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A Better Use of EAS money
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<p>The key question is what should the nation invest in passenger rail? What it invests or has invested in other modes of transport is irrelevant. It is a sunk cost.</p> <p>If passenger rail was a potentially productive investment, investors would fall all over themselves to get a piece of the action irrespective of what the other guys invest in commercial air, highways, etc. That is how markets work!</p> <p>Price is just one of the transport mode determinants. To the extent that it is influenced by subsidies, it can influence choice. But it is not the only determinant. Comfort, convenience, my space vs. communal space, technical superiority, etc. are all important factors in choosing a mode of transport.</p> <p>Proponents of Amtrak should project a low profile on this subject. It is the only intercity commercial mode that gets a direct cash subsidy from the federal and state governments. The other modes (commercial air, buses, cruise ships, etc.) don't receive a direct cash payment from any government, as far as I can determine, although they may realize an indirect benefit to the extent that their user fees don't pay the fully allocated cost of the infrastructure that they use. This is a widely debated subject that we have beat to death in these forums.</p> <p>In 2002 Daniel Kahneman was awared the Nobel Peace Prize in Economic Sciences. What made his award unusual is that Dr. Kahneman is a psychologist. His research, as well as that of others, has shown that people's decisions are not as rationale as economists had thought. Their research suggests strongly that many factors drive people's choices. Price is just one of the economic variables.</p> <p>Most people in Texas, at least, will still go for personal vehicles, as long as they can afford them, irrespective of the comparative costs, before they will jump on a train or bus. As the nation and Texas become more congested, the cost dynamic will change, I believe, in favor of a more balanced transport system. As more and more people find driving or flying a hassle, they would look to quick, convenient, comfortable, affordable trains if they are available. Sadly, by the time it happens in Texas, I will be gone.</p> <p>The cost of roadways is knownable. Most highways in the United States are built by contractors. They bill the cost of the work to the authorizing agency. The billings must be supported properly. The documents are kept for decades. Accordingly, it would be possible to trace the cost of every mile of the interstate highway system, although it would be a laborious task. And probably not worth doing.</p>
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