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[quote]QUOTE: Originally posted by oltmannd The really interesting question here that is at the center of this discussion is whether the revenue decline that occurred in the 1950s was understood and/or anticipated by 1950? If it WASN'T, and mgt dieselized for a traffic base that greatly eroded over the decade, then, or course, unit costs are going to look really lousy. Management can be rightfully blamed for not understanding their business. If it WAS, then either mgt was stupid OR dieselization was part of a move to suck money from a sinking ship - reducing real operating costs THIS YEAR, in lieu of some future loan payment in some future year after the RR has already been sucked dry, abandoned or sold off. In either case, the problem is the eroding revenue base and the root causes of this eroding traffic base are what need to be determined. I'd have to agree with others that deiselization was not one of the primary causes of the eroding revenue base - but more likely a reaction to it - for one reason or another. [/quote] Additional considerations at the time may have been the availablility of low interest reconstruction loans to convert industry back to peacetime production and get the economy going again. Also labor gained a great deal of strength under FDR and many business leaders may have felt things would go back to 'normal' under Ike. War and the immediate post war period cause significant economic disruptions and make forecasting very difficult. This is a little like saying stealth technology was responsible for the decline in earnings of defense contractors during the 90s. A much better approach would be to compare 2 similar railroads over the same time period, one which dieselized very quickly with one that didn't. If the data is available it might even be possible to compare divisions on the same railroad.
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