Nice to see.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/travel/news/brightline-unveils-new-all-station-shared-pass-for-orlando-south-florida/ar-AA1inN0Z?ocid=winp1taskbar&cvid=cc4c6355b20545278eb36e26da8d642a&ei=21
It looks like Brightline is a success.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7BkhMwV8NBw&t=4s
Virgin's Hyperloop One is shutting down. Will this help Brightline avoid any adverse rullings during Virgin;s suit against Brightline?
The hyperloop is dead for real this time - The VergeThe hyperloop is dead for real this time - The Verge
Hyperloop One to Shut Down After Raising Millions to Reinvent Transit - Bloomberg
blue streak 1Will this help Brightline avoid any adverse rullings during Virgin;s suit against Brightline?
I don't see any connection between the two. Are you saying that you see funding suddenly shifting to high speed rail because the hyperloop is being looked at now using the context of the reality we all live in? If so, don't get your hopes up.
Brightline still has to prove itself financially as a stand alone rail passenger service. There are still railfans running around today thinking it is just a real estate development play. Which I think has yet to be proven beyond conjecture, since it is a private company and nobody has access to it's internal finances nor has any idea what the business decisions Brightline makes are based on. So Brightline business objectives are very much conjecture and we need to see a demonstrated record of financial profitability first I think.
Brightline has implied once the extension to Tampa opens they will be bringing in close to $1 Billion in gross revenue, but that does not tell anyone what the operating costs or profit margin will be or if the $1 Billion is the whole business or just from the rail passenger service.
Brightline is still a very opaque company and business model still.
CMStPnP blue streak 1 Will this help Brightline avoid any adverse rullings during Virgin;s suit against Brightline? I don't see any connection between the two. Are you saying that you see funding suddenly shifting to high speed rail because the hyperloop is being looked at now using the context of the reality we all live in? If so, don't get your hopes up. Brightline still has to prove itself financially as a stand alone rail passenger service. There are still railfans running around today thinking it is just a real estate development play. Which I think has yet to be proven beyond conjecture, since it is a private company and nobody has access to it's internal finances nor has any idea what the business decisions Brightline makes are based on. So Brightline business objectives are very much conjecture and we need to see a demonstrated record of financial profitability first I think. Brightline has implied once the extension to Tampa opens they will be bringing in close to $1 Billion in gross revenue, but that does not tell anyone what the operating costs or profit margin will be or if the $1 Billion is the whole business or just from the rail passenger service. Brightline is still a very opaque company and business model still.
blue streak 1 Will this help Brightline avoid any adverse rullings during Virgin;s suit against Brightline?
I do not think they have determined damages yet. Maybe this will have an impact.
https://apnews.com/article/virgin-brightline-florida-trains-lawsuit-56a53e1cf003f5180729bbcbb46fb80b
rdamonI do not think they have determined damages yet.
Problem is that Brightline had no objective way to gauge the loss in interest due to retention of the Virgin branding. It was added, originally, principally to enhance the value of the railroad asset. Surprisingly to Wes Edens, the service made an above-the-rail profit recently. The immediate questions are (1) how much of that profitability could have been attributed to the Virgin brand on the trains in the United States, and (2) did terminating that branding 'for cause' reduce the passenger numbers riding the Brightline trains.
I think the ruling concerns something different: the 'badmouthing' involved in Brightline's gratuitous explanation why they terminated the arrangement. I would personally agree that Virgin is a 'tarnished brand' to a transportation enterprise -- their damn airline went through bankruptcy proceedings and their rail operating contracts are in trouble; no one cares about other operations. But you say it objectively, with no hint of 'interference with a business relationship'.
I don't think anything has really changed regarding the business model behind the Brightline Florida investment. We noted recently that the rights for service to Jacksonville, either by extension up FEC or through renovation and construction of, say, a line through Sanford, have been in place 'since the beginning'. Since the Fortress real-estate interest is elsewhere, you see the announced priority... extension to the West Coast, probably after some critical mass of real-estate construction and acquisition is finished and tenanted, and service to the north only after any West Coast synergy is 'operative'.
