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[quote user="Datafever"][quote user="futuremodal"] That's probably the most reasonable approach, far more reasonable than the GAO's extreme example of defining only rates above 300% R/VC as being captive.  It should be disappointing to any American that the normally credible GAO would use such an extreme and irrational methodology for determining captive rail customers.Here's some articles in Railway Age that touch on the subject of the looming spector of harsher regulations to come:<a href="http://www.railwayage.com/B/xfromtheeditor.html">http://www.railwayage.com/B/xfromtheeditor.html</a><a href="http://www.railwayage.com/B/feature1.html">http://www.railwayage.com/B/feature1.html</a>No wonder the GAO's (and Ken's) ascersion that "only 6% of rail customers are captive" seemed more fishy than usual.......[/quote]Whoa, whoa, whoa!!!  The GAO does not define captivity as > 300% R/VC.  It uses the 180% value for its basis of potentially captive shippers.   The GAO also recognizes the 180% value as the threshold for statutory relief.Here's the values from the October 2006 report:Since 1985, and as a percentage of all traffic, the amount of potentially captive traffic traveling at rates over 180 percent R/VC and the revenue generated from that traffic have both declined. Revenue generated from traffic traveling at rates over 180 percent R/VC decreased from 41 percent of all industry revenue in 1985 to 29 percent in 2004.However, since 1985, tonnage from traffic traveling at rates substantially over the threshold for rate relief has increased. Total industry tonnage has increased significantly (from 1.37 billion tons in 1985 to 2.14 billion tons in 2004), with the tonnage traveling at rates above 300 percent R/VC more than doubling—from about 53 million tons in 1985 to over 130 million tons in 2004.As a percentage of all industry traffic, traffic traveling at rates between 180 and 300 percent R/VC decreased from 36 percent in 1985 to 25 percent in 2004. In contrast, the percentage of all industry traffic traveling at rates above 300 percent R/VC increased from 4 percent in 1985 to 6 percent in 2004. I hope that clarifies the GAO position. [/quote]What I'm getting at is Ken's claim a while back that the GAO has measured the percentage of captive customers at only 6%.  Obviously, he left out a few details!To clarify, the number of captive shippers based on the >180% standard is around 30%.The number of captive shippers based on the >300% standard is 6%.Then the number of captive shippers based on a 140% standard can be guesstimated at about 45%(?), while the number of captive shippers based on having one physical connection to a Class I is about 55%(?).And most importantly of all, all captive shippers are domestic.
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