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Why US (Passenger) Trains Aren't Taking Off

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People are not flocking to passenger trains for a variety of reasons.  Clearly, cost is a factor.  One side of a multi-sided coin is the cost to improve the system to make it an attractive alternative to driving or flying.  Another side is the real cost of gasoline.  And a third is the ability of the country to pay for a better rail system.Until the real cost of congestion, as opposed to the fancied costs argued by passenger train advocates, equals the cost of improving the system or building new systems, the economic justification for doing either is not there.  Economic justification can be calculated using hard and soft dollars.  In addition, until the real cost of motor fuels gets a lot higher than they are now, most people in most areas of the country will choose to drive as opposed to getting on a train or any other form of public transport.  According to the Energy Information Administration, the cost of a gallon of gasoline in 1981, when adjusted for inflation, was equal to $3.29 in today's dollars.  Factor in gains in average fuel efficiency -- 21 mpg today compared with 15 mpg to 16 mpg in 1981 -- and we're spending less on gasoline today: less than 3% of gross domestic product compared with 4.6% in 1981.At a national average of nearly $3.50 per gallon, the real cost of gasoline has surpassed the 1981 high.  But not by nearly as much as many people think.  And even at $3.50 per gallon, it consumes considerably less than 4.6% of the gross domestic product.  It appears that we are a long way from justifying the cost of expanded or new passenger rail systems based on the cost of gasoline.  It comes back to what I have said all along.  Passenger rail may be justified where highway and air congestion is great.  A relief valve for highway congestion was the driver for selling the Dallas Area Rapid Transit referendum to the voters.  I worked on the campaign.  So I have a little insight about how it was done.  It was also the driver for selling the Houston light rail project, and the Austin commuter rail project, which is schedule to initiate service late this year.
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