Right now the oil and gasoline futures are being pushed up in price by various retirement funds trying to get a jump and make a buck. The final price peak is unknown and then if and when a price decrease will happen is unknown. At noon today refinery gasoline was priced at $3.05 / gal. In Georgia retail gasoline costs about $.45 / gal mre in about 3 days after a refinery posted price. So we can expect $3.50 / gal by Thursday here in Georgia.
My question is: Have any posters seen an uptick in traffic both AMTRAK and the various commuter rail lines?
Weather and other problems have cut back word days in the Northeast over the past week into this week, so you probably won't see any effects in the reproted numbers until at least next week. However, note that gas prices in the NE are higher than you are reporting...have been well over $3.50 in many places with $4.00 not unheard of. So, the answer to your question next week will be: yes, there is an increase in commuter rail ridership and also in Amtrak ridership in selected corridors.
RIDEWITHMEHENRY is the name for our almost monthly day of riding trains and transit in either the NYCity or Philadelphia areas including all commuter lines, Amtrak, subways, light rail and trolleys, bus and ferries when warranted. No fees, just let us know you want to join the ride and pay your fares. Ask to be on our email list or find us on FB as RIDEWITHMEHENRY (all caps) to get descriptions of each outing.
blue streak 1 My question is: Have any posters seen an uptick in traffic both AMTRAK and the various commuter rail lines?
Amtrak says that the number of riders on its trains increased 4.6% in January 2011 compared to January 2010. It attributes the increase to an improved economy, sustained high gasoline, prices, greater appeal of train travel, effective marketing campaigns, and the introduction of Wi-Fi on the Acela trains. Moreover, the number of riders has increased during the first quarter of FY11, with increases across the system.
Capital Metro reports a slight increase in the number of its riders during January 2011 over January 2010. It attributes the increase to higher gasoline prices, improve bus schedules, and all day operation of its commuter rail line coupled with a reduction in rail commuter fares.
As of right now, it is cheaper for me to buy an Amtrak ticket on line, drive to Saint Louis, take the train to Chicago, walk to OTC, and catch a train to Mount Prospect to see my parents than to drive my truck. Therefore, my next trip there should be on Amtrak and METRA (barring some kind of emergency).
If an increase in ridership hasn't been noticed, I believe it will be seen shortly. People are looking for any way to save money.
James
Sam1 blue streak 1: My question is: Have any posters seen an uptick in traffic both AMTRAK and the various commuter rail lines? Amtrak says that the number of riders on its trains increased 4.6% in January 2011 compared to January 2010. It attributes the increase to an improved economy, sustained high gasoline, prices, greater appeal of train travel, effective marketing campaigns, and the introduction of Wi-Fi on the Acela trains. Moreover, the number of riders has increased during the first quarter of FY11, with increases across the system. Capital Metro reports a slight increase in the number of its riders during January 2011 over January 2010. It attributes the increase to higher gasoline prices, improve bus schedules, and all day operation of its commuter rail line coupled with a reduction in rail commuter fares.
blue streak 1: My question is: Have any posters seen an uptick in traffic both AMTRAK and the various commuter rail lines?
Wait until the Feb. & March numbers come out, reflecting the huge price spike in the 2nd half of Feb. and continuing in March. Demand may exceed capacity.
C&NW, CA&E, MILW, CGW and IC fan
Decisions of whether to take a train or a car or even take a trip at all are decided "on the margin." That is when people make some calculation regarding their car expenses and the cost of a train ticket, make some decision of what their time and convenience are worth, increasing the price of gas while keeping the price of a train ticket the same will tip the decision towards the train.
As the train is such a small part of the total market at this time, even a small effect of getting some motorists to forgo a car and take the train may have a big effect on train ridership. That increase in ridership with the rise in gas prices is a way of running the experiment to see if offering financial incentive to ride the train (or financial disincentive to use one's car) would get people to consider the train. It doesn't necessarily mean, however, that the train is going to solve the energy crisis.
What you have determined is that 1) if the intercity route one wants to take is served not only by a train but an intercity train plus a commuter train at the 'remote end", 2) there is adequate parking at the "near end" of the journey, in availability, safety to one's person or property, and with respect to parking fees, 3) your "daily driver" is a light truck (such as a GM Sierra) rather than a small car (such as a Toyota Corolla), 4) either the Toll Road as you approach Mount Prospect is hopelessly congested at the time you want to travel and changing your departure time is inconvenient or you value your time that the getting to St Louis Amtrak station early enough that you don't miss your train, the walk from Union Station to Ogilvie, waiting for the next train to Mount Prospect, and then waiting for your parents to meet you or perhaps walking from the train station to the house, that the resulting time differential is a good trade for the extra cost of driving, and 5) that it is just you making the trip, not you and your friend, you and a spouse, you and your own family making that trick, which would probably tip the cost equation back to driving.
