Amtrak Illinois Service only 6% on time performance

[BLS53]

https://www.chicagotribune.com/business/transportation/ct-biz-amtrak-illinois-trains-late-report-20191017-6p2x6yzpa5fb3pr4bkldzbvpmi-story.html

What is unique to CN's operation, that appears to make Amtrak delays more likely, than with other freight railroads?

[BaltACD]

CN actively works against Amtrak from everything I have heard.  CN considers it mistake when Amtrak happens to be On Time.

[charlie hebdo]

At least in Illinois,  CN is single track so freight delays are common. 

[Overmod]

charlie hebdo

At least in Illinois,  CN is single track so freight delays are common.

The story is missing some pretty critical information.

(1) Is the City of New Orleans, which runs this route, also subject to the 6%-on-time number?  (There are follow-on statistical questions)

(2) What percentage of delay is attributable to 'slow orders' vs. actual freight-dispatching delays?

(3) What, if any, percentage of delay (or absolute cause of delay) is attributable to METRA or other passenger-agency cause rather than freight?

(4) How many of the slow orders are permanently 'structural' vs. associated with track improvement for higher speed or to improve infrastructure?  What's the magnitude of the latter, and when will the overall delay start to diminish (or net running speed or 'padding' time increase/scheduled running time decrease)?

[JPS1]

According to Amtrak’s August 2019 Monthly Performance Report, which is the latest public report, on a YTD basis the Illini’s average On Time Performance (OTP) at its end points was 65.6 percent.  This compares to an average YTD OTP for the state supported trains of 74.6 percent.

 

The average OTP at its end points for the City of New Orleans YTD August 2019 was 41.6 percent, which is just a tad above the average OTP of 41.4 percent for the long-distance trains.

 

For some reason the Saluki’s numbers are not shown in the monthly performance reports.  It is, however, shown in the on-line schedule.

 

In August 2019 the City of New Orleans experienced 1,117 minutes of delay per 10,000 train miles on the CN.  Freight train interference accounted for 39 percent of the delay minutes; slow orders accounted for 24 percent of the delays. 

 

The Illini/Saluki – it shows up this way in the host railroad report – had 1,517 minutes of delay per 10,000 trains miles in August 2019.  Signal issues accounted for 48 percent of the delays; slow orders accounted for 16 percent of the delay minutes.

 

One month of data could be an outlier.  I look at a minimum of 12 months of data to detect trends. 

[CMStPnP]

BaltACD

CN actively works against Amtrak from everything I have heard.  CN considers it mistake when Amtrak happens to be On Time.

Congress is asking questions about how safe the line can be if they are having so many issues with the signaling.    Amtrak got the case docket narrowed from all CN lines to just the Saluki /illini trains.   Which I believe was a legal manuever to speed the case up.   Amtrak was also recently advised to seek mediation.    Though if I were Amtrak I would continue to persue the case, they will get a far better outcome and it's been a lawsuit for going on 7 years now.    They should push it to the Supreme Court if necessary, in my view.

CN's case would be a lot stronger had ICG had similar issues running Amtrak trains but it's pretty clear the issues started to happen after the CN merger.   Even if CN attempts to make the legal argument it has to do with limited infrastructure, it made so such approach or request to Amtrak to help allieviate the issue prior to the lawsuit.   So CN has a fairly weak hand.   Though Amtrak's legal department is not the most competent either.   So coin toss on how it will end up.

[CSSHEGEWISCH]

Overmod

 

charlie hebdo

At least in Illinois,  CN is single track so freight delays are common.

 

 

The story is missing some pretty critical information.

(3) What, if any, percentage of delay (or absolute cause of delay) is attributable to METRA or other passenger-agency cause rather than freight?

Delays attributable to Metra would be virtually non-existent as the former IC lines have a separate right-of-way.  There may be an occasional delay at Kensington where the South Shore crosses to pick up the suburban line.

[charlie hebdo]

3. Metra Electric Service has had separate tracks and platforms for 100 years or so. 

[Overmod]

charlie hebdo

Metra Electric Service has had separate tracks and platforms for 100 years or so. 

I stand, delightedly, corrected.

[SPSOT fan]

BaltACD

CN actively works against Amtrak from everything I have heard.  CN considers it mistake when Amtrak happens to be On Time.

Is that not illegal! I though freight railroads where legally obligated to keep passenger trains on time!

Real sad that, If this article is correct, Amtrak could be at or closer at least to profitability if it had a good ontime performance record.

[charlie hebdo]

JPS1

According to Amtrak’s August 2019 Monthly Performance Report, which is the latest public report, on a YTD basis the Illini’s average On Time Performance (OTP) at its end points was 65.6 percent.  This compares to an average YTD OTP for the state supported trains of 74.6 percent.

 

The average OTP at its end points for the City of New Orleans YTD August 2019 was 41.6 percent, which is just a tad above the average OTP of 41.4 percent for the long-distance trains.

 

For some reason the Saluki’s numbers are not shown in the monthly performance reports.  It is, however, shown in the on-line schedule.

 

In August 2019 the City of New Orleans experienced 1,117 minutes of delay per 10,000 train miles on the CN.  Freight train interference accounted for 39 percent of the delay minutes; slow orders accounted for 24 percent of the delays. 

 

The Illini/Saluki – it shows up this way in the host railroad report – had 1,517 minutes of delay per 10,000 trains miles in August 2019.  Signal issues accounted for 48 percent of the delays; slow orders accounted for 16 percent of the delay minutes.

 

One month of data could be an outlier.  I look at a minimum of 12 months of data to detect trends. 

 

Given the fact that the CNO runs considerable mileage outside the Chicago to Carbondale corridor,  the stats aren't a valid comparison. 

At one time the IC was a double-trracked speedway in Illinois,  running T 90mph, sometimes over 100mph, as I saw once in the diner of the City of Miami. 

[Overmod]

charlie hebdo

Given the fact that the CNO runs considerable mileage outside the Chicago to Carbondale corridor,  the stats aren't a valid comparison. 

That was one of the 'follow-on statistical questions': whether any aggregated delay before reaching Carbondale were somehow being added to the delay stats for the remaining mileage.

It would, naturally, follow any indication that the CNO were being included in the state-sponsored stats in the first place, something that I think JP1 has addressed (but not in the instant monthly case that seems to have started this thread).

My admittedly unconsidered 'take' on this is that it's an artifact of a particularly bad month -- we might actually be able to analyze what went so bad, and of course compare it with 'following' months to see if it stays bad -- and I agree that a rolling 12-month average, or a lower period taken from historical year-over-year data (which would include some peak or low traffic periods) would be much more appropriate to base a discussion of these trains' timekeeping on.