Now, the unexpected profitability might lead to some level of rebuilding -- probably not to 100mph standards -- north of Cocoa using the FEC rights. But I doubt it would be to HrSR until there was assured associated demand in the areas involved. That time will probably come, but not until the greener pastures have been effectively developed...
rdamonI do not think they have determined damages yet. Maybe this will have an impact.
I think Branson has a weak case and one could make the argument the British court is biased given it is a British subject involved that has a lot of money and influence in the UK. I think if they settle it will be for a fraction of the amount being asked but I think what is probably going to happen here is Brightline will win on appeal or use the political route.
https://commercialobserver.com/2023/12/brightlines-expanded-service-brings-ridership-bump/?fbclid=IwAR0RherAseZzM2H4x7d7IJN4aSkbKcSTJbFv802RU32YK5YjO0MUtxEjvAI
Ridership up but below expectations.
charlie hebdoRidership up but below expectations.
Using their stats: $17 million on average for Oct and Nov 2023 from Orlando. To be fair though the 8 mil in ridership projections was made in 2020 prior to the pandemic and they also had a one year delay in opening the Orlando extension. Even so not enough to account for such a large miss on ridership amount.
I wonder why they are ordering more trains for the Florida Service if they are below projections? Are they intending to increase frequency more?
The projection I read somewhere for once Tampa opens was close to $800 million in revenue. Roughly they are making approx just over $100 million a year if you extend out their two month performance and keeping everything equal through 2024. Though I think ridership will increase more as we move forwards with marketing but I am not sure how much more.
They need to start on the Tampa extension to reach the proposed Sunrail connection and for Sunrail to access the Orlando Airport station. Once that is done it will generate some cross platform transfer at Orlando but probably not a lot. Possibly more ridership West of the Airport with station stops but again I am not sure how much.
I also read they abandoned their cruise ship dock extension plans for Miami.
charlie hebdo https://commercialobserver.com/2023/12/brightlines-expanded-service-brings-ridership-bump/?fbclid=IwAR0RherAseZzM2H4x7d7IJN4aSkbKcSTJbFv802RU32YK5YjO0MUtxEjvAI Ridership up but below expectations.
With the ridership about a third of what was projected, I wonder how Brightline calls their Florida service "proof of concept" for the projected LA-Las Vegas service, as stated in the article. I think the Feds should wait at least a year before giving them $3 billion for the Vegas gamble.
MidlandMikeWith the ridership about a third of what was projected, I wonder how Brightline calls their Florida service "proof of concept" for the projected LA-Las Vegas service, as stated in the article. I think the Feds should wait at least a year before giving them $3 billion for the Vegas gamble.
Disagree.
Wes Edens is not doing this as a hobby and he has been saavy with his past investments. Speaking as a past business owner, every responsible business person has an exit plan if financial thresholds or metrics are not met. Even though we have irresponsible and aloof business people like those that used to run Texas Central HS project.........that chose to jump ship en masse. Even they had an exit plan (which for some reason Amtrak now thinks it can fix...ha-ha).
No signs that Brightline is in trouble and quite the contrary they are continuing to expand and buy additional trainsets. They are still privately held with no inclination to do an IPO. Nobody is jumping ship. FEC is happy with them and no complaints there. No complaints from any of the vendors. All indications the business is working. Also, Orlando just ramped up and the entire project was not to be profitable before Orlando opened and yet it became so. So would be shortsighted I think to pull the rug out from under them now.
Watching youTube rider testimonials from other rail crazed people (who else would produce a youtube video on a train ride). The trains if they are partially empty leaving Orlando, fill up at West Palm Beach headed towards Miami. That is a more mature segment of the route than Orlando to Miami. I'd say everyone needs to give Orlando a little more than 2 months before pronouncing judgement. It takes time and money to market and build business (speaking from experience again). It's rarely ever that you swing your doors open to a new business and there is a stampede in the front door.
What I find most interesting about Brightline though is it seems they believe they can make a go on rail operations independent of real estate development. Which runs contrary to some of the belief among rail fans. I attribute that whole belief paradigm to decades and decades of being told that rail passenger service can never be profitable and is not profitable anywhere else in the world. United States has always been the leader among other countries at reversing conventional wisdom. Generally the argument we should nationalize our railways again is not far behind.