The other thing to consider is that the train ride is subsidized. If the fare is kept the same in the face of rising fuel costs, will this require more subsidy? For a modest increase in ridership, no, for a bigger increase in ridership, yes, because more trains will need to be purchased, more crews hired, maybe more tracks need to be put in place (double tracking intercity, triple track or more on the commuter corridors) to accomodate the traffic.
As these changes require additional subsidy input, are they a good social value for social expenditure? The fuel efficiency of these trains is not known apart from Amtrak system and commuter system aggregates, but there is probably a substantial fuel saving for a lone driver in a truck to switch to Amtrak. For two or more people in a more fuel efficient passenger car, maybe not.
Then the other thing I have noticed is that people value their time to the extent that I see people traveling on highways at high (above posted speed limit) rates of speed, even single drivers in pickup trucks. Illinois has split speed limits, especially on Interstates and the Toll Road. One option would be to drive at the truck speed limit and make the journey in the right-hand lane with the general flow of the truck traffic. It would take longer to get there, but the trip time would be competitive with the multi-modal journey you describe. Unless the cross wind is strong, following a large truck at a safe following distance (say 6 car lengths or 120 feet or a little bit more than 1 second at 60 MPH) gives added aerodynamic fuel savings, which are probably significant for a draggy pickup truck. Maybe that reduction in fuel use would tip the trip decision back to driving?
If GM "killed the electric car", what am I doing standing next to an EV-1, a half a block from the WSOR tracks?
We have had 40 years to address the problem of fossil fuel, yet we had our heads in the sand. Prices go up, then drop part way and we go back to the old ways. If Nicola Tesla were alive today, he would be ahead of his time. He wrote a letter to the New York Times warning us about dependence of fossil fuels in 1930. Many mindless corporations are only capable of year-to-year projections. However, our good trading partners in China and Korea are concerned with their lack of resourses and may solve the alternative energy problem. I keep waiting for an American wake-up call!
My question is more to the point. I would like for actual riders to give us a feeling of if there is an uptick in ridership. Also any riders if you have time ask the crew what they are observing. figures will be out but it is 6 weeks after a month is over before we can see them. However NNE riders and Va riderships numbers for FEB can be out now.
Anecdotal reports mean little, Blue Streak 1. Too many people are blase` or otherwise don't really understand what they see; it is unknown to them that the missing person has retired, changed jobs, or changed trains or why new passengers may in fact be there. The survey, count, has to be more official and the count has to be in fares rather than nose count (how many deadheads?) . Yeah, a crowded train or fewer seats would indicate a rise in ridership, but the more scientific counting will be more accurate and tell the real or whole story. But a crowded train car could also mean on less car on the train all of a sudden for some reason, the elimination of another train or a change of hours at a given place of employement or a change in schedule of a connecting transportation service.. So, while, yes, some will maybe notice more people around them at some time or another, the count at the fare box is what actually matters.
Mr. Milenkovic, you are good. You hypothesised my thinking very well. You even picked the make and model of truck. Since my driving route to the Chicago metropolitan area takes me past the exit for St. Louis' train station there isn't that much of a change in my route. Also, I try to run around sixty miles per hour (in the right lane) to save on fuel and I try to keep a three second following distance (per Missouri's Driver's Guide) or two second (Illinois' I believe) to keep from being delayed by an officer of the law. It is a given that this is depending on traffic conditions.
However, I am of the opinion that most people would not think through all the variables. They might look at the cost of the train tickets and parking, time in transit, and convenience. And, yes, traveling with a companion or a family would change things.
As an aside, I was suprised how many people were using the Lincoln Service and the Missouri River Runner four years ago. That was when I was at the Lou's station once a week. Maybe, I'll take a ride up tomorrow and see what the crowd looks like. Oh, wait, gas went up another nickel a gallon today. Maybe, I'll stay home.
I was looking for more of a report that certain trains had 1 or more additional cars on that train. The cars may be available especially since some were added during the thanksgiving holiday rush.
You are probably not going to find additional cars as most agencies don't have additional cars to add to trains. You will more likely find crowded conditions where there are standees. Of course, Amtrak sells seats by advance reservations and will "sell out" a train similar to airlines. But commuter lines will allow standees. If suche crowding conditions persist they will try to find cars from less crowded trains and move them among consists but that is not a thing they can do on a half hours notice.
Here is one example of AMTRAK adding cars to the Missouri trains.
http://www.newstribune.com/news/2011/mar/12/amtrak-adds-cars-weekend-routes/
Maybe some posters can find other examples?
blue streak 1 6. Discounting extra Piedmont service the best route improvement Short Dist was WASH - Newport news at 43% and Lynchburg at 36% . 7. Long distance improvements were large as Florida service was better this year all trains over 10%. Capital limited up 32%. 8. Builder and Crescent only LD with a decrease. SD - Cascades down 18%E. 9. The step child of all routes is the Hoosier State with just 1866 riders; a dismal 33 average. IMHO terible timekeeping (schedule 196 miles in 5 hours or 40 MPH average) and no interest in marketing + no lounge or meal service.
