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Interesting thread. Some comments... 1. Why a shortline? Shortlines are usually contractually mandated to get all their traffic and have their share of the revenue dictated by the former Class I owner, e.g. you are captive. Which would be fine, except now you start to realize why the Class I gave up on the line in the first place - low traffic levels, terminal consolidation, etc. Why do you think the former owner will effectively want to reverse course and refocus on that traffic? 2. But if you are committed to such a dream, try to find a shortline that has access to quasi-unit train potential, e.g. a coal mine, a large wheat growing area, etc., or that has access to a transload alternative to interchange with a Class I, e.g. a barge port, or best yet both. If you can originate and terminate a good portion of your traffic base potential in the form of multiple car lots at a time, you will have as good a shot as any for success because then you can control part of your own business destiny, not the Class I connection. 3. Also, look for lines that have the potenial to become at least a secondary mainline in the future, and not just a dead end line. You remember the Washington Central? They bought the ex-NP Cascade line through the Yakima Valley to run as a shortline, then about 10 years later BN decided they might need that line again as a secondary main to the Stevens Pass and Columbia Gorge routes, and ended up paying WC a lot more to take it back than they sold it for in the first place. Needless to say, the WC owners ended up with quite a capital gain! 4. Take a page from the Watco Companies and try to pawn off as much of the infrastructural responsibility as possible onto the local and/or state governments (while retaining operating rights). The more you can absolve yourself of needless liability, the better off your chances of success. 5. For those still interested in all or parts of abandoned mainlines, take a good look at the ex-Milwaukee PCE. That grade is probably the best potential for rebuild in the nation, because it offers the easiest prospect of rebuilding a new east-west transcon with all that international trade potential. By all means, if you can get your hands on parts of that property go for it, even if you have no immediate plans to actually start up a shortline or regional. There is a growing national awareness for just how usefull it is to have new rail capacity available in the next few decades to capture both domestic and international trade growth, and there is no other ex-Class I gradient with as good a profile and geographic proximity to market optimization as the PCE. 6. Finally, if you want in of the ground floor of what it is like to be involved in a new rail project, start investing in the DM&E. That'll give you a first hand taste of all the particulars you would have to go through in starting up your own railroad.
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