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[quote]QUOTE: Originally posted by jeaton As bad as they might want track for heavy cars, the rate of generation of capital is not going to allow the Class 1's or anybody else to put in track any faster than heavy weight cars go into operation. And you may be a tad under on the replacement rates for cars for bulk materials. It is possible that half the fleet consist of such cars and at 10,000 cars per year replacement would span 75 years.[/quote] For reference, here's the last three year's data on new car orders and deliveries: http://www.railwayage.com/B/freightcars.html Thus, the three year average for new car deliveries has averaged a tad under 50,000 per year. Of those, approximately 1/3 are true heavy haul cars. Historically, rail car deliveries have averaged about 30,000 a year, so although my 10,000 figure for heavy haul cars is apt, but I'll adjust it upward since the trend is heading upward. So for the sake of number crunching, let's assume that new heavy haul cars will average 20,000 per year. 20,000 x $5000 is $100 million per year. Or lets take a more "heavy" weighted prediction and go with 40,000 heavy haul cars per year. 40,000 x $5000 is $200 million per year. Thus, it would take 5 years to reach a billion $$, and 35 years to reach the $7 billion figure used for the shortline upgrade example. Either way, the annualized cost of new heavy haul cars equiped with three axle trucks is still far less than the annualized cost to upgrade and maintain a nationwide network of track capable of handling the HAL cars. [quote]QUOTE: Now if you can design a car with a 75 year life, get going, because I guarantee that you will sell a bunch and you if you like you can even equip them with 5 axle trucks. [/quote] Well, 5 axle trucks might be a stretch, unless we're going to have 500 ton cars in the future! That said, we're delving into another topic for discusion, namely can today's railcars last longer than the FRA mandated retirement age? Some shortlines still have perfectly functional 220k cars plying the light rails dating back to the mid 1900's. Thus, it is not inconceivable that today's modern freight cars could last into 2075 if they're not abused.
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