Amtrak released a revised 5 year strategic plan Sep 30th.
Look under Plans and go to 5 yrs strategic plan.
http://www.amtrak.com/servlet/ContentServer?c=Page&pagename=am%2FLayout&p=1237608345018&cid=1241245669222
Some points to look for
The plan appears to assume no additional rolling stock other than straight retirement / replacement?
will revise later
1. Amtrak states that this 5 year plan is a rolling one so I assume that a revision will be issued every year?
2. the plan uses FY 2010 as base line then going thru 2015.
3. There is some increase in average speeds ( more further ) that must anticipate NEC improvements now funded. Speed increases on LD must be divided between NEC, Amtrak ROW ( michigan, Albany, etc,) and host RRs.
4. Rolling stock increases do not appear to be considerred very much ?
5. Acela breakdown ? May include Regional but not quite clear
year FY 2010 FY 2015
effective speed +2.5 MPH
airport connections 2 5
Electric consumption 129.7 MKWH 123.3 MKWH
On time 83.2% 90%
Pass Miles/ train mile 185 194
Ridership 11.67M 15.5M
KWH / Seat mile 51.6 48.1
6. State supported
speed +2.5 MPH
Ridership 13.86 17.7M
Pass miles/ tr mile 130 137
7. Commuter
Ridership 27.2 31.2
On time 90.7% 95%
8. Long distance
On time 74.6% 90% (seems unrealistic)
intermediate sta OT 62.4% 90%
Pass miles/ traiin mile 194 203
9. All in all report mentions getting more Acela cars but appears not anticipated by FY 2015. The additonal single level sleepers may be the increase shown in LD. Additional SL equipment is only anticipated for commuter and short distance trains by FY 2015 at present
10. The "Plan" uses FY 2010 since it was written before FY 2011 was complete. The 6.5% Edit 5.1%e total ridership increase of 2011 almost makes this plan out of date or at least it enable easy reach of the 2015's goals with exception of on times.
11. Many metrics that Amtrak has claimed were not available appear in one form or anothe in the plan
Note: Just checked FY end of year audited report and fiures on ridership do not appear to be same.
blue streak 1 The plan appears to assume no additional rolling stock other than straight retirement / replacement?
For the plans and thoughts on acquiring new rolling stock, check the Fleet Strategy Plan V2 which was released in February, 2011. The Strategic Plan is a more general document with some overall performance metric goals, but does not say much about how Amtrak plans to get there. The Fleet Strategy Plan is more specific on equipment needs and the near term plans for equipment purchases, but finding the funding for the purchases is the issue. The Fleet Strategy plan uses a 2% annual growth rate as the baseline, but a key part of the fleet acquisition plan is to place orders in smaller incremental quantities to keep production lines open which will allow for additional orders to be placed if more cars need to be ordered.
With the HSIPR grants in place to order 120 bi-level corridor coach cars, Amtrak should have the option to piggy back on that order for cars configured for their LD Superliner fleet needs. The next rolling stock order likely to be announced by Amtrak is for 40 Acela coach cars to add 2 cars to the 20 Acela trainsets. The Acela coach cars will pay for themselves relatively quickly in increased revenue, so the funding for that order should not be a problem.
The 5 year Strategic Plan has some disconnects: system wide passenger growth of +2.55%, but the NEC section calls for +5.8% and the state & short corridor section calls for +5%. At the current growth rates, Amtrak should exceed the FY15 32.5 million passenger goal in FY13. But a plan should have some more achievable goals and some difficult ones (the On-Time Performance goal of 90% for the LD trains is not likely to be reached).
blue streak 1 3. There is some increase in average speeds ( more further ) that must anticipate NEC improvements now funded. Speed increases on LD must be divided between NEC, Amtrak ROW ( michigan, Albany, etc,) and host RRs. 5. Acela breakdown ? May include Regional but not quite clear
The change in average speed calculations is based on "defined as train mileage divided by the sum of (a) the scheduled end-to-end running time plus (b) the average endpoint terminal lateness." See the Appendix. If the On-Time Performance for LD trains is improved, that combined with some faster corridors should increase the average speed. But +2.5 mph in 4 years for the LD trains is a challenge. More achievable for the short corridor trains as a group with the big improvements for the Chicago-St. Louis, Chi-Detroit services and lesser improvements for the Cascades, Surfliner, Heartland Flyer, River Runner, other Michigan trains, Piedmont, Empire Corridor, Ethan Allen, Vermonter, and Downeaster.
The 5. group of goals you list is for the entire NEC for Acelas & Regionals, the eastern Keystone, and very likely the New Haven to Springfield corridor. If the track miles for the eastern Keystone and NHV-SPG corridors are added to the NEC, the average speed improvements on those 2 off-shoot corridors over the next 3-4 years should bump the overall average up by more then 2.5 mph even if the NEC trip times don't improve. And the NEC should see some trip time improvements with the projects that have been funded and completed by end of FY2015.
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