1 Train Law-No passenger train has ever made money on just passengers and those that claimed to do so has been by slight of hand. The mail is what made profits and when railroads figured that out they divorsed express from having to haul around pesky passengers and ran UPS and Fed Ex trains.
2. Brightline is being finaced by Junk Bonds that are not even investment grade. Fortress Invesments INC which went public at 15.00 a share way back in 2006 is now only trading at 5.00 a share. Its major shareholders are Japanese banks that are being investgated for conections to the Yakusa and South American instrests. So its a money laudering operation designed to lose money.
3. The bet is that the train will be succesfull enough that once it fails that the public demand will be so much to demand subsidy aka METRA commuter rail in which you cant live with it you cant live without it.
CandOforprogress2The bet is that the train will be succesfull enough that once it fails that the public demand will be so much to demand subsidy aka METRA commuter rail in which you cant live with it you cant live without it.
You really have no idea of what you are babbling about.
C&NW, CA&E, MILW, CGW and IC fan
From the outset FEC Industries touted Brighline as a real estate development deal.
Never too old to have a happy childhood!
Did the word "Failure" disappear from the dictionary? "Fail" is very rarely used as a noun in a very few circumstances, but not as used by the OP. He could also delete "be a huge", but that would be too easy.
I don't think that they intend to make money from the trains. The real purpose is to make money from real estate development along the ROW. There really can't be much of a market for passenger trains between Orlando and Miami.
runnerdude48 I don't think that they intend to make money from the trains. The real purpose is to make money from real estate development along the ROW. There really can't be much of a market for passenger trains between Orlando and Miami.
Actually the demographics to me anyway point to there being a market among the I can't drive anymore set lets meet the grandkids at Disney set but that is not enough to make money I agree the ROW is what matters.
Joe Staten Island West
If you want to get technical, the land development in and around the station areas in Miami, Fort Lauderdale and West Palm Beach has already earned a mint for the project's backers and the first trainset has yet to leave the factory. Now please put down the Kool-Aid and leave the trains to the professonals.
Editor Emeritus, This Week at Amtrak
Is not there a passenger train running north from Saratoga Springs, NY, that is making money for its mostly frieght short-line or regional railroad? What about the intended startup of Worcester - Providence commuter service? Doesn't the Cape Cod summer service more than break even for the MBTA, in contrast to all its other operations?
Specific markets, handled efficiently, can be exceptions.
I would disagree with most of the naysayers, even Amtrak has proven that corridor services for just an 85 mile corridor if run somewhat inefficiently can cover 98% of costs via farebox with enough frequency. Noteably and in a lot of cases, Amtrak is not charging or getting a take in parking fees and only recently discovered that it could make some money with retail at larger stations. Additionally, Amtrak doesn't own the Milwaukee Depot nor the Mitchell Field Airport Depot, and so lost a chunk of financial opportunity there.
So if you think about it, a private company, much more nimble an innovative on it's feet than Amtrak can probably eek out a marginal profit with enough frequency of trains between Orlando Airport and Miami. Even more so if they make the next logical move and obtain a interline agreement with some of the Airlines serving Orlando. Lots of ways FEC can innovate to improve the bottom line that Amtrak has never tried. It's a great start that they own almost all the Terminals they are stopping at. Ride to Miami with Rental Car waiting would be a great marketing package and it looks like they have plenty of room in the Miami station for rental car counters. Ride to Miami with Hotel Packages, another marketing package they could put together and get commissions on. Ride to Miami and Depart on Cruise Ships.......yet another way for folks that do not want to park in the Port area. Whole host of ride the train and proceed onto another destination marketing packages, Amtrak has never tried and probably will never try until Brightline does it.
Waiting in breathless anticipation of their Bistro Car to see how much they wipe the floor with past Amtrak excuses on not being able to run one without an astronomical loss attached. I have high confidence they will do a much better job financially with a bistro car. They might not make a profit BUT the loss associated with it will not be something that requires smelling salts during a Congressional Review.
All this is speculation right now though. Lets wait and see what happens in real time starting next year. I think they will be financially pressed on the Miami to West Palm Beach segment but will eventually be marginally profitable on Miami to Orlando.
