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Financial analysts, corporate planners, etc. look at trends as opposed to one-offs.  So I decided to look at the longer terms trends of the Amtrak trains that serve Texas, i.e. Texas Eagle, Sunset Limited, and Heartland Flyer.  I am calling it Amtrak Texas.  The data was compiled from the 2009 – 2013 Amtrak Monthly Operating reports, as well as the corresponding annual reports for 2009 – 2012.  The FY13 Annual Report is not available on-line. Between 2009 and 2013 Texas Eagle revenues increased 40.2 per cent, whilst the number of riders increased 30.6 per cent.  Sleeping car passengers increased 31.8 per cent, while the percentage of Eagle passengers booking sleeping car accommodations stayed steady at 11.8 per cent.  The average load factor increased from 60.1 per cent to 75.0 per cent. Total costs before OPEBS increased 32.7, whilst OPEBS increased 20 per cent.  These costs were before depreciation, interest, and miscellaneous charges.  Unfortunately, because of a larger cost basis, the losses on the Eagle, before depreciation and interest, increased from $25.6 million in FY9 to $32.2 million in FY13.  Thus, despite the increase in riders and revenues, the loss increased by $6.6 million or $4.3 million in constant dollars. From 2009 through 2013 Sunset Limited revenues increased 45.3 per cent, and the number of riders increased 30.7 per cent.  Sleeping car passengers increased 21.4 per cent, but the percentage of passengers booking sleeping car space declined from 19.5 per cent to 18.4 per cent.  The average load factor increased from 40.2 per cent to 51.9 per cent.  Total costs before OPEBS increased 19.0, whilst OPEBS increased 7.1 per cent.  These costs were before depreciation, interest, and miscellaneous charges.  Again, because of a larger cost basis, the losses on the Limited, before depreciation and interest, increased from $30.6 million in FY9 to $40.9 million in FY13.  Thus, despite the increase in riders and revenues, the loss increased by $10.3 million or $7.5 million in constant dollars. During the same period revenues for the Heartland Flyer increased 14.9 per cent, whilst the number of riders increased 10.4 per cent.  The average load factor increased from 40.5 per cent to 44.3 per cent. Total costs before OPEBS increased 38.5 per cent, whilst OPEBS were flat at $200,000 per year.  These costs were before depreciation, interest, and miscellaneous charges.  The losses on the Flyer, before depreciation and interest, increased from $2 million in FY9 to $3.4 million in FY13.  Thus, despite the increase in riders and revenues, the loss increased by $1.4 million or $1.2 million in constant dollars. Although all three trains showed a significant increase in riders and revenues, the incremental revenue increases were not sufficient to overcome the incremental increase in costs.  The Eagle added coach and sleeping car capacity, yet it did not attract enough revenue to offset the incremental increase in the cost of the incremental capacity.  This suggests that just adding capacity will not necessarily generate a better financial outcome.  Another takeaway from this analysis is to be weary of one-off announcements, i.e. ridership increased during the last quarter, etc., especially those that give only part of the picture.  It is important to look at the complete date over time to detect any meaningful trends.
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