Going by stock symbols it would be CNI or CP. Granted that CN has probably higher revenues and more traffic but I am wondering how much that would translate down to the bottom line into stock price appreciation or stock buy backs. CP is definitely the underdog compared with CN because of all the debt CP has but can CP shed that debt fast via aggressive persuit of clients and traffic? Who will end up in better shape as a railroad when the competition is finished if it ever does finish?
As a railroad will CP ever catch up to CN? Is there a chance that CP can surpass CN in the future? Seems like both railroads are still in a competitive race. Reminds me of the Coke vs Pepsi competition.
What do you think? Just curious.
BTW, I did get a good snicker at the "Silver" vs "Gold" spike used in video below. Classic railroad approach: gold is too expensive right now so silver will have to do.
https://youtu.be/KeQm7tmsxMo
CPKC will always be in the shadow of CN..
Form an operations standpoint,
CPKC has a lackluster network east of Chicago. Core lanes are reached on trackage rights, with a tunnel at Detroit (They also don't serve their IM ramp in Detroit.. CSX provides service via NWO) lacking Plate H clearance. In order to reach the Port of Saint John it requires crossing the US/CAN border twice.
CPKC is handicapped by being stuck between Mexico and Chicago. When Chicago is not the main terminating market for Mexican products. This requires expensive drayage and carriage from Midwestern points east of Chicago.
The Mexican concession is not a sureshot as Mexican Industrial policy has always been wishy washy. Current President AMLO has proven this with seizure of RoW and private industry. His successor will surely carry the torch, as AMLO has spread his influence on the Mexican Assembly. The Mexican concession currently operated by CPKC loses exclusivity in 2037, with the concession itself expiring in 2047. That's only if it's not nationalized going forward...UP played it smart by taking a 26% stake in Ferromex.
The merger with KCS was a move of desperation..
SD60MAC9500 The merger with KCS was a move of desperation..
It also served to stroke Creel's ego and cement his legacy as the last person to orchestrate a merger of Class I railroads.
Greetings from Alberta
-an Articulate Malcontent
SD60MAC9500The Mexican concession is not a sureshot as Mexican Industrial policy has always been wishy washy. Current President AMLO has proven this with seizure of RoW and private industry. His successor will surely carry the torch, as AMLO has spread his influence on the Mexican Assembly. The Mexican concession currently operated by CPKC loses exclusivity in 2037, with the concession itself expiring in 2047. That's only if it's not nationalized going forward...UP played it smart by taking a 26% stake in Ferromex.
Yeah, this forum is a little too harsh with it's evaluations of Mexico.
I think with nearshoring increasing that Mexico is drawing closer to the U.S. Market and I think we are going to see an extension vs a retrenchment with the agreement KCS had prior. Not worried about all the passenger train business South of the border and CPKC doesn't seem to be either. Even more to the subject some of those proposals South of the Border are being pushed jointly by Texas Congressional Representatives and Amtrak has been dragged into it as well for some of the cross border stuff.
Curious thing as well prior to the KCS Merger CP was growing it's cash flow a lot faster than CN. I still think it is more aggressive at marketing.
As for the Detroit River Tunnels, Detroit knows those are an issue as well and I think the Ford Family does. Would not be too surprised to see a future project there.............though it will take time. CPKC is pretty good so far with getting Federal Funds to fix up infrastructure in my view as well.
I think we might have a better picture in 5-7 years. Though I think there is no dispute that CN will always have the larger and more dominant system North of the Mexican border.
CN CEO Tracy Robinson nailed it when, in a recent interview with Railway Age, she stated that railroads need to cooperate more as well as compete. Ultimately the goal is more freight for everyone at better margins, and that can only be accomplished by baking a bigger freight pie..i.e going after truck freight where it makes sense and encouraging shippers to sell into other markets. The railroads need to cooperate to optimize the outcome for shippers, and secondarily, they can compete on stuff where it makes sense. The starting point has to be what's best for the shipper.
So the name of the game isn't who will beat who, it's how do we both come ahead by giving the customer the best possible service.
Ulrich So the name of the game isn't who will beat who, it's how do we both come ahead by giving the customer the best possible service.
Shades of the Northeast "Alphabet" routes.
