Let me rephrase that so it says more of what I meant: He's getting at a claim that the proportion of business travel on Amtrak, outside of specialty destination pairs, is comparatively slight. He's saying it, not me.
I am of the opinion that much of the increase on services like the Carolinian is indeed business-related. Discussing exactly how much Amtrak traffic is actually business-related AND attracted from other potential modes is one of the reasons, I think, that the OP raised the question.
OvermodEven the qualitative things can be monetized. Thought the value may differ from person to person, the distribution of the value can still be used in models to do predictions and get useful results.
Sampling and surveying. Analysis of existing data. Correlation of inputs and outputs. Same way value of air quality is done. Same way cost/benefit of environmental regs is done. Not easy. Not precise, but as my Engr Econ professor said, "An imperfect economic analysis is better than none at all!"
-Don (Random stuff, mostly about trains - what else? http://blerfblog.blogspot.com/)
Reference Business class. ------
Although Mother's day Sunday may skew results.for tomorrow ----
1. Palmetto & Carolinian business class sold ou.
2. Some Downeasters sold out.
3. All NYP - Alb BC sold out + some BC trains sold out ALB - Buft
4. Most CHI BC outbounds sold out. however that may be skewed for Michigan trains as all coach sold out.
Once again seems like a lack of equipment ?
Sam1Mathematical (statistical) models emulate the real world. And they give researchers insights into what is going on or what might be possible.
I guess I didn't make it as clear as I should have that the course was about creating mathematical models.
The main problem is that discussions always end up into "why the status quo must continue". There is always an excuse of some kind. The discussions get tiring. It is hard to explain the benefits of something when it continually runs into problems CAHSR being an example. It is hard to be an advocate of something when it fails at what it does (Amtrak).
Railroad to Freedom
ontheBNSF The main problem is that discussions always end up into "why the status quo must continue". There is always an excuse of some kind. The discussions get tiring. It is hard to explain the benefits of something when it continually runs into problems CAHSR being an example. It is hard to be an advocate of something when it fails at what it does (Amtrak).
Yes, it is hard. So, you quit when things get hard? No. You get busy.
My take is that Amtrak is a political reality. But, it is a hot mess in many regards which makes it an easy target for the "anti passenger" folk. I'd bet it's the reason some of the "antis" have their point of view.
So, what to do?
It think all attempts to "privatize" it wholly or in pieces are fantasy - or circus - or both. So nothing will come of them.
I also think that any thoughts about "making money" moving people are also fantasy. Even "all aboard FL". $145M in gross revenue can't pay for a $1.5B investment. There is something they are not telling us....
The only real answer, I think, it to "fix Amtrak". That's what advocates should do. Cheer Amtrak when they do well. Boo them when they do poorly. Hold them accountable. Expect continuous improvement to be generated internally. Expect wise investments. Write your congressmen. Tell your friends.
So, how about it?
blue streak 1 Reference Business class. ------ Although Mother's day Sunday may skew results.for tomorrow ---- 1. Palmetto & Carolinian business class sold ou. 2. Some Downeasters sold out. 3. All NYP - Alb BC sold out + some BC trains sold out ALB - Buft 4. Most CHI BC outbounds sold out. however that may be skewed for Michigan trains as all coach sold out. Once again seems like a lack of equipment ?
Sounds like more coaches should have BC seats installed. Or, BC rates should be higher - or have a steeper yield curve on price. Or, both?
More equipment would be "nice" but you'll lose your shirt if you "build for Easter Sunday". Ideally, you do your fleet size for the average and then vary your pricing to flatten the peaks and fill the valleys.
oltmannd So, what to do? It think all attempts to "privatize" it wholly or in pieces are fantasy - or circus - or both. So nothing will come of them. I also think that any thoughts about "making money" moving people are also fantasy. Even "all aboard FL". $145M in gross revenue can't pay for a $1.5B investment. There is something they are not telling us.... The only real answer, I think, it to "fix Amtrak". That's what advocates should do. Cheer Amtrak when they do well. Boo them when they do poorly. Hold them accountable. Expect continuous improvement to be generated internally. Expect wise investments. Write your congressmen. Tell your friends. So, how about it?
Reform! Reform! To be effective, that will mean some radical changes, not just same ol' same ol' as we have witnessed. for 40 years with a few breakthroughs. It means developing real corridor services in heavily populated areas where there is a short enough distance to be competitive at higher speeds. As speeds increase, the length of such corridors can increase as well. It also means not spending capital improvement money for long distance services, especially non-revenue, non-passenger items like 50 new baggage cars when a seat shortage apparently exists. Some rail fans might not like that, but it is necessary, IMO..
C&NW, CA&E, MILW, CGW and IC fan
oltmanndThe only real answer, I think, it to "fix Amtrak". That's what advocates should do. Cheer Amtrak when they do well. Boo them when they do poorly. Hold them accountable. Expect continuous improvement to be generated internally. Expect wise investments. Write your congressmen. Tell your friends.
Don,
It is hard to quarrel with you because you have an unpleasant habit of making your arguments crystal clear band basing them on the well known facts of the situation.
