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Just to humor Ed; How to make up a train: Multiple consists roll into yard. Consists are broken up into carload blocks depending on eventual destination. New consists are then formed. Multiple consists roll out of yard. It's not overly complex, but it can be overwhelming for some. The more carload blocks a consist requires, the more time it takes to make up that consist, and the more time that consist spends in the yard, taking up capacity. The less carload blocks a consist requires, the less time it takes to make up that consist, and the less time that consists spends in the yard, freeing up capacity. greyhounds - You're slipping into Ed territory. That being said, you said something that begs for objectivity. We all know about aggregation, glad to see that you do as well, so we can skip that primer. You stated, "How much they aggregate depends on a trade off between customer service, capital costs, and operating expense." What we've been discussing is that very trade off to which you refer. The railroad wants to aggregate to the max, because the bean counters say that's the best way. The merchandise customer wants his shipment at a decent price AND in an expedient manner, else he gets fed up and takes his shipping to the mode of last resort, trucking. Trucking is generally more expensive than carload, so the shipper is taking a hit if that expediency is not manifested by the railroad. Thus there is a HUGE middle ground between the single 53' truckload and the 125 unit TOFC or 250 box COFC. The truckers are limited to the number of boxes they can haul per trip to 2 (and sometimes 3) trailers max, so they cannot touch this middle ground for opportunity. But the railroad can, and if they do as you implicitly suggest and find the minimum number of boxes it takes to beat the trucker's maximum efficiency, they can grab and own this middle market. The real subjective question then is how few boxes can a railroad haul and still make money. There are plenty of shortines out there that make good money hauling 20 to 25 carloads a day. The Class I's have it in them to do the same for the sake of expanding their market reach and getting back all that business they've lost to trucking. What they lose in maximum efficiency they make up for in an expanded customer base. BTW, I never said four 25 car trains were "more efficient" than one 100 car train, what I said is that more expedient dispatching can free up capacity, and that capacity emancipation would have a positive effect on capital costs, contrary to Bitzan's theory. (BTW, did you read his study yourself"). When single cars are only averaging one carload per month, even you would have to admit that such is a waste of capital, and is inexcusable 'cept for the fact that that's just how it's done in railroading, and only status quo railroaders "know anything" about railroading. You also missed the point about the 4 vs 1 dynamic, as there are two possible outcomes in the constant tonnage scenario: (1)The 4 smaller trains are just as slow as the one, so there is no customer service gain to buttress revenues but there is more capital cost (Bitzan's paraphrased view), and (2) the 4 smaller trains will be more expedient (from the customer's perspective) in transit, thus revenues from increased customer satisfaction will offset the reduced efficiencies of shorter consists. Of course, real world examples show that current multi-user lines do aggregate into maximum consists, contrary to Bitzan's theory. The spector of the shorter faster consist under OA looms from the market entry of traditional non-rail transportation entities (trucking firms, intermodal firms) into the train running business. Again, it comes down to that HUGE middle ground which you refuse to acknowledge, but of which non-rail firms seem to have grasped. It is akin to the FastShip concept, where they see a middle ground between containership speeds and air freight speeds (and their respective rates). Will FastShip fly? None of us knows yet, but it is my view that the middle ground between truckload and "maximized" trainload has a greater market potential than the intercontinental middle ground FastShip is trying to exploit.
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