Overmod ...Aside from the basic silliness of responding to ‘I don’t know if it’s frozen or unfrozen’ with ‘so which is it?’ ... c’mon, Murphy, you know better ...
...Aside from the basic silliness of responding to ‘I don’t know if it’s frozen or unfrozen’ with ‘so which is it?’ ... c’mon, Murphy, you know better ...
Thanks to Chris / CopCarSS for my avatar.
Overmod Euclid said: I would not even conclude that capital inputs are not currently underway. Overmod said: Double negatives used to be deprecated in standard written English, for reason including the one illustrated here. I know what you meant, but couldn’t you phrase it closer to what you meant?
Euclid said: I would not even conclude that capital inputs are not currently underway.
Overmod said:
Double negatives used to be deprecated in standard written English, for reason including the one illustrated here. I know what you meant, but couldn’t you phrase it closer to what you meant?
How about this:
“I would not even conclude that capital inputs are frozen.”
Overmod Euclid said: "I would not even conclude that capital inputs are not currently underway." And why you think you could, or even should, be ‘concluding’ anything, after it’s already established you don’t even know what’s actually going on in CSX management,...
Euclid said:
"I would not even conclude that capital inputs are not currently underway."
And why you think you could, or even should, be ‘concluding’ anything, after it’s already established you don’t even know what’s actually going on in CSX management,...
I am referring to the prospect of my concluding that Don's conclusion is correct based on what he has said here to justify it. When I said, "I would not even conclude that capital inputs are not currently underway," I meant that I don't think Don has made the case that they are not currently underway. I am referring the case he made by saying this in his first post:
"Absent any new initiatives to get things moving, i.e. more locomotives, crews etc., this is what CSX under EHH will look like."
EuclidHow about this: “I would not even conclude that capital inputs are frozen.
Thing is, that doesn’t express what you meant either; it IS a legitimate double negative in expression in the sense we don’t know there is NOT some capital spending coming in the next months or even weeks. Right? Now all we need to do is choose the grammar that expresses that sense correctly — but only incidentally does the sense reflect a ‘frozen’ process in the sense we were using.
As Porta said in a different context (it suffers in translation a bit) ‘You don’t know what you don’t know ‘til you know it’. Certainly we won’t know about capex or other major expenditures until we hear or read about them ... but it does seem unlikely at this point they have anything particularly valuable to their ‘precision scheduled railroading’ that applies to customer satisfaction that they’d see as a funding priority. That means in part that ‘the onus rests on the presenter’ to indicate what a likely form of capital spending might be, and although as you point out we might well be surprised, there is a great deal of both presumptive evidence and ‘management intent’ the other way as far as any particularly significant capital expansion in the near term would be concerned...
Overmod Euclid How about this: “I would not even conclude that capital inputs are frozen." Thing is, that doesn’t express what you meant either; it IS a legitimate double negative in expression in the sense we don’t know there is NOT some capital spending coming in the next months or even weeks. Right? Now all we need to do is choose the grammar that expresses that sense correctly — but only incidentally does the sense reflect a ‘frozen’ process in the sense we were using.
Euclid How about this: “I would not even conclude that capital inputs are frozen."
I think it says exactly what I mean, either as reconstructed above or with my orginal double negative construction. What I said is an agnostic expression that I simply do not know whether the inputs are frozen or not. If I were to conclude that they are frozen, or are not frozen, that would be a positive assertion of knowing because that is what a conclusion is. But I have no conclusion. That is why I began my sentence with, "I would not even conclude..."
It reflects my position of not knowing one way or the other. In that case, it is accurate to pick one of the two alternatives and say I don't know if it exists. It might or might not. Of the two choices, I am far more incline to believe that the process is not frozen, but still, I can't say for sure. So I say I think it is not frozen.
It is only Don who has put forth a positive assertion that the process IS frozen.
Maybe this is more in response to your point:
When I said “I would not even conclude that capital inputs are frozen," this does not mean that I do conclude that capital inputs are unfrozen. It does not go that far as to mean the opposite.
Double negatives or not no double negatives, I'm having a hard time keeping up.From the post above:
EuclidI think it says exactly what I mean, either as reconstructed above or with my orginal double negative construction. What I said is an agnostic expression that I simply do not know whether the inputs are frozen or not.
