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MapQuest says that it is 46.35 miles from Austin and 60.13 miles from Round Rock to Luling.  This is nearly a third of the average driving distance from Austin/Round Rock to Houston.  Most Texans, at least the ones I know, would stay in their car as opposed to driving more than 45 miles to catch a train.Studies have shown that once people are in their car, unless they are flying long distances, they tend to stay in it unless traffic conditions significantly impede driving.  Of course, with gasoline averaging more than $4 a gallon, economics will play a bigger part in the decision than when it was $2 a gallon.The train would have to be quick enough to beat driving, which Map Quest estimates at just over three hours.  It would also have to be quick enough to beat the bus.  Greyhound shows 3 hours and 15 minutes for its quickest schedule between Houston and the Alamo City.  And it would need to be quick enough to compete within a window with the airlines.  Southwest requires 50 minutes to fly between Houston and San Antonio.  It would need to be less than three hours; whether it needed to be 2.5 hours is problematic.  The Map Quest estimate is only doable if one arrives in either city outside of the morning and evening rush hours.  It is probably a stretch for someone departing or arriving during rush hour.  Depending on where one is going, it could add 15 to 30 minutes to the travel time.Airline passengers need to add an hour at the departure point to comfortably clear security and 15 minutes upon arrival to get any check luggage.  Thus, they are looking at slightly more than two hours to fly.  Driving time to the airport vs. the train station is part of the equation, but it is difficult to weigh.  It depends on each passenger's situation.  If a potential traveler is near a rail line station and is going downtown or to an address near a suburban stop, the train could beat flying.  But if he is closer to the airport and is going to an address near the airport in the arrival city, flying could win hands down.  Clearly, to be competitive, as I said, the tracks, signals, and equipment would have to be upgraded significantly to make passenger rail competitive between Houston and San Antonio or any rail corridor in Texas. In addition, the station facilities would have to be upgraded significantly.  Middle class people, especially business travelers, are not going to settle for a dimly lighted station with the option of buying a three day old pastry from a vending machine and a sign in the parking lot advising them not to leave their vehicle overnight, which pretty much describes the Austin station.    Moreover, if I were in charge of it, I would not do it until the train could cover all of its variable operating expenses and half of the annual depreciation.  In addition, I would only do it in a private enterprise/government partnership, unless a miracle happened, and all forms of transport were required to cover their true costs at the pump or ticket counter.  Then I would insist on using only private money. Moreover, congestion has to get a lot worse than it is now before people will look to trains as a viable alternative to other surface transport options or flying.  One indication that we are not there is the mean commute time in Texas vs. the U.S.  It is nearly the same at approximately 25 minutes.  But we may be there in 2030.  The population of Texas was 23.5 million at the end of 2006.  It is projected to be nearly 34 million by 2030.  Nearly 70 per cent of the growth is expected to occur in North Texas, along the Fort Worth to San Antonio Corridor, and in the Houston/Galveston area.
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