Personally, I want someone to come up with a financially workable semi-high speed rail service from Miami to Key West with some stops along the way. They would not lack for passengers--especially on weekends when traffic flow can sometimes result in as long as 6 hour trips.
alphas Personally, I want someone to come up with a financially workable semi-high speed rail service from Miami to Key West with some stops along the way. They would not lack for passengers--especially on weekends when traffic flow can sometimes result in as long as 6 hour trips.
Johnny
Bistro service, at least on Deutsche Bahn, is like a cafe: hot and cold and alcoholic beverages, salads, cold and hot sausages & sandwiches and other hot entrees, including some regional specialties and pastries. It's quite good. Most items are 3 to 5 €; the most expensive (beef stew or Maultaschen currently) are 9,90 €.
Deggesty I said it "tongue in cheek" as I can't see any way it would be financially feasible. And I don't how they could get all the people using it into Key West if they did build it. But if someone would do it then it would be one of the greatest modern gifts to mankind. Anyone who has had to endure driving US1 in the Keys on a holiday weekend (or even on an ordinary weekend) knows what I'm talking about. Especially when you hit Plantation Key and it becomes a 2 lanes highway. alphas Personally, I want someone to come up with a financially workable semi-high speed rail service from Miami to Key West with some stops along the way. They would not lack for passengers--especially on weekends when traffic flow can sometimes result in as long as 6 hour trips. That would be interesting--where would you have the track laid? All new bridges? Granted, I have never been to Key West, but I wonder how much land would be available. Also, who would finance the construction?
I said it "tongue in cheek" as I can't see any way it would be financially feasible. And I don't how they could get all the people using it into Key West if they did build it. But if someone would do it then it would be one of the greatest modern gifts to mankind. Anyone who has had to endure driving US1 in the Keys on a holiday weekend (or even on an ordinary weekend) knows what I'm talking about. Especially when you hit Plantation Key and it becomes a 2 lanes highway.
That would be interesting--where would you have the track laid? All new bridges? Granted, I have never been to Key West, but I wonder how much land would be available. Also, who would finance the construction?
alphasPersonally, I want someone to come up with a financially workable semi-high speed rail service from Miami to Key West with some stops along the way. They would not lack for passengers--especially on weekends when traffic flow can sometimes result in as long as 6 hour trips.
And just what do you think US 1 was constructed on? The remains of the FEC's line from mainland Florida to Key West that was destroyed in a 1935 Hurricane. If you can resurect Henry M. Flagler and his Standard Oil (pre-income tax) wealth maybe the FEC can build another Overseas Highway.
I think if you check, even with a monopoly of only rail, there wasn't much business on that segment, though Flager was hoping it would build as each Island developed more. Very much doubt a newer version would work because of the low population density and inability to achieve fully loaded trains at frequencies that would pay back the investment made with bridges.
Also, I believe if you research it a little more the intended market might have been cutting time from Miami to Havanna via steamship vs just Key West........only a hunch on my part though. Have no idea what was in Mr Flagers head when he thought of that extension.
I think the profit and income is coming from land owned adjacent to the the bright line stations. Huge development around Miami central station, in ft Lauderdale, Boca, Delray, Boynton Beach and west palm will fuel profitability.
It still an unpleasant drive north or south on the Florida turnpike from Miami to Orlando. Even worst on the old beeline connecting Melbourne/ Titusville to Orlando.
The Orlando international airport has a strong international route base. The bright line will make it easy to connect to points on the east coast and south Florida.
But again I think it's all about the real estate, with more rail passengers than what you are projecting being a bonus.
The Last Train to Paradise by Les Standiford is an excellent account of the building, operation, and collapse of the FEC's railroad from Miami to Key West.
On a drive from Miami to Key West some of railroad bridges or remains of them can be seen.
The railroad was never a financial success.
Rio Grande Valley, CFI,CFII
https://archive.org/stream/keywestextension00flor#page/n9/mode/2up
I'm well aware of the history of "the railway that went to sea". Back then there was very little population other than fishing villages on any of the Keys until you got to Key West. The reasons the railway was built was because of the expected ocean traffic [which never happened] and its closeness to Cuba.
As I said, my comment was a joke. There is no way a new Miami to Key West railroad will ever be built. It would have to be built almost entirely on the water as no land space is available. The environment restrictions alone would prevent it plus the Keys property owners won't allow anything that spoiled their views of either the ocean or the gulf.
I couldn't agree more. Its never going to happen, nor should it happen. The last thing those living in the Keys want is to look out on the Atlantic or the Gulf and have their view spoiled by the sight of an endless causeway. I hereby agree to never post another "tongue in cheek" comment again on this forum.
