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Another train to be add between Pittsburgh and NYC?

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The Pennsylvania Feasibility Studies Report dated October 16, 2009, contains Study C, Harrisburg to Pittsburgh.  It addresses the issues of adding another train between Harrisburg and Pittsburgh, as well as a train between Harrisburg and Altoona.  The key findings are discussed below. The Norfolk Southern line from Harrisburg to Pittsburgh, which carries the Pennsylvanian, is mostly double track, with three tracks in the mountainous portions west of Altoona.  An average of 39.8 freight trains, totaling 106 annual million gross tons, run daily between Harrisburg and Pittsburgh.  The authors of the study believe that additional passenger trains would increase the operating challenges for the NS, but they could be handled.  Ridership on the Pennsylvania increased from approximately 184,000 in 2006 to 201,000 in 2008, which was a gain of 9.2 per cent.  On time performance improved from 71 per cent in 2006 to 87 per cent in 2008.  Ridership through July 2009 fell approximately 2.6 per cent, with ridership east of Harrisburg declining more so due to improved Keystone service. The Pennsylvanian requires 5 hours and 30 minutes to run from Harrisburg to Pittsburgh.  A coach ticket costs $36, on average, whilst a business class seat goes for $53.  The travel time between Harrisburg and Pittsburgh by car, which is the major competitive mode of travel between the two cities, as well as most cities along the line, via the Pennsylvania Turnpike, takes approximately 3 hours and 30 minutes.  The tolls are $13.45; the total cost would be a function of the type of vehicle and how it is operated. The study examined several scenarios for improved service.  The first envisions extending Keystone train 647, with a New York departure of 2:11 p.m. and a Pittsburgh arrival of 11:09 p.m.  Its eastbound counterpart would leave Pittsburgh at 1:00 p.m. and arrive in New York at 10:30 p.m.  It would replace Keystone train 618.  A second scenario considers a Harrisburg to Altoona train, thereby offering eastbound passengers morning arrivals in Harrisburg, Philadelphia, and New York, although it would have to leave Altoona pretty early to get to New York by 11:59 a.m.  This scenario would result in three trains a day between Altoona and New York, with two of them running between Pittsburgh and New York. Incremental ridership projections are 144,400 for the first scenario, plus 36,000 for the second scenario, for a total increase of 180,400.  Incremental ticket revenues are projected to be $6.7 million for the first scenario, plus $1.2 million for the second, bringing the total incremental revenue to $7.9 million.  The Altoona service includes a Thruway bus to State College, which is the home of Pennsylvania State University.  It would generate $56,000 and 6,000 riders.  The figures are annual estimates. The estimated operating costs for both services would be $16.7 million, thereby resulting in an operating loss of approximately $8.8 million, although the study shows the loss at $8.7 million, due to a rounding error.   Another $1.5 million would be required for start-up training.  The equipment capital costs are estimated to be $88 million for a second Pennsylvanian and $40 million for the Altoona service.  In addition, the Norfolk Southern would need to make capital improvements, according to a 2005 study that it had performed, to handle additional passenger trains.  The study estimated that the capital improvements would cost $120 million, but its numbers were based on four passenger trains as well as increased freight traffic.  This study would have to be updated. Implementation of the enhancements discussed in the study would require the support of the Pennsylvania legislature, which would have to fund in whole or part the incremental services.  Given the budgetary constraints faced by Pennsylvania, the legislature is unlikely to provide the monies to enhance passenger train service between Harrisburg, Altoona, and Pittsburgh.  Amtrak cannot go it alone. As an aside, the authors of the study recommended that PDOT consider Thruway bus service between Harrisburg and State College, as well as Altoona and State College, ala the services in California.
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