From an earlier post:
Euclid I don’t think the process is frozen...
oltmannd Famous Earl Weaver quote to umpire who he thought was blowing balls and strikes calls. Just checked CSX numbers (from STB web site). Compared to a month ago, train speed down 0.3 mph. Dwell flat. Cars on Line up 2000. What does this mean? The numbers are the "voice of the process". That the numbers have been virtually flat for about two months now means that what you see is what you get. They are no better than a year ago, pre-EHH. Absent any new initiatives to get things moving, i.e. more locomotives, crews etc., this is what CSX under EHH will look like. This is even less than I thought he could do, and I wasn't optomistic.
Famous Earl Weaver quote to umpire who he thought was blowing balls and strikes calls.
Just checked CSX numbers (from STB web site). Compared to a month ago, train speed down 0.3 mph. Dwell flat. Cars on Line up 2000.
What does this mean? The numbers are the "voice of the process". That the numbers have been virtually flat for about two months now means that what you see is what you get. They are no better than a year ago, pre-EHH.
Absent any new initiatives to get things moving, i.e. more locomotives, crews etc., this is what CSX under EHH will look like.
This is even less than I thought he could do, and I wasn't optomistic.
Murphy Siding Double negatives or not no double negatives, I'm having a hard time keeping up.From the post above: Euclid I think it says exactly what I mean, either as reconstructed above or with my orginal double negative construction. What I said is an agnostic expression that I simply do not know whether the inputs are frozen or not. From an earlier post: Euclid I don’t think the process is frozen...
Euclid I think it says exactly what I mean, either as reconstructed above or with my orginal double negative construction. What I said is an agnostic expression that I simply do not know whether the inputs are frozen or not.
It is not a conflict. I do suspect that the process is not frozen. That is what I mean by "I don't think think the process is frozen". But I stop short of asserting that the process is not frozen because I don't know for sure. It just seems highly unlikely that the process is frozen because frozen is such an all inclusive term.
The way the process being frozen has been advanced seems to be intended to mean that nothing about CXS performance will improve under the management of EHH. It is obvious that it is intended as a judgment that EHH has failed.
EuclidMaybe this is more in response to your point: When I said “I would not even conclude that capital inputs are frozen," this does not mean that I do conclude that capital inputs are unfrozen. It does not go that far as to mean the opposite
Actually the comment as you just made it basically confirms the point I was making: you CANNOT ‘conclude’ anything here, even that ‘you can’t conclude modally yes or no there will be increased capital spending’ as if that is the only significant or even a particularly important point. That word should not be used in any thread like this, probably not even in a ‘meta’ sense.
The thing here is avoid ‘concluding’ anything in the sense of ‘proof’ you were using, as there is and can’t be sufficient certainty to form such opinions. I have long since automatically inserted the usual disclaimers into posts that express opinions in positive language, or that express opinion as if it were settled fact or even ‘preponderance of the evidence’. I will leave it up to Don whether to carefully define all his assumptions every time he opines in a sentence, or even to keep qualifying that each claim is not fully proven as he makes it. I would prefer ’assuming’ that anything he says is his opinion to assuming he thinks he has perfect knowledge and then attacking that instead of taking up the points about likelihood of outcome based on what he sees now and understands about the industry.
That certainly doesn’t mean you “have” to agree with him, but please, don’t disagree with the philosophy of the assumptions, just counter his arguments with evidence the other way — which you can do quite well when you look at the actual problem. This is not a debating society or the sophomore study hall of the philosophy department, it‘s a friendly discussion and should remain one.
The 'process' is on going - Mantle Ridge with EHH's 'help' is hoovering every available nickle and dime out of the CSX coffers. What happens in operations is mere window dressing.
Never too old to have a happy childhood!
Be intersting to see what happens if we get some good snow storms in the NE this winter.
The opinions expressed here represent my own and not those of my employer, any other railroad, company, or person.
zugmann Be interesting to see what happens if we get some good snow storms in the NE this winter.
Be interesting to see what happens if we get some good snow storms in the NE this winter.
It won’t be if, it’ll be when, and I suspect it’s not just snowfall that interferes with brittle precision scheduling.
