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[quote user="oltmannd"][quote user="Sam1"]While all U.S. sponsors of HSR cited a variety of public benefits that would flow from their projects, the extent to which benefits have been quantified and valued varied across projects. Ridership and revenue projects are often significantly (overly) optimistic.[/quote]I've see this criticism expressed often, but never other than an opinion. Since virtually no new intercity work has been done, how can the ridership estimate methods be vetted? I would like to see the details about this. Is the report on line somewhere? Would you have a link handy?[/quote] The GAO Report can be found on its website.  I don't remember how I found it; I think I was running a search one day when I came across it.  When I was overseeing work similar to that performed by the GAO, we looked at the customer and revenue estimates, amongst the other key financial elements, for new projects.  Every project (new power station, transmission line, long term contract) had to demonstrate its business viability. To be sure, it is a difficult task.  Effective project managers don't come up with just one scenario.  Rather, they develop three or four that are plausible and can be defended.  Model consistency, control, and comparability were amongs the elements that we evaluated.  We also tested the projections against similar activities.  If these characteristics were absent, we raised a red flag. If a project proponent went to a venture capitalist with a business plan that did not contain reasonable projects for customers and revenues, as well as the other key elements of a financial plany, she would get nowhere.
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