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1960 to 1970: what the heck happened?
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[quote user="MichaelSol"]<p>Railroads respond as other industries do to general economic conditions -- and regulation is blamed in one instance, and deregulation cheered in the other -- even though the results track almost identically the performance of capital-intensive deregulated industries under <u>both</u> circumstances.</p><p>To suggest that the reason that regulated railroads suffered the same fate as other capital intensive but deregulated industries under identical economic conditions was because railroads were regulated is simply a non-sequitur. It does not, cannot, follow from the premise.<br /> </p><p>This to me represents a "Belief System," not a genuine analysis of either regulation or deregulation.</p><p>[/quote]</p><p> </p>A "belief system?" A lack of "genuine analysis?" Come now, Sol. You know there is data, and you know there are "genuine" history books that empirically demonstrate that during the economically prosperous 1950's and 1960's, railroads were in decline while their deregulated competitors were experiencing growth. Who is being irrational? Your thesis is on the verge of saying that deregulation was completely irrelevant to how railroads fared financially. It's an extreme thesis you're arguing, and you know it. <p>One problem with your thesis is its premise that railroad performance tracks the performance of the nationwide economy. I think railroads are so large and have so much inertia that an economic shock like a nation-wide recession won't really be noticable on the railroad until maybe ten years down the road when the deferred maintenance that took place during the recession finally catches up to them. Thus, there is a response lag.</p><p>Another problem with your thesis is its premise that one business is like any other. How can you compare the Burlington Northern with Toyota and come to any meaningful conclusion? A railroad mainline is not an auto assembly line.</p><p>I think you're arguing extreme views to test them out, to mine the knowlege available here on the forum to proof them. I don't think you really believe most of what you argue. </p><p> </p>
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