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[quote user="John WR"] I think load factor is at best a rough estimate for availability of space on a train.   The reason is that not all riders get in at the first station and ride all the miles up to the last station.  People get on an off during the trip.   Load factor is the relationship of passenger miles to seat miles.  If you have people riding for relatively short distances (such as BWI to Philadelphia) the seats can be filled on that part of the journey may there may be empty seats before BWI and after Philadelphia.    Unlike the private railroads that preceded it, Amtrak does not sell more tickets that it has seats, not even for short distances.   That will tend to decrease the load factor.  [/quote] The average load factor takes into consideration all the segments.  It could be very high on one segment, i.e. BWI to Phildelphia, but at roughly 48 per cent most segments served by the NEC regional trains are operating way under capacity. Several years ago a person who used to participate in these forums made a reasonably good argument that 65 per cent is near the capacity for a railroad train, although he did not have any supporting data to back-up his argument. Amtrak uses a yield management system like those used by the airlines. These systems contain some robust predictive algorithms. I would be surprised if Amtrak's does not contain a "no show" factor.  And I would be further surprised if Amtrak, like the airlines, does not sell more tickets than it has seats, especially during peak periods, to optimize revenue.
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