What will be truly interesting is the scapegoat Hunter tries to use to explain Mother Nature’s wicked premeditated opposition to and sabotage of his bold new operating models.
Murphy Siding oltmannd Famous Earl Weaver quote to umpire who he thought was blowing balls and strikes calls. Just checked CSX numbers (from STB web site). Compared to a month ago, train speed down 0.3 mph. Dwell flat. Cars on Line up 2000. What does this mean? The numbers are the "voice of the process". That the numbers have been virtually flat for about two months now means that what you see is what you get. They are no better than a year ago, pre-EHH. Absent any new initiatives to get things moving, i.e. more locomotives, crews etc., this is what CSX under EHH will look like. This is even less than I thought he could do, and I wasn't optomistic. I agree with your logic. When the needle stops moving, that's an indication that movement has bottomed out or topped out.
I agree with your logic. When the needle stops moving, that's an indication that movement has bottomed out or topped out.
And when the needle stops moving, that's also an indication that it will never move again.
EuclidAnd when the needle stops moving, that's also an indication that it will never move again.
The needle is out of service.
zugmann Euclid And when the needle stops moving, that's also an indication that it will never move again. The needle is out of service.
Euclid And when the needle stops moving, that's also an indication that it will never move again.
That is always a possibility. It could be a bad gauge or the whole instrument cluster.
EuclidThat is always a possibility. It could be a bad gauge or the whole instrument cluster.
Or operator error.
If the storm is bad enough after Dec 18th of this year after the ELD mandate goes into effect and it effects NYC Boston and Washington DC the Fireworks that hit the DOT for their dropping the ball on regulations over the last 8 years could be interesting. As for CSX it could be really interesting for them also. To be good and honest I am wanting a massive blizzard that basically paralizes the logistics chain for about 1 week to hammer the country right after the New Year and for those that scream it won't have an effect to end up going where is the food in the store.
Euclid Murphy Siding oltmannd Famous Earl Weaver quote to umpire who he thought was blowing balls and strikes calls. Just checked CSX numbers (from STB web site). Compared to a month ago, train speed down 0.3 mph. Dwell flat. Cars on Line up 2000. What does this mean? The numbers are the "voice of the process". That the numbers have been virtually flat for about two months now means that what you see is what you get. They are no better than a year ago, pre-EHH. Absent any new initiatives to get things moving, i.e. more locomotives, crews etc., this is what CSX under EHH will look like. This is even less than I thought he could do, and I wasn't optomistic. I agree with your logic. When the needle stops moving, that's an indication that movement has bottomed out or topped out. And when the needle stops moving, that's also an indication that it will never move again.
I don't think we necessarily know that that is not true.
Murphy Siding Euclid Murphy Siding oltmannd Famous Earl Weaver quote to umpire who he thought was blowing balls and strikes calls. Just checked CSX numbers (from STB web site). Compared to a month ago, train speed down 0.3 mph. Dwell flat. Cars on Line up 2000. What does this mean? The numbers are the "voice of the process". That the numbers have been virtually flat for about two months now means that what you see is what you get. They are no better than a year ago, pre-EHH. Absent any new initiatives to get things moving, i.e. more locomotives, crews etc., this is what CSX under EHH will look like. This is even less than I thought he could do, and I wasn't optomistic. I agree with your logic. When the needle stops moving, that's an indication that movement has bottomed out or topped out. And when the needle stops moving, that's also an indication that it will never move again. I don't think we necessarily know that that is not true.
Well it might not be true once EHH is replaced with somebody who gets rid of all this precision railroading. Or it might not be true after this two months of the speaking voice of the process, even with EHH still in command. You never know what changes he might be making that will get the needle working again. You know what they always say: What you see is what you get.
---
EuclidYou have no idea what my background is.
And while many of us think you have no background in railroad operations but a lot of experience in debating, perhaps you could "put up or shut up". Will you provide some information about your background? Then we would have knowledge of your background.
Euclid You have no idea what my background is.
You have no idea what my background is.
This is getting old. Come on, kids, play nice.
_____________
"A stranger's just a friend you ain't met yet." --- Dave Gardner
Thanx. I like it BaltAD
Even looking the EHH perf. measures on the CSX site, the needle has been stuck for 10 weeks. No improvement - only a little noise.
