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[quote user="Euclid"]I refer to Amtrak’s new lapse in safety training as a “turnaround” or “U”-turn because it is a diametrical change in direction that is apparently quite recent. Thus there has not been enough time for many accidents resulting from the turnaround.[/quote] Why do you always need to explain what you meant? The two most referred accidents that fit into you turnaround picture are include in the posted statistics for 2017. And there is no turnaround to be seen. And it doesn't seem a recent change in management direction. Joe sent his letters since 2012, IIRC. [quote user="Euclid"]But because the turnaround seems to head in a new direction that is prone to causing accidents, I would call that new direction a “trend” even though the number of accidents so far may be only a few, and thus not seem to be a trend on a statistical basis.[/quote] To start a new trend were are those accidents in 2018? And with commissioning of PTC the number of those high fatalities accidents caused by human error will decrease. At least that is what PTC was developed for. [quote user="Euclid"]And that is the problem with statistics. In the case of 501, the statistics show only the fatal consequences of one wreck directly caused by human error. At the same time, those statistics utterly fail to show the institutional incompetence and wrongheaded safety culture of Amtrak that will be found to have played a far greater role in the cause of the accident than the engineer’s human error.[/quote] Is there institutional incompetence and wrongheaded safety culture? Where is the proof? I don't exclude it but I wait for the judgement of those with more insight, NTSB. [quote user="Euclid"]I don’t have the full picture, but from widespread reporting, we have learned that Amtrak and perhaps other politicians rushed the startup of the new train in the face of inadequate crew training. [/quote] What I understood is that WSDOT scheduled the first revenue run and Amtrak didn't intervene. [quote user="Euclid"]Incredibly, at the start of the first run, the engineer seems to allude to an issue of being unfamiliar with the route.[/quote] Please re-read the forward looking camera's read-out. He talk about the north end: 6:17:22 ENG they’ve been changing so much, I still get lost sometimes down here if they send me down, like, main three down in, like, kelso or something [laughing] Kelso: <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Cowlitz_County_Washington_Incorporated_and_Unincorporated_areas_Kelso_Highlighted.svg">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Cowlitz_County_Washington_Incorporated_and_Unincorporated_areas_Kelso_Highlighted.svg</a> [quote user="Euclid"]It appears that this Amtrak institutional failure leading to potential accidents may be developing much faster than the statistical record of accidents. Amtrak’s internal problem is a leading indicator. The statistical record is a lagging indicator. So the news today may not be the twenty years of statistics showing everything is okay, but rather, a sudden and abrupt reversal of that trend. [/quote] Well, the statistic ends on December 31st, 2017 without reversal of the trend, it lags 8 month. But which are the Amtrak accidents in 2018 that show the reversal of the trend? As said before, that doesn't mean everything is OK at Amtrak, but it doesn't proof otherwise. With bad will one could read from the statistics that the safety record got better with veteran engineers retiring but that is a forbidden linking. Regards, Volker
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