Trains.com

Radical Australian HSR proposal

1920 views
13 replies
1 rating 2 rating 3 rating 4 rating 5 rating
  • Member since
    July 2006
  • 9,610 posts
Radical Australian HSR proposal
Posted by schlimm on Thursday, July 14, 2016 3:56 PM

C&NW, CA&E, MILW, CGW and IC fan

  • Member since
    September 2011
  • 6,449 posts
Posted by MidlandMike on Thursday, July 14, 2016 8:30 PM

This appears to be more of a string of real estate developments that happends to be tied together by HSR.  The route connects the real estate already owned.  There is no indication that this is the best route to connect the endpoints, or existing intermediate cities.  This reminds me of FEC's Florida HrSR project.  They are upgrading the line between Miami-WPB where they own the real estate around the three stations.  However, beyond this they can't seem to sell the junk bonds to get to Orlando, where the airport controls the development.  They also said  they would need no tax money, but are looking for a $billion FRA loan.

  • Member since
    July 2006
  • 9,610 posts
Posted by schlimm on Friday, July 15, 2016 9:16 AM

Hey if it gets an HSR line built with minimal direct tax contributions, what's wrong with that?  With HSR speeds, slightly longer routes that serve more potention population centers is a positive trade-off.

C&NW, CA&E, MILW, CGW and IC fan

  • Member since
    September 2014
  • 376 posts
Posted by GERALD L MCFARLANE JR on Friday, July 15, 2016 9:49 PM

MidlandMike

This appears to be more of a string of real estate developments that happends to be tied together by HSR.  The route connects the real estate already owned.  There is no indication that this is the best route to connect the endpoints, or existing intermediate cities.  This reminds me of FEC's Florida HrSR project.  They are upgrading the line between Miami-WPB where they own the real estate around the three stations.  However, beyond this they can't seem to sell the junk bonds to get to Orlando, where the airport controls the development.  They also said  they would need no tax money, but are looking for a $billion FRA loan.

Note, that's an FRA "LOAN", which means it will be repaid, and though it technically is using tax dollars, it's not a direct funding agreement...so in essence the AAF is not using tax dollars to fund the Orlando extension, which by the way, if you have any spare change laying aroun I would heartily suggest you invest in...Orlando airport owing the development rights or not.  I can guarantee once the service starts up you'll see billion dollar investment(s) on those properties(the airport authority isn't going to look a gift horse in the mouth, trust me).

  • Member since
    September 2011
  • 6,449 posts
Posted by MidlandMike on Friday, July 15, 2016 9:52 PM

schlimm

Hey if it gets an HSR line built with minimal direct tax contributions, what's wrong with that?  With HSR speeds, slightly longer routes that serve more potention population centers is a positive trade-off.

 

I want the best possible route chosen because I am an HSR perfectionist!!!

Seriously, I just don't see this thing ever getting financed.  It relies on all 8 cities being developed successfully. The only train trip I ever took in Australia was from Melbourne to Sydney.  I can see why everyone lives along the coast.  A line that is not built on the optimum route, will forever be a higher cost to operate line.  The optimally located line is as likely to attract population as a more roundabout route.

  • Member since
    September 2011
  • 6,449 posts
Posted by MidlandMike on Friday, July 15, 2016 10:17 PM

Mr. McFarlane, I would love to see AAF expand to Orlando, and I don't really have a problem with the FRA loan.  My concern is that Fortress Funds has had problems selling the bonds, which are rated as junk.  Do you have any good news on the bonds?

  • Member since
    September 2003
  • 21,669 posts
Posted by Overmod on Saturday, July 16, 2016 7:59 AM

MidlandMike
A line that is not built on the optimum route, will forever be a higher cost to operate line. The optimally located line is as likely to attract population as a more roundabout route.

You could say the same thing about the Amtrak 'second spine line' for the Northeast Corridor, with about the same level of understanding of financial considerations.

Of course a modern HSR line is going to have to be run where people haven't bid up the price, or restricted the accessibility, of the required land.  It follows, just from the described material, that all the real estate that is to be developed needs to start at very low assessed value ... and be bid up entirely de novo to almost ridiculously high rates, which pretty well means Garden City-like PUDs developed in whatever practical phases the financing can be made to support.  

The argument that physically longer lines have relatively less 'importance' to HSR routing (compared to their physical optimization for high-speed operation) is as important as the argument that HSR peak grade means comparatively little in sections very close, or relatively far away, from stations.  It's cute to be a "perfectionist" and hold out for the 3 to 6 minute improvement in end-to-end timing that eliminating the big curve from Hartford to NYC via the Long Island route would confer... but are enough people riding the high-speed train from Boston to Washington going to care about that specific time saving to make that their reason to switch modes?  The same is true for a longer route that reduces first cost, very likely for any HSR-graded route between the Australian cities.

The argument about "all eight cities needing to be developed successfully" is much more important, in part because of the likely unanticipated consequences on the other real-estate markets (and by extension, on real estate as a store of value in the general economy).  Perhaps the Australian culture is better able to implement the required expansion (or see to it that the effects are sterilized, in the financial sense, effectively).

  • Member since
    October 2014
  • 1,139 posts
Posted by Gramp on Saturday, July 16, 2016 3:44 PM

Wasn't Sao Paulo, Brazil a "built from scratch" city created to house a burgeoning population?  I think it's Brazil's biggest city today.

  • Member since
    August 2005
  • From: At the Crossroads of the West
  • 11,013 posts
Posted by Deggesty on Saturday, July 16, 2016 4:09 PM

According to Wikipedia, Sao Paulo was founded in 1554 as the location of a Jesuit college.

Brasilia, the capital of Brazil, was founded in 1960.

Johnny

  • Member since
    November 2013
  • 1,097 posts
Posted by Buslist on Saturday, July 16, 2016 9:13 PM

Deggesty

According to Wikipedia, Sao Paulo was founded in 1554 as the location of a Jesuit college.

Brasilia, the capital of Brazil, was founded in 1960.

 

Brasila is one of the nastiest cities I've ever visited. No organic life at all, way over planned. No mass transit until a couple of years ago.

  • Member since
    October 2014
  • 1,139 posts
Posted by Gramp on Monday, July 18, 2016 1:03 PM

Thanks for the correction.

I remember reading how "new town" planners, living in their ivory towers, would forget to leave room for cemeteries and other real-life things in their grand plans.

  • Member since
    September 2003
  • 21,669 posts
Posted by Overmod on Monday, July 18, 2016 1:39 PM

Buslist
Brasila is one of the nastiest cities I've ever visited. No organic life at all, way over planned. No mass transit until a couple of years ago.

Corb during one of his less sensible periods, built to a price, maintained by low-rent civil servants.  Not a pretty picture in any real respect

  • Member since
    November 2013
  • 1,097 posts
Posted by Buslist on Monday, July 18, 2016 4:06 PM

Overmod

 

 
Buslist
Brasila is one of the nastiest cities I've ever visited. No organic life at all, way over planned. No mass transit until a couple of years ago.

 

Corb during one of his less sensible periods, built to a price, maintained by low-rent civil servants.  Not a pretty picture in any real respect

 

I've been told that it has the highest suicide rate among single females in the world.

Join our Community!

Our community is FREE to join. To participate you must either login or register for an account.

Search the Community

Newsletter Sign-Up

By signing up you may also receive occasional reader surveys and special offers from Trains magazine.Please view our privacy policy