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[quote]QUOTE: Originally posted by CSSHEGEWISCH FM: What are the "natural" shares of each mode for the transportation market and how were these figures determined? Since open access is supposed to eliiminate captive shippers, how would you guarantee that at least three operators (your "triopoly") would be in every market without regulation? Why would long-haul trucking firms leave what is to them a lucrative market in favor of setting up a rail operating company, an area in which they have little to no expertise? [/quote] 1. "Natural shares" is a subjective point. It is my belief that if all modes had thier ROW's financed in an equalized way, and the potential shippers had access to competitive rail choices, railroading's share of the freight transportation market would double. Railroading had at one time a 70% share before highways evolved into cutting edge open access transportation corridors while railroads devolved into an over-regulated closed access system. It is not hard to conceive that an open access rail system with equalized ROW support would own all long haul and medium haul freight prospects outside of highly specialized truckloads. You'd be suprised at how many entreprenuers could find opportunities that are missed by satiated entities, given the chance. 2. There is no "guarantee" that at least three transporters would respond to every market opportunity, or even two. All that can be guaranteed is the opportunity to serve without exclusion. 3. Trucking firms face a long term problem with driver shortages and turnover. Anytime they can move multiple truckloads in concentrated consists (even as small as 10 or 20 at a time), they will alleviate that over the road driver conundrum. If given the opportunity, you would see the larger trucking firms running TOFC and bi-modal consists on their own terms, because to them that serves the bigger picture, a picture which the railroads cannot see with their Rose-colored glasses.
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