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[quote user="oltmannd"] [quote user="Sam1"] I am, however, open to new evidence.  Please direct me to the authoritative references you claim but have not cited for the independently audited studies showing that high speed rail, as proposed, will cover its operating costs and contribute something to the capital investment.  By independent audit I mean the numbers have been audited by a large, independent accounting firm, e.g. PricewaterhouseCoopers, KPMG, Deloitte, etc. that does not have a stake in the outcome. Most perspectives are a function of opinions.  Whether an investment in high speed rail is a good idea or a bad idea; whether it will cover its costs or won't, is an opinion. Opinions that are backed-up with verifiable, independently audit data carry more weight with me than those that lack the support.   [/quote] The midwest governors that hired contractors to do the study of the midwest corridors have a direct stake in the outcome how?  Similarly, the contractor's stake in the outcome? Accounting firms don't still look after their buddies in their recently spun-off (by gov't mandate) consulting branches? I'm also not sure exactly how one would audit a ridership model.  The process of selecting a model?  The input data?  The arithmetic?  [/quote] They would audit the assumptions, estimates, formulas, engineering design, etc. Yes, they have engineers on staff to look at the designs.  They would look hard at the controls associated with the predictions for ridership, revenues, costs, etc.    Most importantly, they would look at the controls associated with the predictors to verify that the planners and promoters did not change the inputs to produce the desired outcomes. The auditors, for example, would look hard at the claim that it will cost an average of $55 to go from San Francisco to LAX.  They would be suspicious of this number.  They know that a range of probabilities is more realistic than a hard number in predicting fares, revenues, costs, etc.    Every major project in my employer's operations was audited independently to verify that it had a high probability of achieving what the sponsors said it would achieve.  In many instances we found that they have sugar coated the projections.  Once people have invested a lot of time and interest in a project, they tend to put on rose colored glasses about it.  They assume the best outcomes rather than negative or more realistic outcomes.  Auditors lift these problems up to management. The audit function of the big accounting firms is independent of the consulting function.  Since the Enron debacle, auditors have been constrained significantly in what they can discuss with employees in the consulting side of the business.  The American Society of Certified Public Accountants, which has a robust code of ethics, comes down very hard on firms that violate the separation of auditing and consulting.
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