[/quote]
Anyways back to the Original Post on Junk Bond Financing. That is also commonly done with high risk or uncertain projects. Nothing wrong with it as you can refinance the bonds at a much lower rate as soon as your project or business proves itself. What Junk Bond financing tells you is financial investors place a high risk on the expected outcome of this project. The Company has some padding before it needs to issue the Junk Bonds and either withdrew the first offering because they did not like the terms or they failed to capture enough interest. The second offering should go better because the investors see the project moving forwards on the ground and it looks to them like the project will happen if they participate or not........so that will be a push towards investors.
If you read Trumps book art of the Deal he has done similar with building projects to get them financed. On one project investors were reluctant, then he hired some buddy's construction equipment to start moving earth on the future building site and once investors saw that.........they jumped on board. In his case it was all a farce of course to push investors to finance.
There are two parts to Brightline. One is that is primarily a way to generate money from FEC's real estate holdings. That's what's going to pay back the initial capital outlay. The second part is train operation. All the train operation has to do is throw off enough cash to cover operating costs, incremental track maintenance and enough capital to replace/rebuild the equipment periodically. The initial estimates show this will be possible.
-Don (Random stuff, mostly about trains - what else? http://blerfblog.blogspot.com/)
Matthew has the posibility of severing several bridges on the Key west highway which would indicate the same problem for any rail line. Now depending of Matthew's track several FEC bridges could have severe damage much like happened to UP's Brazos river bridge ? From Mia to Cocoa and on to JAX /?
CMStPnPIf you read Trumps book art of the Deal he has done similar with building projects to get them financed.
He also stiffed contractors, paid 10 cents on the dollar on renogiated bonds, and declared bankruptcy four times.
schlimmHe also stiffed contractors, paid 10 cents on the dollar on renogiated bonds, and declared bankruptcy four times.
I watched Verizon spin off a subsidary that went bankrupt less than two years later. It was a scam for Verizon to shed over $8 Billion in bond debt and close to 5,000 employees in one transaction but to isolate the Verizon name and brand from the bankruptcy and the permanent layoff (review the whole Idearc Media transaction). Thats the smarter way to do it and if Trump was smarter he would have done it that way, I agree.
Small potatos compared with other transactions by much larger companies. It's only an issue because he is running for President. If he was CEO of Verizon he would be courted by the Democrats for political contributions. Stiffing contractors, since most of them that are complaining are in NYC, NJ and a very few in Las Vegas...........I would look at the contract and what the dispute was about but otherwise that would not surprise me either due to the lack of honesty in those three states when it comes to business contracts. In Manhatten he had to get the Mob's cooperation to get concrete poured on time to do that you have to grease the skids here and there as they say. That was back in the 1970's and 1980's and not sure it is still working that way in NYC today but I have my doubts the Democrats or Rudy for that matter completely cleaned up NYC.
Well if it does fail can Amtrak get the locos? Or Could Amtrak pick up the service?
CMStPnP schlimm He also stiffed contractors, paid 10 cents on the dollar on renogiated bonds, and declared bankruptcy four times. I watched Verizon spin off a subsidary that went bankrupt less than two years later. It was a scam for Verizon to shed over $8 Billion in bond debt and close to 5,000 employees in one transaction but to isolate the Verizon name and brand from the bankruptcy and the permanent layoff (review the whole Idearc Media transaction). Thats the smarter way to do it and if Trump was smarter he would have done it that way, I agree. Small potatos compared with other transactions by much larger companies. It's only an issue because he is running for President. If he was CEO of Verizon he would be courted by the Democrats for political contributions. Stiffing contractors, since most of them that are complaining are in NYC, NJ and a very few in Las Vegas...........I would look at the contract and what the dispute was about but otherwise that would not surprise me either due to the lack of honesty in those three states when it comes to business contracts. In Manhatten he had to get the Mob's cooperation to get concrete poured on time to do that you have to grease the skids here and there as they say. That was back in the 1970's and 1980's and not sure it is still working that way in NYC today but I have my doubts the Democrats or Rudy for that matter completely cleaned up NYC.
schlimm He also stiffed contractors, paid 10 cents on the dollar on renogiated bonds, and declared bankruptcy four times.
Our community is FREE to join. To participate you must either login or register for an account.