When I hear something like that admonition of unprofitability, I am not one to believe we should give up and throw in the towel and never try. So my point of view will always be to give people that do try the benefit of the doubt until something changes my mind (like the equipment falling apart as was the case with another recent venture that tried to tack old cars on the end of Amtrak trains).
CMStPnPNo signs that Brightline is in trouble...
Isn't the fact that the passenger numbers are a fraction of what was projected, a sign of something?
CMStPnPI'd say everyone needs to give Orlando a little more than 2 months before pronouncing judgement.
That's why I said to give them at least a year.
CMStPnPWhat I find most interesting about Brightline though is it seems they believe they can make a go on rail operations independent of real estate development. Which runs contrary to some of the belief among rail fans. I attribute that whole belief paradigm to decades and decades of being told that rail passenger service can never be profitable and is not profitable anywhere else in the world.
That belief might be based on the fact that, since Amtrak, the dozen or so tries at US private passenger rail have all failed til now. Although it's true that Brightline is well financed (including fed backed bonds) and is one of the few to invest in new equipment, it remains to be seen if they have broken the streak. I would celebrate their success.
MidlandMikeIsn't the fact that the passenger numbers are a fraction of what was projected, a sign of something?
Missed in ridership but over achieved in profitability. I can't say one way or another the information is not available but I would not say they are a failure based on a missed forecast with two very large items that were not in the forecast, high interest rates/inflation and the pandemic. Even Amtrak has not returned to 2019 ridership levels yet. Granted its a low bar comparison but who else can you compare against in the United States?
MidlandMikeThat's why I said to give them at least a year.
Give them a year for what? Your not going to know much more then unless they release a lot more stats and financial figures.
CMStPnP MidlandMike That's why I said to give them at least a year. Give them a year for what? Your not going to know much more then unless they release a lot more stats and financial figures.
MidlandMike That's why I said to give them at least a year.
I would hope that the feds would want the financial and ridership numbers before they give them $3 billion.
MidlandMikeI would hope that the feds would want the financial and ridership numbers before they give them $3 billion.
Nah, the Feds don't care. They took Amtraks projected 124k ridership numbers as a reliable forecast for the new Chicago to Twin Cities train.
Also, they are already throwing gobs of money at California's HSR system without asking for a whole lot of a future forecast or even a revisement of their ridership forecast after all the changes California made to the original plan.
CMStPnP MidlandMike I would hope that the feds would want the financial and ridership numbers before they give them $3 billion. Nah, the Feds don't care. They took Amtraks projected 124k ridership numbers as a reliable forecast for the new Chicago to Twin Cities train. Also, they are already throwing gobs of money at California's HSR system without asking for a whole lot of a future forecast or even a revisement of their ridership forecast after all the changes California made to the original plan.
MidlandMike I would hope that the feds would want the financial and ridership numbers before they give them $3 billion.
While the feds certainly should vet other government agency's projects asking for funding, I think there is a higher threshold for them lending to private entities.
$192M loss for the first three quarters of 2023
https://www.bizjournals.com/southflorida/news/2024/01/02/brightline-posts-net-loss-of-192-million.html
Never too old to have a happy childhood!
BaltACD $192M loss for the first three quarters of 2023 https://www.bizjournals.com/southflorida/news/2024/01/02/brightline-posts-net-loss-of-192-million.html
Which seems like bad news...
But, it's less than previous year by a bit.
It includes almost all the operational costs for start-up of Orlando service, but almost no Orlando revenue.
My hunch is they are pretty close to operating in the black and will eventually turn enough profit to fund new equipment when needed. But, will never be able to fund the capital out of the farebox. That job belongs to Fortress RE development.
-Don (Random stuff, mostly about trains - what else? http://blerfblog.blogspot.com/)
The 20 new coaches were on order when I left and hasn't changed to the best of my knowledge. The real litmus test will be if the order expands and/or if the timeline for delivery is expedited.
Editor Emeritus, This Week at Amtrak
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