News Wire: Amtrak warns of significant service cuts as ridership drops

[Brian Schmidt]

As virus concerns reduce travel, memo to employees seeks volunteers for unpaid time off

https://trn.trains.com/news/news-wire/2020/03/12-amtrak-warns-of-significant-service-cuts-as-ridership-drops

[PJS1]

Brian Schmidt

 As virus concerns reduce travel, memo to employees seeks volunteers for unpaid time off

https://trn.trains.com/news/news-wire/2020/03/12-amtrak-warns-of-significant-service-cuts-as-ridership-drops 

Ah, Gardner has just engaged your expertise to advise him on what services, if any, Amtrak should cut.  And how to make up the estimated lost revenues.

He is willing to pay big bucks for your advice.  What would you tell him?

[BaltACD]

The World will stop in 3 .... 2 .... 1.....?

[PJS1]

The Pennsylvanian - Trains 42 and 43 - will not operate between Pittsburgh and New York March 19th through March 29th.  Actually, the announcement says 29; I presume it is March 29th.

[PJS1]

Now – March 20^th - the announcement says The Pennsylvanian is cancelled.  It does not give an anticipated resumption of service date. 

 

Amtrak also says the Keystone Service between Harrisburg and New York is cancelled.  Whether the Keystone service between Harrisburg and Philadelphia will continue to operate is not clear. 

[zugmann]

PJS1

Whether the Keystone service between Harrisburg and Philadelphia will continue to operate is not clear. 

It's not operating. 

[divebardave]

This is what they want

[PJS1]

zugmann

 PJS1 Whether the Keystone service between Harrisburg and Philadelphia will continue to operate is not clear.  

It's not operating. 

Since the services are funded heavily by PA, I presume it was the governor that pulled the plug.  Agree?

[zugmann]

PJS1

Since the services are funded heavily by PA, I presume it was the governor that pulled the plug.  Agree?

No.  The Governor hasn't shut down rail transportation. https://www.scribd.com/document/452553026/UPDATED-5-45pm-March-21-2020-Industry-Operation-Guidance

Now whether he urged them to, I can't say.  But officially - it's laid out in that spreadsheet. 

[MidlandMike]

zugmann

 

 

PJS1

Since the services are funded heavily by PA, I presume it was the governor that pulled the plug.  Agree?

 

 

No.  The Governor hasn't shut down rail transportation. https://www.scribd.com/document/452553026/UPDATED-5-45pm-March-21-2020-Industry-Operation-Guidance

Now whether he urged them to, I can't say.  But officially - it's laid out in that spreadsheet. 

 

 

I noticed they shut down the computer and electronics manufacturing.  Also Lawyers, unless the court schedules it.

[zugmann]

MidlandMike

I noticed they shut down the computer and electronics manufacturing.  Also Lawyers, unless the court schedules it.

Lot of businesses are seeking injunctions to try to stay open, or outright defying the orders. 

I've heard PA pulled Gamestop's operating licenses in the state (they're trying to stay open under the guise of "essential" ), but I haven't seen anything official. So, a rumor as of now. 

 

[blue streak 1]

All Acela service has been cancelled.  Could it be because just using regionals the number of cars needed on any regional can be determined some time before the train scheduled to depart the origination station ?

10 or 11 round trips NYP <> WAS and 5 NYP <> BOS.

[PJS1]

As per USA Today, “Amtrak spokesman Marc Magliari said daily ridership is down 90%, and future bookings are down 85%.”

 

I saw the southbound Texas Eagle today in central Texas at approximately 5pm.  Only one person was in the upper level of the lounge car.  On a Sunday it is not unusual to see 10 to 15 people in the lounge car.

 

Given the numbers stated by Magliari, it is hard to see how Amtrak cannot make significant cuts in the long -distance trains.

[MikeF90]

A bit of a puff piece, but Railway Age has published an interview with the outgoing president Anderson: https://www.railwayage.com/passenger/intercity/a-sully-moment-for-amtraks-anderson/  

EDIT: the author is Frank Wilner - a better shill cannot be found. "Wilner is a past president of the Association of Transportation Law Professionals. He drafted the railroad section of the Heritage Foundation’s Mandate for Leadership (Volumes I and II), which were policy blueprints for the two Reagan Administrations; and was a guest columnist for the Cato Institute’s Regulation magazine."

I hope that Amtrak keeps a skeleton long distance service in place, IMO it should be safer than flying.  Thinking of my SIL who is trapped in WA visiting her sick sister in a nursing home or hospital - Yikes.

[PJS1]

Most of Texas'cities served by the Texas Eagle have been locked down.  Only essential travel is permitted. 

It is possible that Number 22 departed San Antonio this morning with no or very few passengers.  

[blue streak 1]

This poster has hoped that Amtrak could remain operating.  However with the situation in NY City going from bad to worse that may be impossible.  We may expect for a complete breakdown in transportation witin 7 - 10 days ?  The only persons able to operate aare going to be those who contacted covid-19 and have recovered.  I really hope that is not what is going to happen but the spread is getting along fast.

Now it is not just the USA.  China appears to be concealing the true outbreak  in Wuhan as reports of number of urns to relatives does not compute with reported numbers ?   

