surprize -- AAF cost projections rise and start of service now may be late 2015
http://www.bizjournals.com/southflorida/news/2012/12/18/passenger-rail-company-all-aboard.html?page=all
blue streak 1 surprize -- AAF cost projections rise and start of service now may be late 2015 http://www.bizjournals.com/southflorida/news/2012/12/18/passenger-rail-company-all-aboard.html?page=all
"AAF will begin negotiations with FDOT to determine the lease terms that will allow our $1.5 billion private investment to move forward quickly so we can enhance Florida's transportation network and begin to create thousands of new jobs in our state.”
What does this mean? It implies that FDOT is going to fund the construction of the rail line or at least guarantee the bonds and then lease it to AAF to operate it? Or at least it is not clear who is leasing what!
The cost and schedule estimates for construction projects of this scope are difficult to determine. The adjustments are minor compared to those for the California High Speed Rail Project, which began with an estimate of $32 billion. It eventually reached $98 billion before a breath of sobriety hit the promoters and was scaled back to $68 billion.
Sam,
I read the portion of the statement you questioned as saying, "We want to get started soon." It includes no mention of FDOT funding or bond guarantees.
Mac
From TrainsNewswire of 12/19/2012:
FTA:"...ORLANDO, Fla. – All Aboard Florida got the go-ahead Tuesday to begin negotiating for a right-of-way along the BeachLine Expressway that is crucial to its $1 billion plan to operate privately operated passenger service between Miami and Orlando, Fla., the Orlando Sentinel reported.A Florida Department of Transportation committee agreed to open talks with the company for free use of land the state agency owns jointly with the Orlando Orange County Expressway Authority. If a deal is reached, construction on the line that would link Orlando International Airport with Miami could start next year with service beginning in late 2014 or early 2015.State and Orlando officials are willing to part with the property, but the authority is not willing to give up the ability to add lanes and interchanges to the BeachLine, now a four-lane highway. That could increase construction costs by forcing the tracks to either go under or over planned interchanges.Expressway Authority spokeswoman Michelle Maikisch said her agency is ready to enter into discussions, but “at what level and exactly when, I don’t know.” FDOT procurement manager Carla Perry said, “We are moving ahead with the process.”Florida East Coast Industries is backing the new service, which would operate over 200 miles of Florida East Coast railway tracks from Miami to near Cocoa. The line then would head west for more than 30 miles to the airport.All Aboard Florida is seeking land along the southern edge of the BeachLine. But the state and authority could not sign a deal with All Aboard Florida without first making sure no better offers were available. The agencies sought bids starting in October, and All Aboard Florida was the only applicant, leading to the award Tuesday..."
Seems like what is about to happen here is that the entity of AAF is just going into negotiations with FDOT to get deed to a ROW alongside an existing Turnpike, but the body of the negotiations will be what ramps and what entrances and exits will be bridged or tunneled to assist vehicular traffic flow. These kinds of negotiations can be long and troublesome, before they are resolved.
IF you use the Newswire Search Option (between Jan 1,2012 and current, There are four stories that pull on this topic.).
I agree. While the road has the advantage of dealing only with one decision making body, the disadvantage will be the costs of roadway modifications, and perhaps a railroad profile that looks like a sine wave.
I have noted several times how difficult it would be to put a full size rail line down the middle of a freeway. AAF seems to be going for the edge of the right of way which implies to me a lot of side road bridges taller than freeway bridges. Unless there are very few side roads, the cost of dealing with them will not be trivial.
Latest news is that annual revenue is projected at $145M. They are going to have to have a very low OR in order to cover their $1.5B capital costs and have any left over for profit.
-Don (Random stuff, mostly about trains - what else? http://blerfblog.blogspot.com/)
PNWRMNM AAF seems to be going for the edge of the right of way which implies to me a lot of side road bridges taller than freeway bridges. Unless there are very few side roads, the cost of dealing with them will not be trivial. Mac
AAF seems to be going for the edge of the right of way which implies to me a lot of side road bridges taller than freeway bridges. Unless there are very few side roads, the cost of dealing with them will not be trivial.
Don,
Agree, like ZERO, to make if pay.
Streak.
I have no local knowlege. If only three cross roads, then I would agree the cross roads will not be a huge cost.
Maybe my guessing wasn't too far off. Here's what I posted in one of Fred Frailey's blogs when this topic first came up. Looks like I was a bit low on the fares - it seems they'll be in the 40 cents per mile area.
The numbers still don't seem to work out....
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Ballpark guestimate. Assume that this kind of corridor service will look a bit like Amtrak corridors other than the NEC, perhaps "on steroids"....
Assuming 12 round trips a day with 200 passengers (5 coaches, 50% load factor) per trip travelling 200 miles each at 30 cents per mile, you get revenues of about $100M per year. Even if you applied all of this to the $1B debt, that's quite a long simple payback period. You'd probably have to get 5X this to get in the ballpark of profitable.
It is estimated that the railway will add more than 30 billion yuan to China's gross domestic product (GDP) every year.
http://english.people.com.cn/90778/8074112.html
Claim economic development resulting, but not deposited in the fare box. Get money from the government by doing so.
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