https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-10-07/american-railroads-are-already-in-recession-with-no-end-in-sight
Sorry, the link doesn't work. The gist is the decline in carloadings is worsening, much of it a result of our trade wars.
I got to the link and it worked for a time, but then wanted me to register. It does seem that the railroads are now kind of a "canary in the coal mine" for something like a serious economic downturn. Unless this flips back for the good soon, we might be in for a ride. I have felt that this drawn out process of ratcheting up the tariffs and the threats may be fueling a strong reaction that will be delayed like a monster tsunami that follows a mild earthquake.
One point I saw in the article was that the talk and threats of tariffs caused U.S. distributors to stock way up on inventory to beat the higher prices sure to accompany the tariffs. So now, they are way overstocked and are selling that expanded inventory before buying any new inventory. So, for the time being, shipping is way down due to the loss of traffic of goods subject to the tariffs. But don't worry. Peter Navarro assures us nothing bad will happen to us. And they have dialed down the threats for a while just to make sure we have a nice Christmas.
The link sent me to 'page not found'. Going to their home page, I found the article. I was going to post that link, but it was the exact same one as the original.
What I found interesting, is that car loadings were always felt to be a barometer of the economy. That article seems to sweep that notion aside. With their obsession with lowering the Operating Ratio and cutting this and eliminating that, the class ones are going to make the freight business about as relevant as passenger trains.
Jeff
Just like our chaotic foreign policy, it's a chaotic economic policy based on lunatic theories and tweets. And uncertainties are bad in both arenas.
Several of my customers purchased one quarter's worth of inventory in only one month to beat the tariff deadlines.... that means of course, we were quiet not the remaining two months of the quarter, but also the subsequent period afterwards. Then everyone is scratching their heads... "but we were so busy for a month there, what happened?"
In one location on a certain railroad local management had been working with a couple of cereal manufacturers to load containers there. Volume was said to have been 20000 to 30000 containers per year. The marketing department pulled the plug on this and, in effect, told the local managment to mind their own business. This from a company that has on their employee website a link to let them know of any business that the railroad could pursue.
Someone the other day said they've passed up over $100 million worth of business. Because it was business in $5 to $10 million increments. I think if they had a corporate softball team (maybe they do) they would probably only count the home runs.
In a word, stupid.
jeffhergertIn one location on a certain railroad local management had been working with a couple of cereal manufacturers to load containers there. Volume was said to have been 20000 to 30000 containers per year. The marketing department pulled the plug on this and, in effect, told the local managment to mind their own business. This from a company that has on their employee website a link to let them know of any business that the railroad could pursue. Someone the other day said they've passed up over $100 million worth of business. Because it was business in $5 to $10 million increments. I think if they had a corporate softball team (maybe they do) they would probably only count the home runs. Jeff
When I was still working - some local officials prospected some business and got shut down by sales and marketing - and this was before the PSR attack.
Never too old to have a happy childhood!
A couple observations. One, Trump is giving us an object lesson in how the traditional Democrat desire for high tariffs turns out. It's both humorous and sad to watch Democrat politicians run around screaming about free trade being hurt by tariffs, when they've spent their careers hectoring everyone about the horrors of unfettered international capitalism. Second, a large reason why he is going after China is because they have engaged in things like corporate espionage and demanding that they get to know every aspect of anything that is made there -- and our idiot business leaders have gone along with it because a) they wanted to keep production costs low and b) they see China as a huge market (which it is -- for Chinese businesses). Third, the alternative to Trump is to elect one of the 20 or so socialists trying to pass themselves off as the intellectual and fiscal descendants of JFK. The only thing Fauxcahontas and Jack Kennedy have in common is they were elected to the Senate as Massachusetts Democrats, and the other 19 are in the same canoe, er boat as the condescending schoolmarm with the non-American Indian cheekbones.