According to CSX, the "improved" plan is fully in place. Just tweaking and improving execution to do. But, if the same folks and resources have been at it for 10 weeks with no improvment, what will make the needle move?
-Don (Random stuff, mostly about trains - what else? http://blerfblog.blogspot.com/)
oltmanndJust checked CSX numbers (from STB web site). Compared to a month ago, train speed down 0.3 mph. Dwell flat. Cars on Line up 2000.
Don, I have a couple questions:
Aside from whether the numbers are flat or not, what is the relative merit of the condition that they indicate?
If those numbers were permanently locked at their current values, how much could the business performance fluctuate between good and bad?
If being flat numbers is bad, what would be happening with the numbers if the situation was good?
If the numbers are staying flat, it means the miracle worker has fallen flat on his face. Now if only he would admit defeat and fall on his sword.
Euclid oltmannd Just checked CSX numbers (from STB web site). Compared to a month ago, train speed down 0.3 mph. Dwell flat. Cars on Line up 2000. Don, I have a couple questions: Aside from whether the numbers are flat or not, what is the relative merit of the condition that they indicate? If those numbers were permanently locked at their current values, how much could the business performance fluctuate between good and bad? If being flat numbers is bad, what would be happening with the numbers if the situation was good?
oltmannd Just checked CSX numbers (from STB web site). Compared to a month ago, train speed down 0.3 mph. Dwell flat. Cars on Line up 2000.
Train speed is supposed to show the 'fluidity' of the trains on the system. Good is higher speed, bad is lower speed.
Dwell is supposed to be indictive of the time cars spend in terminals - arrival to departure. Lower dwell is to be indicative of more efficient handling, higher dwell is indicative in delays in handing.
Cars on line is another measure in broader terms of a carriers fluidity. While business does fluctuate, cars on line fluctuate within a relatively narrow range - WHEN OPERATIONS ARE FLUID. When the carrier is congested the cars on line will increase dramatically above the historical norm.
Internally there are (or were) other measures - On Time Departure, On Time Arrival, Right Car-Right Train and measures about if customers receive the switching they requested in the time frame the carrier and the customer have agreed to.
The published numbers are just the very tip of the glossy highlights of numbers that mean anything - and they are numbers that with the political force of management can be fudged. The internal number, if they are still being kept, are the ones that tell the real condition of the 'patient'.
The published number are like a Doctor examining a patient and taking temperature, blood pressure and listening for a heart beat. The numbers are indicative of a body being alive - how well or sick the individual is requires a more in depth examination. If a patient flat lines - they are in big trouble.
With the Shipper/Consignees of CSX calling for another meeting with regulators about poor service - things are not what they need to be from a customer perspective.
Trains OnLineCSX Shippers Call for New Meeting with Federal Regulators Trains (Online) By Steve Sweeney November 15, 2017 Despite a full-day hearing on Oct. 11 before the Surface Transportation Board on CSX Transportation's performance, officials with the Rail Customer Coalition say the eastern railroad has failed to improve. They've asked to meet with federal regulators again and are repeating requests for the board to take some action in addition to listening to their complaints. In letters to the STB and members of the U.S. Senate's Commerce Committee and the House of Representative's Transportation Committee date Nov. 14, the shippers say they are experiencing "service changes with little notice, missed switches, and poor communication on delivery status." A coalition representative forwarded electronic versions of the letters to Trains News Wire. "CSX remains committed to delivering excellent service to our customers, and we are extremely disappointed by the Rail Customer Coalition’s opportunistic attempt to use this past summer’s service issues to push an unrelated regulatory agenda," CSX representative Rob Doolittle says to News Wire in an email. "CSX has recovered from the service issues we experienced earlier this year, we are proud of the great work that our dedicated railroaders have accomplished, and we continue to demonstrate our ongoing progress through our weekly dialog with the Surface Transportation Board. We intend to continue making our railroad safer, more efficient, with an even better service product." The representative cited statistics showing the railroad improved velocity and dwell time. The coalition is also calling on members of Congress to "examine the CSX service breakdown, and potential means available to the STB to mitigate the adverse impacts to the rail network." The committees could call their own hearings on CSX service or send letters to the STB or CSX looking for information. Individual members could introduce new legislation regulating railroads further: Giving the STB more powers, for instance. Members of the coalition, which include the American Chemistry Council, National Farmers Union, and the Sulphur Institute among 30 different organizations, have changed their tune little since early summer freight cars spent as many as 70 hours in "dwell time" in certain CSX yards. The railroad's metrics have improved since then, but now shippers are openly questioning whether the reported metrics matter when they perceive continued freight delays. The STB and Congress have yet to publicly respond to the shippers' letters. Read the coalition's letters to the Surface Transportation Board and to Congress online.