Larry Resident Microferroequinologist (at least at my house) Everyone goes home; Safety begins with you My Opinion. Standard Disclaimers Apply. No Expiration Date Come ride the rails with me! There's one thing about humility - the moment you think you've got it, you've lost it...
Ulrich CN CEO Tracy Robinson nailed it when, in a recent interview with Railway Age, she stated that railroads need to cooperate more as well as compete. Ultimately the goal is more freight for everyone at better margins, and that can only be accomplished by baking a bigger freight pie..i.e going after truck freight where it makes sense and encouraging shippers to sell into other markets. The railroads need to cooperate to optimize the outcome for shippers, and secondarily, they can compete on stuff where it makes sense. The starting point has to be what's best for the shipper. So the name of the game isn't who will beat who, it's how do we both come ahead by giving the customer the best possible service.
SD70Dude SD60MAC9500 The merger with KCS was a move of desperation.. It also served to stroke Creel's ego and cement his legacy as the last person to orchestrate a merger of Class I railroads.
Yep, being able to accomplish what his mentor Hunter couldn't, he perched himself on a high horse..
CMStPnP SD60MAC9500 The Mexican concession is not a sureshot as Mexican Industrial policy has always been wishy washy. Current President AMLO has proven this with seizure of RoW and private industry. His successor will surely carry the torch, as AMLO has spread his influence on the Mexican Assembly. The Mexican concession currently operated by CPKC loses exclusivity in 2037, with the concession itself expiring in 2047. That's only if it's not nationalized going forward...UP played it smart by taking a 26% stake in Ferromex. Yeah, this forum is a little too harsh with it's evaluations of Mexico. I think with nearshoring increasing that Mexico is drawing closer to the U.S. Market and I think we are going to see an extension vs a retrenchment with the agreement KCS had prior. Not worried about all the passenger train business South of the border and CPKC doesn't seem to be either. Even more to the subject some of those proposals South of the Border are being pushed jointly by Texas Congressional Representatives and Amtrak has been dragged into it as well for some of the cross border stuff. Curious thing as well prior to the KCS Merger CP was growing it's cash flow a lot faster than CN. I still think it is more aggressive at marketing.As for the Detroit River Tunnels, Detroit knows those are an issue as well and I think the Ford Family does. Would not be too surprised to see a future project there.............though it will take time. CPKC is pretty good so far with getting Federal Funds to fix up infrastructure in my view as well.I think we might have a better picture in 5-7 years. Though I think there is no dispute that CN will always have the larger and more dominant system North of the Mexican border.
SD60MAC9500 The Mexican concession is not a sureshot as Mexican Industrial policy has always been wishy washy. Current President AMLO has proven this with seizure of RoW and private industry. His successor will surely carry the torch, as AMLO has spread his influence on the Mexican Assembly. The Mexican concession currently operated by CPKC loses exclusivity in 2037, with the concession itself expiring in 2047. That's only if it's not nationalized going forward...UP played it smart by taking a 26% stake in Ferromex.
I wouldn't call it harsh those are the facts. Nearshoring is also not the huge movement as being stated by some outlets.. Most Chinese producers are moving production inland away from its now expensive seaboard. Vietnam and the rest of the Asian Tiger Cubs, are taking on a greater share of manufacturing, and India.
Mexico still has major security concerns. Cartel violence has exploded, the border is a mess.. Nearshoring is not going to be this massive movement many are expecting.. Cheap reliable energy grid, labor, and favorable government policy, determine where manufacturing goes, and grows.. Mexico lacks 2 out of 3, and its labor cost is still ahead of ASEAN nations..
SD60MAC9500Mexico lacks 2 out of 3, and its labor cost is still ahead of ASEAN nations..
And yet, nearshoring is still happening. I'm not going to go off on a tangent on stats but this proves my point on being overly harsh with evaluations of Mexico.
Businesses look at all the stats not just a few (total package). Labor costs are cheaper in Mexico than China and it is well into the double digits, reduced threat of IP loss, cheaper to transport from Mexico, etc, etc.
