tracks owned by DART with fairly heavy LRT usuage, 2 tracks owned by TRE, 1 track used by Amtrak........thats it for Union Station in Dallas 5 total tracks with 2-3 external Freight tracks shared by UP, BNSF, DGNO, and transfer runs. There is only space for 7-8 tracks total between where DUS starts and the Hyatt Regency - Dallas Property Begins. The only way they can add tracks is to narrow the platforms back to how narrow they used to be OR attempt an elevated level over the existing set of tracks. Narrowing the platforms would only add probably an additional 3 maybe 4 tracks at the most. Barely enough for frequent HSR runs to Houston and Fort Worth.
I wish they would have consolidated at DUS but the walk between DUS and the future HSR terminal is not that far. Plus both the LRT and streetcar should come close to connecting the two.
Gramp But PJS1, why should they be providing that info to us? They're a private business.
TCR is a private business that wants to operate in the public domain.
They want to use eminent domain where landowners will not voluntarily grant them a right-of-way through their property. So, they are not quite as private as professed.
Although TCR claims that it will take no public monies, this is only applies to direct monies. And their stance could change in a heartbeat.
TXDOT, using federal monies, performed the early environmental impact studies of potential high speed rail lines in Texas. TCR has benefited from these studies.
If TCR follows the example of All Abord Florida, they may apply for low cost, government backed debt financing, which is a form of indirect taxpayer support.
TCR has executed a through ticketing arrangement with Amtrak, which is a taxpayer supported business albeit a failed one. Indirectly TCR will benefit from Amtrak's reservation system. And Amtrak is heavily dependent on taxpayer support.
It is good public relations. A number of private companies, including BNSF, are not required to file SEC Finanical Reports. But in the interest of transparency they do so. TCR should take a page from their playbook.
If TCR turns out to be an operating failure, what are the public consequences? No one knows. One possibility is the taxpayers will be required to bail it out. No? How about Auto Train as an example. It was a private venture until it wasn't. Amtrak took it over, and the taxpayers have been covering its losses ever since.
In the trains newswire (link below). The French complain. I agree and like the SNCF designed trains better than the Japaneese but oh well, Texas has the money for either design.
http://trn.trains.com/news/news-wire/2018/09/19-french-rail-firm-miffed-by-japanese-loan-to-texas-high-speed-project
Well the French had their chance to jump in. Sort of sour grapes. SCNF may have been preparing to put in a bi. Of course they can raise the stakes.
Personally think the unique Japaneese system is too incompatible with US FRA requirements ? Have to wonder how PTC will fit in all of this ??
blue streak 1 Well the French had their chance to jump in. Sort of sour grapes. SCNF may have been preparing to put in a bi. Of course they can raise the stakes. Personally think the unique Japaneese system is too incompatible with US FRA requirements ? Have to wonder how PTC will fit in all of this ??
At least two of the Texas Central Railway Board of Directors may have significant ties to key Japanese business and government leaders.
One was employed in the corporate finance unit at Nomura Securities in Tokyo. Another served as the Chief of Staff for the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Asian and Pacific Security Affairs and the Special Assistant to the Deputy Under Secretary of Defense for Asia-Pacific, who was responsible to the Secretary of Defense for policies and practices advancing United States national security objectives in the Asian and Pacific region. Both probably developed meaningful relationships with influential Japanese business and government leaders.
You can get their names, if that is important, as well as additional bio information at this link:
https://www.bloomberg.com/research/stocks/private/board.asp?privcapId=307548324
TCR is being pushed by people in Texas with ties to Japan and the Japanese railway equipment manufacturers. They have a leg up on any other potential participants.
Eminent domain.
TCR's website (fact vs. myth) states that they are committed to work with every landowner in a fair manner regarding their needs.
Virtually all real property is subject to public domain issues, be it easements, assessments, codes, etc. My personal experience includes being one of 20 homeowners with property a school district wanted to buy using funds raised by the school's booster club (not tax dollars) to expand and improve a high school's athletic facilities to bring them up to the standard of other, newer high schools in the district. One owner, who had his property for sale at the time the school plan was introduced, then took it off the market, brought up eminent domain fears and used other tactics to try to gain a higher sale price for his property. The district pointed out it wasn't interested in eminent domain though it lawfully could use it. It wanted to be in harmonious relations with its neighbors. It was stupid not to. As a result of this owner's actions, the other owners were put into limbo for four years before things were worked out.
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