[PJS1]

According to a CNN article dated March 27^th, Mike Boyd, a respected airline consultant, believes that the airlines that come out of the COVID-19 crisis will be fewer, smaller, and fly less.  Accoding to Boyd, the majority of pullbacks are likely to occur in international and short haul markets, with some markets being abandoned completely. 

 

An opportunity for passenger rail to fill the void? 

[Overmod]

PJS1

An opportunity for passenger rail to fill the void? 

Add another $2 trillion to the stimulus, and we could make a kind of defective start.

[GERALD L MCFARLANE JR]

Overmod

 PJS1

An opportunity for passenger rail to fill the void? 

 

 

Add another $2 trillion to the stimulus, and we could make a kind of defective start.

 

 

There should be an entirely separate $1 Trillion dollar stimulus packaged directed at infrastructure as construction is the fastest way to get an economy back on track(so to speak), of course if you could make that $2 trillion even better, but we know that won't happen.

[PJS1]

"Add another $2 trillion to the stimulus, and we could make a kind of defective start."

 

Maybe not!  

 

The nation sobers up as a result of the COVID-19 public health crisis.  Hard to believe but possible. It stops insisting on outdated solutions to passenger transportation problems.  The long-distance trains are terminated.  And the equipment is made available for new or improved corridor operations.

 

One of the densest corridors in the U.S. is DFW to San Antonio.   Flying from DFW to San Antonio makes some sense.  But for anyone headed to one of the intermediate communities, i.e. Austin, Temple, Waco, or San Marcos from either end point or in between, flying does not make any sense.  The distances are too short.  Voila!  Better rail service.    

 

Move enough of the Texas Eagle locomotives, coaches, and lounge cars to Fort Worth to run three daily trains each way from Fort Worth to San Antonio, i.e. morning, noon, evening departures from both end points.  Convert one car for each train to a business class car. Two maybe three coaches, a lounge car, a business class car, and the locomotive would probably do the trick initially.  Scrap the dining cars and sleepers.

 

In time switch the route from the BNSF to the UP’s former MKT line, which runs through Waco, to Temple.  The line would have to be upgraded, as would the stations and parking lots. 

 

How much would it cost?  I don’t know.  But probably not $2 trillion.  I suspect the compounded savings from discontinuing the long-distance trains – maybe $450 million a year, could cover a good chunk of the cost.  And over time it could help fund other corridors, i.e. Tucson to Phoenix, Charlotte to Atlanta, etc.

[alphas]

Looking at a map that seems doable.  But I would not expect the freight RR's to go along with this (conidering they are running directional service over the 2 routes) without very major additional payments to them.   Of course, you can build a second track on one of the routes but that's $100's of millions and you know the freight RR's aren't going to do that unless something would dratically change.  

 

[Overmod]

PJS1

But for anyone headed to one of the intermediate communities, i.e. Austin, Temple, Waco, or San Marcos from either end point or in between, flying does not make any sense.  The distances are too short.

There is a one-word answer:Zunum. Plenty of other competitors in that space.  Combined with some combination of regional feeders, 'paratransit' and Uber/Lyft service there is no call whatsoever to build out some network of local rail that can't run 24-hour service everywhere on a meaningful schedule.  That idea died with the interurbans, and its 'excuse' with local passenger trains went out when the mail contracts were dropped and alternatives to REA for convenient last-mile delivery came in.

There is of course room for many corridor services, and they will tie into the same 'feeder' infrastructure.  But even with modern versions of RDC (or iLINT) these will involve tens of millions per mile plus operating deficits to be made up from... where? in budgets now tasked with billions for simple individual economic recovery?  These are not construction projects that give much 'stimulus' to most people.

[blue streak 1]

Cal Z departing Reno and Denver tomorrow cancelled  RNO <> DEN.  

https://www.amtrak.com/alert/service-adjustments-due-to-coronavirus.html 

[MidlandMike]

Overmod

There is a one-word answer:Zunum.

From those wonderful folks who brought you the 737 Max.  Battery powered airplane, what could go wrong?  Plus why use a skinny rail line when you could cover the landscape with lots more airports.

[Overmod]

MidlandMike

From those wonderful folks who brought you the 737 Max.

Nothing wrong with the Max that a few software updates and better training couldn't fix.  I leave out any discussion of whether abandoning inherent stability in an airliner for the general public was a reasonable design decision in the first place.

And the Edsel wasn't a bad car, either, and many people who ran PRR T1s liked them, etc.  People just love it when something gets a bad name, like GM with those keys that turned themselves off and locked the Federally-mandated steering locks, or the Audis with the permanently-unidentifiable acceleration issues.  Truth then easily suffers from too much analysis.  

Battery powered airplane, what could go wrong?

That's the Israeli airplane... the one that doesn't have a pilot, either... even a remote-access one.

Zunum uses a full parallel hybrid - it has a full 'sustainer' capability in fueled turbine power and only has to 'rely' on the battery assistance for higher rate of climb in takeoff.

There is of course the risk of structural fire after airframe damage, which gets worse as battery energy density increases.  Pumped-electrolyte cells have somewhat increased risk of 'no optimal caloric expression' for somewhat predictable reasons.  Personally I would have little concern flying on one regionally if sensible maintenance practices (much like those for turbine power plants) are followed and enforced.