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jeaton, You give a good cost assumption, but remember we're not talking about retrofitting the entire 1.5 million car fleet with three axle trucks, only new orders for heavy haul cars. That limits orders of three axle trucks to coal gons, grain hoppers, etc. not intermodal, large boxcars etc. Since new car orders for heavy haul cars usually amounts to a few thousand per year, the cost would acrue incrementally over decades rather than in the relatively short time period required for network rail upgrade. Assume orders for heavy haul cars is about 5,000 per year, and the three axle trucks cost the extra $5,000 per car, the added annual cost comes to about $25 million per year, and at that rate would take 40 years to approach the $1 billion threshhold. At 10,000 heavy haul cars per year, that's $50 million per year, or 20 years to approach the $1 billion threshhold. In other words, it would take hundreds of years before the cost of three axle truck orders would come close to the cost of upgrading and maintaining a nationwide rail network to handle 40 tons per axle, even if the shortlines all go belly up. beaulieu, I agree that the Class I's have no real interest in the viability of the shortline industry, statements of "our shortline partners" notwithstanding. But even without the shortlines, the cost assumptions I make do suggest a higher cost curve for upgrading and maintaining a HAL rail network rather than upgrading and maintaining a LAL railcar fleet with three axle trucks for heavy haul cars. Again, I wish we had more raw numbers to work with, because I think this debate is paramount to the interests of the railroad community. Mac, Since my hypothesis is predicated on the premise that the amount of steel and the cost thereof required for HAL rail and rail components is mega-times greater than the the amount of steel and subsequent manufacturing intricisies of the necessary components for rail-friendly three axle trucks on all future heavy haul railcar orders, the apriori basis favors my null hypothesis. When an apriori basis favors one side (e.g. the null hypothesis), it is up to the proponents of the alternative hypothesis to prove otherwise if there is disagreement with the apriori.
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