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[quote user="oltmannd"] [quote user="Sam1"]   The promoters of high speed rail put the best spin on their numbers.  I would not bet the farm that the projects will cover their operating costs.  I would like to see an independent audit of the projections, i.e. an audit conducted by one of the big four accounting firms, with the fees paid by an independent agency. One of the promoters of the California High Speed Rail claims that a ticket from LAX to SFO will go for $55.  Really!  Amtrak cannot cover its total NEC costs with Acela fares of $155 between Washington and New York.  And its investment is less than 25 per cent of the announced investment in the California HSR project.  I would love to see the audited numbers for the California projections. Having spent more than 20 years directing audits of just these sorts of projects, I am amply familiar with how people spin the numbers, most of which are based on estimates, to make their project sound viable.   [/quote] This is not a promoter's report. It is one done for the various state DOTs by expert consultants.  These generally use fairly standard ridership models.  Many times, these same models underestimate commuter and light rail traffic  (see Charlotte, Albequerque and lately Phoenix). This particular study used Amtrak's highly inefficient current costs to figure train operation costs, but did figure that some newer ROW maintenance methods into that part of the cost. Of course, there is a lot of uncertainty with any new venture with long lead times.  It is particularly hard to calibrate ridership models for new corridors because there haven't been any implemented anywhere!  Sensitivity to trip times, frequency and price are very well known, however. (I'm surprised you didn't take the chance to show this an example of regionalism that's working.  Look at how many states pitched in to do the study....)<IMG alt=Smile src="http://cs.trains.com/trccs/emoticons/icon_smile.gif"> [/quote] The $55 fare quote was made by the head of the California High Speed Rail Project on NPR.  He is a retired California high court judge.  I'd call him a promoter. In most cases consultants are paid by the client.  They have a nasty habit of putting a more favorable spin on the outcomes than an independent auditor paid by an overseer without any stake in the outcome.  This is especially true if they see some additional business.  I spent more than 25 years dealing with consultants.  They seldom lie.  But they are quick to determine the sponsor's objectives, and they tend to put together the best scenarios to support them.   People who have a viable commercial idea (vision) don't need to run to the government for funding. Venture capitalists will provide all the money required.  Equally important, promoters of a good deal have no problem with independent audits.   Those who run to the government for funding know that their vision will never fly in the market place, and they are not keen for an independent audit of their financial estimates. The California HSR project appears to be a good example of regionalism, but it will depend on how much money they get from the federal government.  If they limit their federal take to 20 per cent or less, I would think that it is a good regional project.  If they want 80 per cent of the funding to come from the federal government, it is not a good regional project.
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