Uncle_Bob A couple observations. One, Trump is giving us an object lesson in how the traditional Democrat desire for high tariffs turns out. It's both humorous and sad to watch Democrat politicians run around screaming about free trade being hurt by tariffs, when they've spent their careers hectoring everyone about the horrors of unfettered international capitalism. Second, a large reason why he is going after China is because they have engaged in things like corporate espionage and demanding that they get to know every aspect of anything that is made there -- and our idiot business leaders have gone along with it because a) they wanted to keep production costs low and b) they see China as a huge market (which it is -- for Chinese businesses). Third, the alternative to Trump is to elect one of the 20 or so socialists trying to pass themselves off as the intellectual and fiscal descendants of JFK. The only thing Fauxcahontas and Jack Kennedy have in common is they were elected to the Senate as Massachusetts Democrats, and the other 19 are in the same canoe, er boat as the condescending schoolmarm with the non-American Indian cheekbones.
Trump is obsessed with largely irrelevant metrics like trade deficits, to the exclusion of everything else. The likelihood that he will come out of this having succeeded in curbing intellectual property theft and state-owned capitalism in China is virtually nil. The more likely result is an agreement to lower tariffs marginally on selected goods without touching the aforementioned issues, which Trump will then attempt to pass off as a historic win.
I agree that the alternatives to Trump aren’t great, but at this point, I’ll take anyone who isn’t a narcissistic, thin-skinned igoramus who governs by Tweet.
If any of the the 20 commie clowns gets in to the White House, the RRs would be bankrupt and/or nationalized within a few years
Post deleted.
Let's just compare the two platforms of the parties based on their candidate's that are running out there shall we. On the donkey side of things we have the open borders massive increases in taxes regulations gun grabbing jam everything down your throat and your going to like it or else along with paying for crimes that not one of us was alive for whenever they occurred in reperatations to certain groups of people.
On the other side of the fence. Someone that's fighting to get American jobs back cutting regulations so our businesses can compete in the global market is taking on the toughest issues like border security unfair Trade practices of nations oh BTW has gotten Apple computer to produce their new Macintosh in the USA. He also in the last 3 years has by cutting regulations created more jobs than there are unemployed lowest minority rates in history lowest rates for women in history highest real wage growth since 92. Yet all we here on the media is he's done a terrible job. Just think about that. Which way would you vote if the media was covering him the way they covered the last president before him. You know the one that could do nothing wrong.
I need to set up a Kool-aid stand in here.
The opinions expressed here represent my own and not those of my employer, any other railroad, company, or person.
zugmann I need to set up a Kool-aid stand in here.
I'd like to see one selling popcorn and lemonade!
Just a brief observation.. Had a brief conversation with a local BNSF Roadmaster at the 7/11... He mentioned that their 'count' between Wellington and Mulvane is still in the 50/60 trains a day; I guess they haven't gotten "The Memo" out here..
samfp1943 zugmann I need to set up a Kool-aid stand in here. I'd like to see one selling popcorn and lemonade! Just a brief observation.. Had a brief conversation with a local BNSF Roadmaster at the 7/11... He mentioned that their 'count' between Wellington and Mulvane is still in the 50/60 trains a day; I guess they haven't gotten "The Memo" out here..
Screw Kool-Aid, lemonade and pop-corn, we are adults - BBQ and adult beverages - mass quantities!
Shadow the Cats owner Let's just compare the two platforms of the parties based on their candidate's that are running out there shall we. On the donkey side of things we have the open borders massive increases in taxes regulations gun grabbing jam everything down your throat and your going to like it or else along with paying for crimes that not one of us was alive for whenever they occurred in reperatations to certain groups of people. On the other side of the fence. Someone that's fighting to get American jobs back cutting regulations so our businesses can compete in the global market is taking on the toughest issues like border security unfair Trade practices of nations oh BTW has gotten Apple computer to produce their new Macintosh in the USA. He also in the last 3 years has by cutting regulations created more jobs than there are unemployed lowest minority rates in history lowest rates for women in history highest real wage growth since 92. Yet all we here on the media is he's done a terrible job. Just think about that. Which way would you vote if the media was covering him the way they covered the last president before him. You know the one that could do nothing wrong.
The foregoing is a nearly perfect encapsulation of the worldview of the 40% of our country that’s going to vote for Trump come hell or high water. Unfortunately, virtually none of it is true.