6. Discounting extra Piedmont service the best route improvement Short Dist was WASH - Newport news at 43% and Lynchburg at 36% .
7. Long distance improvements were large as Florida service was better this year all trains over 10%. Capital limited up 32%.
Hoosier State is good example of running trains instead of providing service. More trains, more service, more riders, more income, better chance at breaking even if not turning a profit! But, hey! This is America!
Here on New Jersey Transit, Boonton Line, the answer is; Not Much.
The last time we had a dramatic spike in gas prices I did notice an increase in ridership. This time things are different. Fares have increased due to the recession and the state budget. We have also lost a lot of jobs in New York City so fewer people are commuting.
Kevin
henry6 Hoosier State is good example of running trains instead of providing service. More trains, more service, more riders, more income, better chance at breaking even if not turning a profit! But, hey! This is America!
henry: Even if the Hoosier State were run 5-10 times each way at convenient times throughout the day, it would not be a "service" that many would choose to ride. Reason? Lack of competitive speed. CHI - IND = 186 mi. By car 3 - 3.5 hours. By Amtrak bus 4 hr, 15 min. By the Hoosier State 5 hr, 5 min. (and usually late) 36 mph. An average speed like that might have been competitive in the 1860's, but not 150 years later.
schlimm henry6: Hoosier State is good example of running trains instead of providing service. More trains, more service, more riders, more income, better chance at breaking even if not turning a profit! But, hey! This is America! henry: Even if the Hoosier State were run 5-10 times each way at convenient times throughout the day, it would not be a "service" that many would choose to ride. Reason? Lack of competitive speed. CHI - IND = 186 mi. By car 3 - 3.5 hours. By Amtrak bus 4 hr, 15 min. By the Hoosier State 5 hr, 5 min. (and usually late) 36 mph. An average speed like that might have been competitive in the 1860's, but not 150 years later.
henry6: Hoosier State is good example of running trains instead of providing service. More trains, more service, more riders, more income, better chance at breaking even if not turning a profit! But, hey! This is America!
Service is not just running a train or trains but also: provide convenience, price, time and timing, frequency...service means the whole thing not just one part! So, yeah, of course the timing/speed would have to be part of the package! Service via more trains could mean fewer stops per train, faster speeds overall, so many things not limited to providing a locomotive and a car.
The Hoosier makes 4 scheduled and one flag stop between Chicago and Indianapolis. Even if you reduced the number of stops to two, the 20 minutes of time saved is irrelevant. Service needs to be fast enough to be competitive with other modes, frequent enough to become a go-to alternative and convenient in terms of getting to and from the train. But without adequate speed, there is no service.
The current train is a total joke. In January 2011, ridership on the whole route was 2,332 or 130 people per day (runs four days per week; the other 3 days are the Cardinal). Customer satisfaction = 66%; On-time = 31%; Farebox recovery = 35%. The route is supposed to get "improvements" this year. There is a one-time expense for crew training. The net financial impact is a $2.1 million increase in operating loss. A waste of money because there is no improvement in speed. Here is a link:
http://www.amtrak.com/servlet/BlobServer?blobcol=urldata&blobtable=MungoBlobs&blobkey=id&blobwhere=1249223219553&blobheader=application%2Fpdf&blobheadername1=Content-disposition&blobheadervalue1=attachment;filename=Amtrak_1101monthly.pdf
It is stuff like this that makes one feel that Amtrak is not going to be the engine for improved passenger rail service.
It is proof that running a train is not running a service! And if it ain't gonna be Amtrak, what is it gonna be? A rose by any other name is still a rose! We've got to stop running trains and start providing service. Its a joke because Congress is not a good Board of Directors nor a good Investment Banking machine. They have a hell of a good president in there but they don 't let him run the railroad (Amtrak) like a railroad but as a government agency depending on political doles and deals rather than real railroad acumen.
You missed the point. Read the Amtrak proposal for improvements (linked) and you will see how ridiculous their process and thinking are. And don't blame Congress. In this case, they only appropriated funding. No, for many people who want to see real rail passenger services, it is apparent that Amtrak is just taking up space. I am beginning to think that only on the state and regional level will anything progressive occur. This is without even taking into account Amtrak's excessive labor costs for operations and maintenance.
Bureaucracies develop all kinds of paperwork, redundencies, stupidities, and processees. So you the government bureaucracy bureacrats developed the Amtrak bureaucracy and filled the posts with burearucrats. Its just like sourdough.
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