Trains (Online)
By Steve Sweeney
November 15, 2017
Despite a full-day hearing on Oct. 11 before the Surface Transportation Board on CSX Transportation's performance, officials with the Rail Customer Coalition say the eastern railroad has failed to improve. They've asked to meet with federal regulators again and are repeating requests for the board to take some action in addition to listening to their complaints.
In letters to the STB and members of the U.S. Senate's Commerce Committee and the House of Representative's Transportation Committee date Nov. 14, the shippers say they are experiencing "service changes with little notice, missed switches, and poor communication on delivery status."
A coalition representative forwarded electronic versions of the letters to Trains News Wire.
"CSX remains committed to delivering excellent service to our customers, and we are extremely disappointed by the Rail Customer Coalition’s opportunistic attempt to use this past summer’s service issues to push an unrelated regulatory agenda," CSX representative Rob Doolittle says to News Wire in an email. "CSX has recovered from the service issues we experienced earlier this year, we are proud of the great work that our dedicated railroaders have accomplished, and we continue to demonstrate our ongoing progress through our weekly dialog with the Surface Transportation Board. We intend to continue making our railroad safer, more efficient, with an even better service product."
The representative cited statistics showing the railroad improved velocity and dwell time.
The coalition is also calling on members of Congress to "examine the CSX service breakdown, and potential means available to the STB to mitigate the adverse impacts to the rail network."
The committees could call their own hearings on CSX service or send letters to the STB or CSX looking for information. Individual members could introduce new legislation regulating railroads further: Giving the STB more powers, for instance.
Members of the coalition, which include the American Chemistry Council, National Farmers Union, and the Sulphur Institute among 30 different organizations, have changed their tune little since early summer freight cars spent as many as 70 hours in "dwell time" in certain CSX yards. The railroad's metrics have improved since then, but now shippers are openly questioning whether the reported metrics matter when they perceive continued freight delays.
The STB and Congress have yet to publicly respond to the shippers' letters.
Read the coalition's letters to the Surface Transportation Board and to Congress online.
The numbers are decent indicators of the state of the network. Obviously, you can't manage by these measures. Nothing in them is actionable. But, internally, there are drill-downs and other measures that can point to specific problem areas.
For example, a location with high dwell might suffer from a bad plan (not likely), too much traffic, too much traffic as specific times of day, insufficient resources, or poor management - or a combination.
How far down you can drill into the data to get close to the root cause of the trouble depends on the number and skill of the folk you have to do the analysis and the richness and ease of use of the data you keep.
oltmannd Euclid oltmannd Just checked CSX numbers (from STB web site). Compared to a month ago, train speed down 0.3 mph. Dwell flat. Cars on Line up 2000. Don, I have a couple questions: Aside from whether the numbers are flat or not, what is the relative merit of the condition that they indicate? If those numbers were permanently locked at their current values, how much could the business performance fluctuate between good and bad? If being flat numbers is bad, what would be happening with the numbers if the situation was good? The numbers are decent indicators of the state of the network. Obviously, you can't manage by these measures. Nothing in them is actionable. But, internally, there are drill-downs and other measures that can point to specific problem areas. For example, a location with high dwell might suffer from a bad plan (not likely), too much traffic, too much traffic as specific times of day, insufficient resources, or poor management - or a combination. How far down you can drill into the data to get close to the root cause of the trouble depends on the number and skill of the folk you have to do the analysis and the richness and ease of use of the data you keep.
I see. Other than being rather consistent for two months, what does the data actually indicate about the state of the network, and how does that reflect on Harrison's management?
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