Lynchburg Tain

[Phoebe Vet]

Parking is probably the biggest factor in pushing people to mass transit when going to a city center.

In most large cities it is cheaper to buy a monthly bus/train pass than it is to park your car for the same month.  That doesn't even consider the cost of owning and operating the car.

[jeaton]

When you drive to DC where do you park?

[oltmannd]

blue streak 1

Driving US 29 from Danville or Lynchburg to Washington is no picnic until you can get on I-66 near Manassas. Anyone driven it lately and know the travel times?

I drove it all the way from DC to Greensboro. It's not the best road, but you can make OK time on it. Times were in line with what my GPS predicted. Google maps gives 3:36 for DC - Lynchburg. Probably not bad assuming a non rush hour time. An extra 30 minutes or so would be a good cushion for rush hour in DC.

[blue streak 1]

Another caveat  is the December snow storm. Don't know if all LYH trains operated  every day but certainly the snow affected ridership. The same goes triple for January snow storms so any Jan figure will need to be looked at with the Jan snowstorms a consideration. Still an average of almost 180/day/train in DEC is not shabby.

All this silver lining needs some down to earth thinking. One reason this route is doing so well is the drive from Danville/ Lynchburg - Wash. There is no interstate road with only a few bypasses around some villages.  Driving US 29 from Danville or Lynchburg to Washington is no picnic until you can get on I-66 near Manassas. Anyone driven it lately and know the travel times?

What could this mean for Va and maybe the nation? Do not build an interstate type highway.The Lynchburg NS (SOU)  route can have completely restored double track with speed improvements using a lot less transportation funds such as Va is planning for the I-81 route. Lynchburg is a 173 mile route that is the same distance as CLT - Raleigh but CLT - RGH is :25 quicker than LYH - WAS routes because of the NC DOT improvements. The 9 mile WASH - ALX :17 - :25 needs tightening. Suspect that the upgrade costs for LYH will be a lot less than NC but could be wrong.   

It would take 4.8 additional train sets for 2 Hr. service and 9.6 train sets for hourly service. I know equipment - equipment - equipment.

 

[blue streak 1]

schlimm

CMStPnP

 Here is the news article link that I found on this if anyone is interested:

 

 http://www2.newsadvance.com/lna/news/local/article/lynchburg_amtrak_line_posted_profit_in_second_month/24136/

 

That's amazing, almost like in Field of Dreams - "Build it and they will come!"  I suppose someone will challenge those numbers, but they show that the support is there.

The item that makes this more amazing is that with the exception of Charlottesville I know of no feeder transportation options as yet to any RR station unless someone knows of some. I do not count the VRE feeders which may or may not be feeding the AMTRAK/VRE Manassas station. Of course the next "nice" problem will be the lack of parking.

[henry6]

What's so amazing?  The Downeaster service was recieved the same way as were a lot of the California services; NJT's MidTown direct commuter service outran first year projections in the first month of operations. The point to be learned: when a service is properly, honestly, seriously, and professionally provided without reservations, it works.  Putting one train on one track twice a day and it doesn't work is not honestly providing a service in most cases.  But when it melds and works with other trains it can make the running of all the trains a real service.

But don't get me wrong...while it appears to be a field of dreams it is actually good research, good marketing, and professionally providing the service with enthusiasm and conviction.

[schlimm]

CMStPnP

 Here is the news article link that I found on this if anyone is interested:

 

 http://www2.newsadvance.com/lna/news/local/article/lynchburg_amtrak_line_posted_profit_in_second_month/24136/

 

That's amazing, almost like in Field of Dreams - "Build it and they will come!"  I suppose someone will challenge those numbers, but they show that the support is there.

[blue streak 1]

CMStPnP

 Here is the news article link that I found on this if anyone is interested:

 

     http://www2.newsadvance.com/lna/news/local/article/lynchburg_amtrak_line_posted_profit_in_second_month/24136/

 

Activated

[CMStPnP]

 Here is the news article link that I found on this if anyone is interested:

 

 http://www2.newsadvance.com/lna/news/local/article/lynchburg_amtrak_line_posted_profit_in_second_month/24136/

[oltmannd]

blue streak 1

The hard question about Greensboro would be its departure time of 5:30

Probably about the same "set the alarm" time as you'd have to catch and AM flight....

[oltmannd]

blue streak 1

Don where did you find that figure?

Divided revenue by ridership in the Trains blurb.

