So if American population growth is flat and even declining in Amtraks service area....

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So if American population growth is flat and even declining in Amtraks service area....
Posted by CandOforprogress2 on Monday, December 11, 2017 8:42 PM

We could expect slower growth in Amtrak ridership outside of the Northest Corridor

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Posted by A McIntosh on Tuesday, December 12, 2017 9:11 AM

It would be interesting to see what effects changing demographics on train ridership in Japan and in europe, both facing aging and declining populations, are being wrought.

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Posted by ROBERT WILLISON on Tuesday, December 12, 2017 10:04 AM

Might thier not be  a possible growth  in Amtrak ridership despite aging and declining poulations?  Currently Amtrak hauls about  2  percent of the nation's inter city traffic. So just a bigger piece of the pie can results in growth.

Today younger folks are moving back to the Central cities, depending far less on automobiles  and some forgoing cars all together. It has already created more interest in buses. Ride share in the us was unheard of 10 years ago.  It continues to grow as well.

I wouldn't count Amtrak out on demographics.

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Posted by CandOforprogress2 on Tuesday, December 12, 2017 10:45 AM

White Middle prostesnt and non imigrant class are in decline. Many of the cities in the rust belt have lost half to 2/3rds of there population. I see the demograhics at the local Wal-marts everyday. The Local Home Depot in Cheektavagas has gone from pluggers with flanel shirts to middle eastern men with headcovering in Buffalo.

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Posted by runnerdude48 on Tuesday, December 12, 2017 2:48 PM

Mr. Willison is right to a degree.  Don't count Amtrak out on demographics.  We are just at the tip of the baby boomer retirement tsunami.  As people age they will be less likely to drive and fly when they can take the train.  They will have the money and the time to take the train.

 

I think the movement of younger people to the cities is about at an end.  They had their good times walking to the restaurants and bars but now they want a house in a safe neighborhood with a large yard for the kids and pets and don't forget safe, good schools.  Cities only provide that at a high cost.  I know several millenials who have given up the city life for the suburbs.  Now they drive to the coffee shop on Sunday mornings. These people will not have the money and time to spend on taking the train after their one adventure.  They will continue to drive where they can and fly for any distance.  But, retired baby boomers may take their place.

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Posted by charlie hebdo on Wednesday, December 13, 2017 6:36 PM

runnerdude48

Mr. Willison is right to a degree.  Don't count Amtrak out on demographics.  We are just at the tip of the baby boomer retirement tsunami.  As people age they will be less likely to drive and fly when they can take the train.  They will have the money and the time to take the train.

 

I think the movement of younger people to the cities is about at an end.  They had their good times walking to the restaurants and bars but now they want a house in a safe neighborhood with a large yard for the kids and pets and don't forget safe, good schools.  Cities only provide that at a high cost.  I know several millenials who have given up the city life for the suburbs.  Now they drive to the coffee shop on Sunday mornings. These people will not have the money and time to spend on taking the train after their one adventure.  They will continue to drive where they can and fly for any distance.  But, retired baby boomers may take their place.

 

Yes.  Many retired folks and empty nesters are heading for the city,

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Posted by CandOforprogress2 on Thursday, December 14, 2017 8:56 AM

Local bus service and senior dial and ride services are expanding here in my county in antispation, But considering the indepedent mindset of the Baby Boomers I expect the we will have to pry the auto steering wheel from their cold dead hands.

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Posted by zugmann on Thursday, December 14, 2017 10:33 AM

CandOforprogress2
But considering the indepedent mindset of the Baby Boomers I expect the we will have to pry the auto steering wheel from their cold dead hands.

Hence the rush on marketing driverless cars.  Allows independence.

The opinions expressed here represent my own and not those of my employer or any other railroad, company, or person.

But perhaps victory is in the simpler things that you've long forgotten; things that require a smaller, more honest soul.

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Posted by ROBERT WILLISON on Thursday, December 14, 2017 12:06 PM

runnerdude48

Mr. Willison is right to a degree.  Don't count Amtrak out on demographics.  We are just at the tip of the baby boomer retirement tsunami.  As people age they will be less likely to drive and fly when they can take the train.  They will have the money and the time to take the train.

 

I think the movement of younger people to the cities is about at an end.  They had their good times walking to the restaurants and bars but now they want a house in a safe neighborhood with a large yard for the kids and pets and don't forget safe, good schools.  Cities only provide that at a high cost.  I know several millenials who have given up the city life for the suburbs.  Now they drive to the coffee shop on Sunday mornings. These people will not have the money and time to spend on taking the train after their one adventure.  They will continue to drive where they can and fly for any distance.  But, retired baby boomers may take their place.

