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<p>According to "Projections of Highway Trust Fund Accounts Under CBO's February 2014 Baseline<br />By Fiscal Years, in Billions of Dollars", the short fall in the HTF for 2018 is projected to be $12 billion.</p> <p>The average annual cumulative shortfall through 2024, according to the same table, is expected to be $12.9 billion per year. Apparently the table has been updated since I first checked it.</p> <p>Anyone familiar with regression models knows or should know that there is a considerable amount of wiggle room in financial (statistical) projections, especially those that go out more than a year. Moreover, as soon as someone states a future number, unless it is for tomorrow, I know that it probably is or will be wrong. </p> <p>CBO projections are based on statistical samples. To really understand the numbers one has to know the constructs for the sample, as well as the regression techniques used to develop the trend lines and forecasts. If one is using a statistical sample to project a future outcome, the result cannot be projected to the population as a single number. It should be projected as a range of possible outcomes.</p> <p>As long as transportation in the United States, as well as other OECD countries, is influenced heavily by politics, which it is, any proposed outcome that is not politically doable is DOA. </p>
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