Corona virus effects on China rail service and other services

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Corona virus effects on China rail service and other services
Posted by blue streak 1 on Thursday, January 23, 2020 11:27 PM

Has Trains or anyone received any word on how China  RRs are operating around the Huwan ( Wuhan  sp? )isolation zone?  Understand severl larg ciities are isolated arond Huwan ?  Have a daughter that is director for a Univerity's foreign exchange program.  She said that luckly most US students came home due to the Chinese new Year's celebrations shutting down schooling.

http://hoholok.com/public-transport-is-at-the-second-chinese-city-to-shut-down-due-to-feline-corona-virus/ 

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Posted by charlie hebdo on Friday, January 24, 2020 9:51 AM

The case in Houston was a student at Wuhan returning for the long holiday. 

No outbound passengers from Wuhan or the affected cities in Hubei province.  Perhaps trains just pass through without stopping? 

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Posted by Overmod on Friday, January 24, 2020 1:21 PM

Interestingly enough this situation appears to be due to a coronavirus for which there is effective 'treatment' via GC376 or GC373.  Why it would result in 'dangerous' human crossover is not entirely clear to me, nor why it would be difficult to sequence the mutated virus and determine the characteristics of its 3CLpro relatively quickly for treatment.

I am presuming that the course of the 'infection' is less with the coronavirus itself than with the futile immune-system response to it, as with FIP and, less directly, the most fulminant responses to the 'Spanish flu' clones in the influenza outbreaks of 1918ff.  

 

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Posted by charlie hebdo on Friday, January 24, 2020 3:00 PM

The CDC, which would know far better than you or I,  indicated a three-month time to develop effective treatment. They have started.  A confirmed case from Wuhan now in Chicago. She flew here Jan. 13.

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Posted by Overmod on Friday, January 24, 2020 3:43 PM

charlie hebdo
The CDC, which would know far better than you or I,  indicated a three-month time to develop effective treatment.

It will be highly interesting to see what they come up with, vs. what has already been established to work.  But forgive me if my first response to that is this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yoy4_h7Pb3M

My prediction of what they find:

The condition is not the viral infection per se., but certain aspects of the body's immune response to its presence.  (As in FIP, the syndrome that occurs upon rare but characteristic mutation of feline coronavirus).

The condition will be treated (primarily and initially) not with novel immunomodulation (at least not effectively; for relief of symptoms) but with direct reduction of virus titer.  The proven method used for this at present is inactivators of 3C-like proteases, specifically (for feline coronavirus) GC373 and its bisulfite adduct GC376.  This cures the 'infection' (and hence the mispriming of the immune responses) within no more than a few days at a probable dose of about 100mg/kg.

In cats this is done either by injection or PO, with the dose regimen being continued about 12 weeks; this is similar to the Salk method of polio treatment where the immune system is given isolation from the 'priming' regions on the infectious clones for a long enough time to clear antibodies etc. from circulation.  During most of that time there will be little overt symptoms, but if the virus titer is allowed to re-establish even slightly you may get almost anaphylactic-shock levels of activation in a comparatively brief time.

If anyone wants documentation on the active regions for 3CLpro inhibition, or the structure of the research compounds, they may PM me in the meantime.

In my opinion 'three months' is a ridiculous timeframe, likely driven much more by expedient 'safety' considerations of drug development than by fundamental analysis and correct molecular design ... but we'll find that out too, in time.

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Posted by charlie hebdo on Friday, January 24, 2020 5:44 PM

Duplicate

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Posted by charlie hebdo on Friday, January 24, 2020 5:51 PM

Maybe you will  be correct,  but the CDC has lot of microbologists and experienced  immunologists on staff as well as topnotch outside consultants and almost unlimited resources. I would defer to their expertise on the  2019nCoV than YouTube or our resident polymath. 

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Posted by blue streak 1 on Tuesday, January 28, 2020 12:31 PM

Here is a link to an article of China RR cancellations.  Wuhan is effectly isolated.

Hong Kong shutting rail crossings to mainland China.

https://www.railjournal.com/passenger/high-speed/coronavirus-china-railway-cuts-services/ 

 

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Posted by charlie hebdo on Friday, January 31, 2020 8:41 AM

As to your notion that "'three months is a ridiculous timeframe'" I would remind all to read about the swine flu inoculation disaster that led to deaths from Guillan Barre Syndrome. Rushing is unwise. 

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Posted by Flintlock76 on Friday, January 31, 2020 10:47 AM

charlie hebdo

As to your notion that "'three months is a ridiculous timeframe'" I would remind all to read about the swine flu inoculation disaster that led to deaths from Guillan Barre Syndrome. Rushing is unwise. 