[oltmannd]

schlimm

oltmannd

Makes you wonder what would happen if they extended the Lynchburg train all the way down to Greensboro NC.

 

But would the added distance reduce equipment/crew utilization if you could only make one run/day?

One more crew. That's it.

[blue streak 1]

schlimm

[But would the added distance reduce equipment/crew utilization if you could only make one run/day?

Equipment no - but crew yes -- not enough rest time in Greensboro - might as well go to CLT and use that crew base for the required extra crew. That requirement definitely changes the metrics.

The many passengers on this Lynchburg train begs the question. As many past threads noted coach seats north of Charlottesville often were sold out on the Cresent. A needed item is the number of Passengers boarding at Charlottesville on this new train. The number south of Charlottesville may give the state of Va an idea of the potential demand south. Anyone know how many passengers on the Cardinal CVS- WASH? Daily service that time slot would be interesting. 

On another post the mention of San Diego brings forward what has happpened on the PDX - SEA runs. AMTRAK ran extra talgos on that route during this last Thanksgiving (don't know about Xmas). It may be that this LYH route will demonstrate the tipping point for explosive growth following more service. I have no idea. More service means of course more infrastructure improvements on the NS tracks.  

AMTRAK reports also indicate the WAS - Newport news route almost meets operating costs. That could mean that Va will not have to pay much for the operating costs of the additional R'IC - WAS NEC service.  

[schlimm]

oltmannd

Has anybody looked at the numbers for the two IL routes where service was doubled a couple of years ago to see if the second train on the route improved the overall picture for the routes?

 

Harvey should have that info, IMO.

[schlimm]

oltmannd

Makes you wonder what would happen if they extended the Lynchburg train all the way down to Greensboro NC.

 

But would the added distance reduce equipment/crew utilization if you could only make one run/day?

[blue streak 1]

oltmannd

There is something interesting thing going on with this train. The avg fare is $53/ passenger which is more than the fare from Lynchburg to DC. What does this mean? I think it means that the typical rider is travelling to and from points north of DC. This service works because it is an extension of the NEC.

Another interesting fact is the Crescent ridership from Danville of roughly 30 per train. Makes you wonder what would happen if they extended the Lynchburg train all the way down to Greensboro NC.

 

Don where did you find that figure? That is great news for AMTRAK. Of course business class skews the average fare slightly. I do hope that the contract of Amtrak and Va DOT calls for a complete break down of each city pair ridership. Will be interesting to see if the stillborn VRE - MARC service could now work.

Your point of an extension of the NEC means that the north of WASH portion of the train will have  a higher load factor between stations than otherwise occurred. The figures of the average number of additional passengers is important.

The hard question about Greensboro would be its departure time of 5:30 and arrival of 2230 hrs. Definitely better than present Cresent times.

Maybe eventually aother rain?  

[oltmannd]

There is something interesting thing going on with this train. The avg fare is $53/ passenger which is more than the fare from Lynchburg to DC. What does this mean? I think it means that the typical rider is travelling to and from points north of DC. This service works because it is an extension of the NEC.

Another interesting fact is the Crescent ridership from Danville of roughly 30 per train. Makes you wonder what would happen if they extended the Lynchburg train all the way down to Greensboro NC.

[oltmannd]

henry6

TRAINS' Newswire 2/16 story on Lynchburg train making a profit is quite intrestng on several notes. First that it is making a profit in its second month negating the need for a state subsidy.  Second that because of this train seats have opened up on the Crescent which has gone to the Crescent's bottom line making it's economics more favorable.  I think it underscores the fact that if you think of running passenger trains as a service rather than merely running trains, it will work.  The train makes one round trip a day but it is in addition to other trains on the route.  Maine's Downeaster service and California's San Diego service, among others, have proven this point in the past,  It is just not a point that gets through the crania of politicos!

Has anybody looked at the numbers for the two IL routes where service was doubled a couple of years ago to see if the second train on the route improved the overall picture for the routes?

[henry6]

TRAINS' Newswire 2/16 story on Lynchburg train making a profit is quite intrestng on several notes. First that it is making a profit in its second month negating the need for a state subsidy.  Second that because of this train seats have opened up on the Crescent which has gone to the Crescent's bottom line making it's economics more favorable.  I think it underscores the fact that if you think of running passenger trains as a service rather than merely running trains, it will work.  The train makes one round trip a day but it is in addition to other trains on the route.  Maine's Downeaster service and California's San Diego service, among others, have proven this point in the past,  It is just not a point that gets through the crania of politicos!