Let me try to make a couple of small points. Amtrak is in fact a big and rather entrenched bureaucracy. Such things are not changed easily. Where they have good points that is good; when there have bad points it is not so good. Also, many people would like to see changes in Amtrak. However, not all of those people agree about what the changes should be.
John
John WR oltmanndThe only real answer, I think, it to "fix Amtrak". That's what advocates should do. Cheer Amtrak when they do well. Boo them when they do poorly. Hold them accountable. Expect continuous improvement to be generated internally. Expect wise investments. Write your congressmen. Tell your friends. Don, It is hard to quarrel with you because you have an unpleasant habit of making your arguments crystal clear band basing them on the well known facts of the situation. Let me try to make a couple of small points. Amtrak is in fact a big and rather entrenched bureaucracy. Such things are not changed easily. Where they have good points that is good; when there have bad points it is not so good. Also, many people would like to see changes in Amtrak. However, not all of those people agree about what the changes should be. John
Don has an unpleasant habit? What does he do, dip tobacco snuff and spit on the carpet?
Yes, there are probably "issues" with Amtrak that come with any large organization with that much of a government tie-in (cough, subsidy, cough).
I also thing there are "issues" with the advocacy community. Amtrak may or may not listen to us, but the advocacy community is well represented here that we can hammer out what it is that we should ask Amtrak to do.
On many rail-oriented boards there are always the naysayers. You say, "wouldn't it be neat if they had gas turbine trains" and someone says "gas turbines use too much fuel and are sensitive to coupling shocks." You say, "let's advocate for HSR" and someone says "it will never work, we don't have the population density" and so on.
I really don't think you can pin the naysayer label on Don. He has concrete ideas and proposals on what to do. He once suggested that Amtrak appoint a railroad liaison person with Norfolk Southern and other corporations. I had jokingly suggested that such a person be called a "Norfolk Southern whisperer." A "horse whisperer" is someone who has a gentle way in training and working with horses. The Norfolk Southern corporate slogan is "The Thoroughbred", a kind of horse. A "Norfolk Southern" whisperer would be someone who understood the corporate culture, who could get the host railroad to help Amtrak by knowing the people at the railroad and how to make their jobs a little simpler. Someone who could engage in some "horse trading" of things that would benefit the railroad in exchange of something to aid Amtrak, to excuse another bad pun.
Who boy! did that suggestion run into a buzz-saw of nay-saying criticism. Corporations and especially railroad companies are Evil don'tchaknowit and why doesn't the gummint just write Norfolk Southern a blank check to do what they want! The only way to train "The Thoroughbred" is with whips and electric jolts!
Don once suggested, no, he simply pointed out that Norfolk Southern employs one quarter the employees in its shops as does Beech Grove, for an admittedly apples and oranges comparison. Norfolk Southern probably follows in the tradition of Norfolk and Western that had the most Cracker Jack steam locomotive maintenance shops in history whereas Amtrak is, well, kinda like the gummint. Or more like the Pennsylvania RR that couldn't keep T1s on the road.
Or maybe, as I has suggested, there is something about the shock and vibration environment of railroads that make passenger equipment expensive in relation to the rubber-tire motorcoach bus. This is an engineering question and as a research engineer I simply live for asking and getting answers to such "big picture" questions.
But talk about naysayers when we consider the responses Don got. How dare you compare passenger trains to NS's freight operations. Passenger trains need that much more TLC (if passenger trains need all of that intensive servicing, 1) maybe that explains why Amtrak needs such high rates of subsidy, and 2) let's figure out why and maybe we can improve passenger trains to make them less costly that we can have more of them?) The naysayer mode is "passenger trains are what they are and just accept that, and the gummint should just pay the money to run them."
No, we are not going to get 100% agreement on passenger advocacy. But there is, in fact, a passenger advocacy "consensus" that is widely held, that consensus is broadly represented and expressed by NARP, and that consensus has had us "stuck in neutral" for the last 40 years of Amtrak.
What is refreshing about this Web site is the diversity of opinion. We need that if we are ever to achieve a "break out" with wide expansion of passenger rail.
If GM "killed the electric car", what am I doing standing next to an EV-1, a half a block from the WSOR tracks?
DON: looking at booking for this week about 1/2 of business class is sold out especiallyout of CHI. I do not think that it is an "Easter holiday" type demand.
Of course if some of the states do not pony up their share of the operating costs for short haul trains there may not be an equipment shortage ?