Shadow the Cats owner along with paying for crimes that not one of us was alive for whenever they occurred in reperatations to certain groups of people.
Russell
Shadow the Cats ownerWhich way would you vote if the media was covering him the way they covered the last president before him. You know the one that could do nothing wrong.
Your blatant and long political posts do not belong on here.
BaltACD samfp1943 zugmann I need to set up a Kool-aid stand in here. I'd like to see one selling popcorn and lemonade! Just a brief observation.. Had a brief conversation with a local BNSF Roadmaster at the 7/11... He mentioned that their 'count' between Wellington and Mulvane is still in the 50/60 trains a day; I guess they haven't gotten "The Memo" out here.. Screw Kool-Aid, lemonade and pop-corn, we are adults - BBQ and adult beverages - mass quantities!
Screw Kool-Aid, lemonade and pop-corn, we are adults -
BBQ and adult beverages - mass quantities!
Adult Beverages!!!
I refer back to that "...Long time ago, in that galaxy, Far, Far, in the rear-view mirror..." About 30+ years back, Mr. Doctor advised me against my favs {Jack Black and Branch water}, and his food advice was equally un-settling."...If it tastes good; spit it out! It won't be good for you..."
Some of the realities of gettin' old....
charlie hebdo Your blatant and long political posts do not belong on here.
Why because I don't take everything the Media feeds us like a Sheep like the want us to. I refuse to believe what they are feeding us. Anyone think they are telling us the truth after the crap ABC did with their Syria report trying to pass off a gun range free fire event from Kentucky as an attack. Just watch them they all parrot the same talking points are trying to push the same candidate down our throats refuse to allow anyone that has a different viewpoint on their shows.
Yes I am a stauch conservative and get a lot of heat for it even from my own family. However I can tell the difference between a Media that kisses the rear end of one party and does nothing but tries to destroy the other. Sorry but I will continue to call out bias as I see it in all forms of the media at that inculdes here.
Now to get this thread back on topic the reason why freight is slumping is 2 fold. First the Railroads driving off smaller shippers via PSR aka saying sorry unless your willing to do 100 million a year in revenue with us we do not want your business anymore along with cutting IM service lanes and that left more lanes for trucks to cover. 2nd the trade war and the continuing transfer of coal energy to gas power in the energy sectors. Why keep hauling coal over 1000 miles when you can have it delivered to the plant in a pipeline right to your burners. On the Trade war look for a major breakthrough in the winter. Why am I say then simple China can not make it thru the winter with their current supplies of food stocked up. They have way to many people to feed and not enough stored up to do it. These figures are coming from friends inside China proper. They lost 60% of their soybeans 50% of their rice 70% of their wheat to the Army worm. Now on the Meat side they lost 60% of their entire pork population and 90% of the breeding sows. Then on the Poultry side they lost 50% of all their chickens. They are facing a severe food shortage this winter and they already buy 50% of all the exported crops worldwide. They are bent over the barrel and Xi is going to either have to give in or from what I have heard he is going to be faced with open revolt by the people that are already seeing their food being rationed.
Looks around.
STill a trains forum?
I mean, should I start discussing anime on here? Can't be any worse than this political crap.
zugmannI mean, should I start discussing anime on here? Can't be any worse than this political crap.
Thank you.
I for one would prefer to learn about anime. Opinions would count for more there than they seem to be doing recently here. Root beer might be another potentially interesting topic.
I notice that, quietly, Schmidt's 'sticky' has acquired bold-face bullet points. As here, from the 'rules' interpretation of the Kalmbach TOS:
- No political discussions or signature messages. We know, railroads are sometimes affected by politics. However, we’ve found that political discussions almost always turn into arguments. We have a common thread of being interested in railroads. Don’t let that common bond be destroyed by political differences. - No inherently divisive discussions or signature messages. Hot-button topics like guns, abortion, religion, immigration, and crime aren't welcome, for the same reasons as political discussions and signatures. We all have our own views, and this isn’t the place to share them. Remember, this is a railroading forum.