 

I agree that at some point younger affluent  folks tend to move to suburban area's. How ever the segment I was referencing all the folks in lower paying jobs that find  automobile ownership and thier related cost are out of thier budgets. Even  folks leaving colleges are often saddled with large college loans.

It amazes me how many of my kids friends do not have driver's licenses or the intention to obtain one. Thier intentions are to Uber or use lift or some form of public transportation.

When I was thier age, not driving was out of the question.

Things they keep on changing.

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Posted by zugmann on Thursday, December 14, 2017 7:02 PM

How old are the kids?  Intentions and realities usually conflict. 

The opinions expressed here represent my own and not those of my employer or any other railroad, company, or person.

But perhaps victory is in the simpler things that you've long forgotten; things that require a smaller, more honest soul.

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Posted by blue streak 1 on Thursday, December 14, 2017 8:14 PM

Overall population may be stagnant.   But we need to look at population in age groups of say 5 year intervals.  Is the groups that most often travel by rail increasing ??  Have no idea.

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Posted by JPS1 on Friday, December 15, 2017 9:06 AM

CandOforprogress2

We could expect slower growth in Amtrak ridership outside of the Northest Corridor. 

From 2000 to 2017 the population of the United States increased by approximately 45 million or roughly an average of one percent per year.  This trend is expected to continue.  If the country continues to grow at one percent a year, which does not sound like much, it will add approximately 3.26 million people every year.
 
Most of the growth has taken place in urban areas or along corridors between major urban areas.  Of the major demographic areas of the country, i.e. northeast, south, etc., the NEC has been among the slowest growing regions.  The fastest growth has been in the south, southwest, and west.  Growth in the nation’s rural areas has been tepid, with some rural areas losing population.
 
Amtrak’s future is in the short, high density corridors.  From 2012 to 2016 Amtrak’s ridership was almost flat.  Ridership in the NEC increased 4.3 percent, but ridership in the other corridors declined 2.5 percent, and ridership on the long distance trains decreased 1.7 percent. 
 
Outside of the NEC a few of the more heavily traveled corridors saw an increase in ridership, but many of them saw a significant decrease.  Some significant increases were Pacific Surfliner’s 10.8 percent, Keystone Service 3 percent, and Empire Service 8.5 percent.  But most of the other corridors saw a decrease in ridership, which resulted in an overall decrease for the category.
 
Numerous factors can impact ridership.  One of them is the cost of gasoline, which has declined in nominal dollars since 2012.  The average price in 2012 was $2.60 per gallon; by 2016 it had fallen to $2.46 per gallon.  It has increased to $2.49 in 2017, and it is expected to continue increasing in 2018, which means more people may opt to take the train.  For the most part they will be people living in high density corridors.  
 

Rio Grande Valley, CFI,CFII

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Posted by ROBERT WILLISON on Friday, December 15, 2017 3:10 PM

zugmann

How old are the kids?  Intentions and realities usually conflict. 

 

. My kids. 19 - 24....I see they them taking the rapid ( gcrta) opting for Uber....thier not in the finical position to be buying a house or jumping on planes...just beginning Thur life's.... Just what I'm seeing in my world.

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Posted by Philly Amtrak Fan on Tuesday, January 16, 2018 4:58 PM

Amtrak's route map is still roughly the same as it was back when Amtrak started even though demographics has changed drastically since 1981. If Amtrak wanted to take advantage of that, they would try to expand service in the South and West.

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Posted by ATLANTIC CENTRAL on Tuesday, January 16, 2018 5:22 PM

CandOforprogress2

Local bus service and senior dial and ride services are expanding here in my county in antispation, But considering the indepedent mindset of the Baby Boomers I expect the we will have to pry the auto steering wheel from their cold dead hands.

 

Yes you will. 

Last time I checked it was still a free country and I can live where and how I can afford.

Trains don't go anywhere I need or want to go on any regular basis, it is a 20 min drive to the nearest AMTRAK station from my house, it is of no value to me.

Maybe you want to live in 800 sq ft in a dirty, noisy, city, good for you.

I can't carry my construction tools on a bus or train......

Oh, that's right I'm one of the few who create wealth by building things rather than sitting in a cubical and manipulating wealth.......

I need my 4,000 sq ft house for my model trains..........

I earned it........

Sheldon

    

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