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[quote]QUOTE: Originally posted by Overmod JBToy, the fundamental problem with what you suggest is the fundamental 4- and 6-year cycles of American politics. You can call for a 20-year plan, you can set one up, you can do whatever you want to implement one... but either Congress or the executive branch can, and will, change what they want while in power..... I know of no organization or individual 'voice' like Walter Lippmann who would be capable of evolving and maintaining a 20-year long-term vision that would be CREDIBLE to all the players. ..... I can also say with great assurance that it is not practical to forecast demographics for the United States with a 20-year forecast. [/quote] Perhaps I've hung around more bureaucrats than you have. 20-year planning is routine in highway departments across the nation. 20 year planning is commonly done by land-use planners. My own county is working on its next 20 year plan as I write this. I remember when the last one was approved in 1984. California has a 10 year plan for intrastate rail services. (see: http://www.dot.ca.gov/hq/rail/railplan/csrp.htm ) Long-term planning is essential for any multi-billion dollar capital investment. For something on the scale of a national rail system, it would be more of an outline than a detail of every track and train schedule. It is the foundation, not the structure. A proper long-term plan would be flexible enough to accommodate changes in circumstances. But if its gonna cost a lot of money, it has to be justified by providing a demonstrable long-term benefit. Amtrak can't keep muddling along from one year to the next without having some idea of where the company is going, where the demand will be, or what is required to provide for it. We know that traffic grows. That is a fact. It has grown for aviation, it has grown for highways, and even with Amtrak's severely limited capacity, ridership continues to grow on nearly all of its trains. Building the infrastructire to accommodate growth takes a good deal of time, usually several years for even a simple project, so it is essential that we anticipate long-term needs so we can direct the financial resources into the right places. Forecasting the future is an inexact science, but without it we are working in the dark. Of course, forceasts of ridership and traffic are not absolute, but they are based on observable trends and coordinated with things like land-use plans, which in turn affect demographics, which in turn affect transportation needs. I've read quite a few transportation planning reports and they take all of these things and more into account. These plans take quite awhile to develop, and require years of study, public hearings, environmental review, engineeering, design, and more. So looking 20 years out is not unrealistic at all. It is, in fact, a matter of routine in many areas of government. But it has never been done for passenger rail outside of a few states, probably because the infrastructure is largely out of public control.
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