 

I remember the swine flu panic quite well.  Never  underestimate the power of hysteria, where anything  is concerned.

A personal note.  I was in the Marines at the time and everyone  had to get a swine flu shot.  When the day came the Navy hospital corpsmen set up, and the line formed and went out the door.

Now as a matter of form Marine officers are not supposed to cut to the head of a chow line, or supply line, or any kind of line, the troops are supposed to be taken care of first.  However in this case since there was a bit of grumbling I decided to set the example and cut in at the head of the line.  Several other officers did as well.  Nobody  complained!  

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Posted by charlie hebdo on Friday, January 31, 2020 10:51 AM

An example of bad, selfish behavior. I'm surprised you got away with that without some unpleasant consequences. 

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Posted by Overmod on Friday, January 31, 2020 10:51 AM

My comment about 'ridiculous timeframe' concerned basic research, not "developing an effective vaccine" (or other treatment, likely immunological modulation, which would likely be of much more value in many cases of this kind than a 'vaccine' against the virus itself).  As a case in point, the 3CLpro inhibitors I mentioned are in full production in China, and it would take far, far less than "three months" to establish their value, and determine specific molecular modifications to them for greater effectiveness against the particular infectious clone(s) of coronavirus (which, creditably, appear to have been sequenced within a few days of the initially-observed issues).

I am well mindful of the previous experience with the cytobiology of AIDS, as this was the test case I ran (in early 1987) against the old version of the NLM database when setting up for the bibliography of my father's festschrift on retinoblastoma.  Much of the 'research' involved the various arguments about who had discovered the initial virus, whether you could get it from toilet seats, etc.  Actually figuring out why the virus was so deadly (primarily the shifting antigens in the virus coat) took much longer ... once the low-hanging fruit from easy grant money was somewhat exhausted, I think.  

What I'm expecting to see (hoping otherwise) is that much of the research is going to concentrate on the extraordinary transmissibility reported for at least the 'lethal' strain(s).  This is important research, and I expect it to lead to vastly increased knowledge, but it is highly unlikely to result in any kind of treatment for the lethality, at least in the time of concern for its uncontrolled propagation into new populations in the presence of Chinese-level quarantine provisions.  I am willing to be surprised, of course, and frankly I hope I will be.

I would be happier, of course, if people commenting on medical matters would learn to spell their syndromes correctly -- it smacks of sloppy research.  That does not mean that I don't thoroughly share your feeling about general vaccine development, especially under 'emergency' conditions, or the likely spate of problems, often involving incapacitation or death, that follow when sloppy or misguided work is done.  I personally think that the issues around Gulf War syndrome are an even better argument (if less directly relevant to sky-is-falling responses to viral infections) than the 'swine flu' business.

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Posted by Flintlock76 on Friday, January 31, 2020 10:55 AM

charlie hebdo

An example of bad, selfish behavior. I'm surprised you got away with that without some unpleasant consequences. 

 

Wink

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Posted by Overmod on Friday, January 31, 2020 11:00 AM

Flintlock76
 
charlie hebdo

An example of bad, selfish behavior. I'm surprised you got away with that without some unpleasant consequences. 

Wink

At the risk of being obvious -- both charlie hebdo and Flintlock understand the sarcasm.  I hope everyone else does, too...

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Posted by charlie hebdo on Friday, January 31, 2020 12:30 PM

One can only hope!   But not always obvious on social media. 

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Posted by charlie hebdo on Friday, January 31, 2020 12:32 PM

At this point it looks like the virus is transmitted easily, but fortunately not very lethal......yet. 

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Posted by Overmod on Friday, January 31, 2020 12:55 PM

charlie hebdo
At this point it looks like the virus is transmitted easily, but fortunately not very lethal......yet. 

I wish I were not as certain about that.  It appeared to me (admittedly from little better than press reports and some very early papers) that the lethality compared to the number of identified cases was anomalously high, which was one of the stated concerns over the apparent transmissibility.

I confess to having lived in fear of a 'return' of this sort of infection, combining high tendency toward morbidity with great ease of transmission (almost regardless of the incubation time).  I think we have grown a little complacent with the Chicken-Little aspects of things like the swine-flu kerfuffle and, later, the vaunted SARS threat.  

I will admit, though, that mutated feline coronavirus is NOT the sort of thing I'd expect as 'the next Mayan'.  I only happen to be 'up on it' due to having been one of the early people developing a curative regimen for FIP, including the by-now fairly well-developed research into treatment of cats with developed symptoms; I certainly can't plead tremendous encyclopedic knowledge on CDC-available levels or experience... just on how to shorten the path to practical management of this particular kind of infection from this particular class of agent.