oltmannd ontheBNSF The main problem is that discussions always end up into "why the status quo must continue". There is always an excuse of some kind. The discussions get tiring. It is hard to explain the benefits of something when it continually runs into problems CAHSR being an example. It is hard to be an advocate of something when it fails at what it does (Amtrak). Yes, it is hard. So, you quit when things get hard? No. You get busy. My take is that Amtrak is a political reality. But, it is a hot mess in many regards which makes it an easy target for the "anti passenger" folk. I'd bet it's the reason some of the "antis" have their point of view. So, what to do? It think all attempts to "privatize" it wholly or in pieces are fantasy - or circus - or both. So nothing will come of them. What is more fantastical expecting the government to provide effective passenger service. The same government which nearly killed the railroads. The same government which has threatened to cut Amtrak funding the same government which has attempted re-regulation. The same government which subsidized roads and sprawl to the tune of billions of dollars. Privatization proposals have been successful in the past Conrail and Canadian national were both privatized successfully. JR was privatized (as private as anything is in Japan). So its not impossible. I also think that any thoughts about "making money" moving people are also fantasy. Even "all aboard FL". $145M in gross revenue can't pay for a $1.5B investment. There is something they are not telling us.... That's one proposal that isn't very good. Other passenger services have turned a profit. The only real answer, I think, it to "fix Amtrak". That's what advocates should do. Cheer Amtrak when they do well. Boo them when they do poorly. Hold them accountable. Expect continuous improvement to be generated internally. Expect wise investments. Write your congressmen. Tell your friends. So, how about it?
What is more fantastical expecting the government to provide effective passenger service. The same government which nearly killed the railroads. The same government which has threatened to cut Amtrak funding the same government which has attempted re-regulation. The same government which subsidized roads and sprawl to the tune of billions of dollars. Privatization proposals have been successful in the past Conrail and Canadian national were both privatized successfully. JR was privatized (as private as anything is in Japan). So its not impossible.
That's one proposal that isn't very good. Other passenger services have turned a profit.
I have explained before you can't "fix" Amtrak atleast as it currently is. You could recycle the Amtrak brand name and use it for other things but the model Amtrak is set up as is a failure. Amtrak is designed to be a political football by its very nature. Amtrak is functioning exactly as it is supposed to be.
Paul,
I generally avoid personal comments. However, with Don I must make an exception. He insists, absolutely insists, on using clearly stated sound arguments. That is intolerable.
ontheBNSFI have explained before you can't "fix" Amtrak atleast as it currently is. You could recycle the Amtrak brand name and use it for other things but the model Amtrak is set up as is a failure. Amtrak is designed to be a political football by its very nature. Amtrak is functioning exactly as it is supposed to be.
There are tons of things Amtrak could be doing on their own to improve their position. NARP is their enabler, however, and Amtrak has only shown to move when pushed.
John WR Paul, I generally avoid personal comments. However, with Don I must make an exception. He insists, absolutely insists, on using clearly stated sound arguments. That is intolerable. John
I'll try to do better!
ontheBNSFThat's one proposal that isn't very good. Other passenger services have turned a profit.
The first TGV route, maybe. The rest? Nope. They cover their cost above the rail (like Acela) but they can't pay back the capital. France is currently playing a "shell game" with who pays for what.
The justification for spending the capital from tax money comes from examining the alternatives. It can be cheaper, in dense corridors, to build HSR rather than airports or additional highway.
You can't start with "I like trains" and work backward to get the answer you want. Well, you can, but you'd be intellectually dishonest.
oltmannd ontheBNSFThat's one proposal that isn't very good. Other passenger services have turned a profit. The first TGV route, maybe. The rest? Nope. They cover their cost above the rail (like Acela) but they can't pay back the capital. France is currently playing a "shell game" with who pays for what. The justification for spending the capital from tax money comes from examining the alternatives. It can be cheaper, in dense corridors, to build HSR rather than airports or additional highway. You can't start with "I like trains" and work backward to get the answer you want. Well, you can, but you'd be intellectually dishonest.
In terms of exceeding capital cost JR and Taiwan both did do that. That said if HSR really isn't financially viable alternatives can be explored. ET3, Hyperloop, and Swissmetro can be built for less cost than HSR, use less energy, and require less maintenance.
ontheBNSFIn terms of exceeding capital cost JR and Taiwan both did do that.
JR with the additional 'fillip' of Old Man Thunder lying through his teeth knowing full well it would cost a lot more! Perhaps some sort of fibbing with statistics could be 'ginned up for the World Bank or whoever to throw money at. Just do NOT give any sort of PG... ;-}
That said if HSR really isn't financially viable alternatives can be explored. ET3, Hyperloop, and Swissmetro can be built for less cost than HSR, use less energy, and require less maintenance.
The trick, I think, is to find some greater fools, like the initial enterprise that built the Eurotunnel. (And that is about the most extreme demonstration of a rail project with no comparable competition in its niche!)
Expect some fancy refinancing, and fleecing of initial fools, er, shareholders, for any company purporting to build HSR in the United States. Technically that applies to taxpayers on the amount of government assistance on capital construction. And we have not even started on the various issues of liability and risk...
Also rail gets associated with the "green" agenda and the agenda 21 crowd. I am personally not a fan of it and I hope others distance themselves from them. Many of these people want this stuff forced upon people but I do not see it as the solution. Cheers.
John WR If everyone looked only at price everyone would ride long distance buses. But everyone doesn't.
If everyone looked only at price everyone would ride long distance buses. But everyone doesn't.
Exactly. I work hard so I don't have to travel cheap and suffer.. If I can't afford to really enjoy a vacation, I won't go. Business travel is different, of course; I go where I am told when I am told!
Sean
HO Scale CSX Modeler
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