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Stimulus and high speed rail?
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<P mce_keep="true">The $66 fare is for April 15, 2009. It is an all inclusive fare offered by United, American, Virgin America, and Alaska Airways as quoted on Travelocity. U.S. Airways, hardly one of the nation's low cost carriers, wants $86 whilst Delta Airlines wants $97. If you only checked the U.S. Airways and Southwest sites, your search was not very robust. Moreover, quoting fares for travel the next day is over the top. Most people plan further ahead than the next day. </P> <P mce_keep="true">The base fare is $49, with the fees and taxes that you mentioned bringing it up to $66. It is designed to match Southwest Airlines Wanna Get Away fare. It too is $66 when the fees and taxes are added. </P> <P mce_keep="true">If a passenger checks a bag on any of the carriers mentioned above, except for Southwest, she may be charged a bag fee. However, most business passengers, as well as many non-business travelers, unless they plan to spend more than three or four days at their end point, which would be unusual, except for the non-business travelers, are carrying their bags on the airplane. No checked bag fee! </P> <P mce_keep="true">Less than 10 per cent of domestic passengers fly first class or business class. Therefore, using first and business class fares to compare the cost of flying to the cost of a train is unrealistic. Moreover, according to the ATA, more than 70 per cent of domestic airline passengers, including those traveling on business, buy a discount ticket, which in most though not all cases means that they bought it at least 14 days in advance. Only a minority of passengers, usually business people or people traveling on an emergency, pay the walk up fare. Most people plan their travel in advance.</P> <P mce_keep="true">April 15<SUP>th</SUP> is a bit far in advance. So let's take a look at a mid-week fare approximately two weeks in advance. This is a realistic planning time frame for most business people. The Southwest fares are the same for March 10<SUP>th</SUP>, i.e. $49 Wanna Get Away, $134 Anytime, and $149 Business Select. You can add about $17 to these fares to cover the taxes and fees. The Wanna Get Away fare is available to anyone. Southwest does not charge a checked bag fee. United, American, Virgin America, and Alaska Airways are also quoting the same fares for March 10<SUP>th</SUP>.</P> <P mce_keep="true">Even with the Business Select fare, a passenger on Southwest would pay $152.40 less than the pro-forma fare on the high speed train. Not a good deal! Also, please remember that the pro-forma fare is using Amtrak's Acela costs, which cover less than 50 per cent of the capital costs of the NEC. How a $40 billion dollar railroad hopes to cover its operating expenses and contribute 48 per cent to the capital costs escapes me. Well, actually, it doesn't. They don't plan to do so. They plan to lay it off on the backs of the taxpayers irrespective of whether they use it or can use it. </P> <P mce_keep="true">Clearly, there is a penalty for people who travel at the last minute. The airlines, as well as Amtrak, charge more for walk-up fares than those bought in advance. It is a function of price points generated by the seat mile yield models. Presumably the California High Speed Train system will use the same model, since it is used by practically every passenger transport system in the world.</P> <P mce_keep="true">Most Americans are willing to put up with the the airport security procedures for the convenience, safety, and economy of air travel. Last year approximately 653 million domestic passengers flew on America's domestic airlines. Most of them probably did not like the security screening, but obviously they put up with it. </P> <P mce_keep="true">Most airlines advise their domestic passengers to be at the airport at least an hour in advance of their departure to check-in and clear security. This adds to the travel time. </P> <P mce_keep="true">Let's stipulate that California's high speed train system will not have a security clearance procedure, which is problematic. Most passengers, I suspect, will arrive about 30 minutes before train time. So the incremental time to fly, depending on the airport as well as the date and the time of travel, is not an hour but rather 30 minutes.</P> <P mce_keep="true">Building a $40 billion rail system for a few people who are afraid to fly is a bit over the top. Of course, I would not have a problem with it if they funded it out of their pockets as opposed to the taxpayer's pockets. </P>
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