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Posted by charlie hebdo on Friday, January 31, 2020 1:40 PM

As of this morning,  the confirmed cases are just under 10,000 which is more than the SARS  total.  But deaths are *only* 213, compared to SARS 774.

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Posted by Overmod on Friday, January 31, 2020 2:47 PM

That tells me two things, first that they're commendably on top of giving effective treatment very early, and second, that they appear to have learned a great deal about doing so since the days of SARS.

It is also possible that the mutation that made the virus initially so lethal was a transient one, as was observed a number of times with the 'Spanish flu' in 1918 and after, but that isn't something I'd have relied on occurring... it should make someone an interesting paper to periodically sequence the virus from 'new' active cases, or any new evidence of increased virulence, to see.

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Posted by blue streak 1 on Friday, January 31, 2020 4:44 PM

So we are hoping that this virus does not mutate again ?  Have not read any where what China RRs are doing.

 fare refunds

https://www.railwaygazette.com/uk/rail-ticket-refunds-offered-to-chinese-customers-unable-to-travel-because-of-the-coronavirus/55683.article 

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Posted by Overmod on Friday, January 31, 2020 6:19 PM

blue streak 1
So we are hoping that this virus does not mutate again?

In my opinion, most definitely.

The 'current' understanding of the Spanish influenza is that at least three separate jumps into virulence were caused by continuing mutation of some aspect of the strain involved.  I don't know if 'permissible' research on the particular clone(s) of that virus that have been recovered will show the peculiar lethality or expose its particular causes after sequencing and folding analysis.  

There is an interesting characteristic to FIP infections in cats.  Virtually all cats are exposed to feline coronavirus from an early age, and some of them exhibit transient symptoms of infection which form immunity and are overcome early in life.  In about a third of a percent of cats, though, a clone of the virus develops which produces chronic infection of a couple of types, classically 'always' resulting in death over a course of weeks to months.  The interesting thing is this: once the infection proceeds to the 'peritonitis' stage, the cat is essentially no longer an infectious danger to other cats in the same household, even though the unmutated virus is highly transmissible.  Few people seem to have remarked on this as late as early fall (when I stopped following the research literature temporarily), but it appears we might be looking at a similar mechanism with the most recent stats that charlie hebdo has provided.  This of course would be highly preferable to any virus that has both high transmissibility (as the Chinese coronavirus has demonstrated so far) and also induces an exaggerated but essentially futile immune response (as is the cause of death in FIP).

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Posted by Deggesty on Friday, January 31, 2020 7:41 PM

Back in the fall of 1957, there was great concern of what was feared to be a flu epidemic. Not much vaccine was initially available, and my college decided to make certain that faculty and instructors were protected. I was given a shot on Thursday; I did not feel really well on Friday; I went to bed after lunch Saturday (and disgusted the student who had to see to me)--and was able to be back out Sunday afternoon.

Johnny

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Posted by Erik_Mag on Saturday, February 1, 2020 12:03 AM

charlie hebdo

As of this morning,  the confirmed cases are just under 10,000 which is more than the SARS  total.  But deaths are *only* 213, compared to SARS 774.

 

From what I understand, a significant number of deaths from viral infections (flu, SARS, 2019 Corona) are due to secondary infections such as bacterial pneumonia. It's quite possible that China has improved response to treating secondary infections as compared to the SARS epidemic.

As an aside, Oswald Avery of the NYC public health department spent a couple of decades researching the acteria associated with pneumonia. There were two prominent strains, one relatively benign and the other virulent. What was more puzzling was that interactions between the benign and virulent strains could lead to the benign strains becoming virulent and after over two decades of research he determined that the genetic transfer was done by transfer of DNA, which at the time was not considered to have anything to do with genetics.

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Posted by blue streak 1 on Sunday, February 2, 2020 9:57 AM

A problem  about this virus will probably rear its head here in the US in about 6 weeks.  that is when the supply chain of goods from China may dry up .  The ships with goods will not be coming.  So the RRs especially UP and BNSF will see a drop in intermodal continers coming over.  Now how much will be taken up by other countries and other areas of China will leave to those who understand the supply chain much better ?

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Posted by blue streak 1 on Tuesday, February 4, 2020 1:05 AM

Russian service to all China except Beijing cut and that now cut.

https://www.railjournal.com/passenger/main-line/passenger-services-from-china-to-russia-and-mongolia-cut/ 

EDIT:  Check out the % reductions for traffic in the article !

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Posted by blue streak 1 on Wednesday, February 5, 2020 9:42 PM
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Posted by blue streak 1 on Tuesday, February 25, 2020 5:00 AM
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Posted by blue streak 1 on Monday, March 9, 2020 7:43 AM

Here is a mathematical explanation and graph of how we can expect the virus to spread.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kas0tIxDvrg#action=share

 

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