- No inherently divisive discussions or signature messages. Hot-button topics like guns, abortion, religion, immigration, and crime aren't welcome, for the same reasons as political discussions and signatures. We all have our own views, and this isn’t the place to share them. Remember, this is a railroading forum.
Your comment is entirely appropriate!
I went back to my comment from yesterday and deleted it. Perhaps others might choose to do the same and save the moderator some time.
Shadow the Cats owner charlie hebdo Your blatant and long political posts do not belong on here. Why because I don't take everything the Media feeds us like a Sheep like the want us to. I refuse to believe what they are feeding us. Anyone think they are telling us the truth after the crap ABC did with their Syria report trying to pass off a gun range free fire event from Kentucky as an attack. Just watch them they all parrot the same talking points are trying to push the same candidate down our throats refuse to allow anyone that has a different viewpoint on their shows. Yes I am a stauch conservative and get a lot of heat for it even from my own family. However I can tell the difference between a Media that kisses the rear end of one party and does nothing but tries to destroy the other. Sorry but I will continue to call out bias as I see it in all forms of the media at that inculdes here. Now to get this thread back on topic the reason why freight is slumping is 2 fold. First the Railroads driving off smaller shippers via PSR aka saying sorry unless your willing to do 100 million a year in revenue with us we do not want your business anymore along with cutting IM service lanes and that left more lanes for trucks to cover. 2nd the trade war and the continuing transfer of coal energy to gas power in the energy sectors. Why keep hauling coal over 1000 miles when you can have it delivered to the plant in a pipeline right to your burners. On the Trade war look for a major breakthrough in the winter. Why am I say then simple China can not make it thru the winter with their current supplies of food stocked up. They have way to many people to feed and not enough stored up to do it. These figures are coming from friends inside China proper. They lost 60% of their soybeans 50% of their rice 70% of their wheat to the Army worm. Now on the Meat side they lost 60% of their entire pork population and 90% of the breeding sows. Then on the Poultry side they lost 50% of all their chickens. They are facing a severe food shortage this winter and they already buy 50% of all the exported crops worldwide. They are bent over the barrel and Xi is going to either have to give in or from what I have heard he is going to be faced with open revolt by the people that are already seeing their food being rationed.
I think most of us members, even the true conservatives, have had enough of your extremist political rants. Read the rules which Overmod posted and adhere to them.
OvermodI for one would prefer to learn about anime.
It's a rabbit hole. But it lead me to manga, which I enjoy more, actually.
Overmod zugmann I mean, should I start discussing anime on here? Can't be any worse than this political crap. Thank you. I for one would prefer to learn about anime. Opinions would count for more there than they seem to be doing recently here. Root beer might be another potentially interesting topic. I notice that, quietly, Schmidt's 'sticky' has acquired bold-face bullet points. As here, from the 'rules' interpretation of the Kalmbach TOS: - No political discussions or signature messages. We know, railroads are sometimes affected by politics. However, we’ve found that political discussions almost always turn into arguments. We have a common thread of being interested in railroads. Don’t let that common bond be destroyed by political differences. - No inherently divisive discussions or signature messages. Hot-button topics like guns, abortion, religion, immigration, and crime aren't welcome, for the same reasons as political discussions and signatures. We all have our own views, and this isn’t the place to share them. Remember, this is a railroading forum.
zugmann I mean, should I start discussing anime on here? Can't be any worse than this political crap.
And then there is also this one in bold type:
- Please keep discussions on topic (that is, railroad-related).
Euclid- Please keep discussions on topic (that is, railroad-related).
The Galaxy Railways is an anime about space railraods. Featured a big boy engine that was well-drawn. I couldn't get into it.
zugmann Euclid - Please keep discussions on topic (that is, railroad-related). The Galaxy Railways is an anime about space railraods. Featured a big boy engine that was well-drawn. I couldn't get into it.
Euclid - Please keep discussions on topic (that is, railroad-related).
Okay. I was not intending to focus on discussing anime as being an off topic subject. I just left it in Overmod's quote to keep the context of what he was saying. My comment is directed to the general complete disregard for the rule by many, inlcluding the moderators. I know everybody loves the new forum Living Room format. Maybe Kalmbach just forgot to take the rule down.
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