Cartel issues are mostly a perception among tourists North of the Border. They are an issue but not the percieved issue in the United States. I had a project down there when it was being hyped up here about beheadings in Mexico City, etc. It was OK and the media was near hysterical about it in the United States. I felt safe everywhere I went. My Sister-In-Law is from Mexico and she travels there with my Brother frequently, no issues and little to no fear. Mexico does have an issue with corruption and that is why they lean so heavily on the military for law enforcement at the moment. It freaks out Americans when they see the military visibility. However, can tell you having been in the ARNG it freaks out rural Americans when they see the ARNG deployed.
The power issues in Mexico are related to unexpected or prolonged climate events as well as lack of investment. Same issues in Texas and in fact just yesterday I was told by Russian internet gamers that blackouts across Russia due to unexpected climate or so they explained their lack of focus on the game was due to an outage (has not been reported in our press yet).
However, this whole exchange makes another point I wanted to make that I suspect heavily the value of CPKC has been discounted in people's minds due to a lot of the above perceptions. Many I think are given too much importance and really some are not all that accurate and as we move into the future this will become more and more apparent and CPKC's value will increase accordingly on the perception front.
Time will tell of course but this is how I see it.
China is on the brink of war with Taiwan; and India, Vietnam etc have serious problems of their own that could up-end supply chains, causing economic chaos around the globe. Nearshoring with Mexico would bring Mexico and perhaps Central America along and stem the flow of migrants who are looking for a better life. At present we rely too heavily on trade with far off countries that don't share our values and are hostile to us.. not a good situation for us when our economy is tied to the whims of a foreign dictator.
And then of course there's the environment.. last summer Americans choked on the smoke of Canada's record breaking forest fires, and this year and going forward the situation will only get worse. Transportation emissions are among the largest contributors to global warming, and longterm the best way to cut down on those emissions is to reduce the demand for transportation. Transportation demand that is driven by the cost of cheap labour and lax environmental regulations in far off countries is not sustainable... rail from Mexico is a cleaner option than shipping from distant Asia. But ideally we would be making our own pots and pans and cars here.. that should be the goal.
It appears that CPKC is picking up intermodal loads on the Chicago - Montreal lane which runs on CSX thru NW Ohio. The train works at NWO and appears to be dropping a block which is then moved on CSX trains. I am only guessing but that block probably moves on CSX 150 to Detroit.
For instance, yesterday CSX166 (the CP intermodal eastbound train) had 272 intermodal containers thru Deshler, Oh at 840AM. When 166 passed Berea at 250pm it had 214 containers...indicating containers were dropped off at NWO. Whether or not it picked up eastbound containers...I have no idea but it did have a net adjustment of -58 containers.
I have no hard data on CPKC's container movements on this lane, but typically they were running 100 - 125 containers just a few months ago. It appears they are gaining market share.
ed
MP173It appears that CPKC is picking up intermodal loads on the Chicago - Montreal lane which runs on CSX thru NW Ohio. The train works at NWO and appears to be dropping a block which is then moved on CSX trains. I am only guessing but that block probably moves on CSX 150 to Detroit.
Some IM traffic has been showing up on the CSX St Lawrence Sub of late. CSX built an IM facility at Valleyfield, QC, which didn't see much use. Perhaps this traffic will revive it.
The traffic would come east on the "Chicago Line" and head north from Syracuse, probably after a brief stop at Dewitt Yard.
UlrichCN CEO Tracy Robinson nailed it when, in a recent interview with Railway Age, she stated that railroads need to cooperate more as well as compete.
I think Canada is trying that with "interswitching" in the Praries from what I read. CPKC and CN are not happy about it and their political/market position is that U.S. Railroads will steal traffic from Canadian railroads..........fear of BNSF and UP apparently. You can Google that and read up on it.
I think the CPKC business relationship with CSX is going to get a lot closer over concerns with CN and UP. Time will tell but that would be my guess. Not sure what NS will do but NS has the Meridian Speedway partnership, even if they have that slow to a crawl river bridge in Mississippi.
CMStPnP SD60MAC9500 Mexico lacks 2 out of 3, and its labor cost is still ahead of ASEAN nations.. And yet, nearshoring is still happening. I'm not going to go off on a tangent on stats but this proves my point on being overly harsh with evaluations of Mexico. Businesses look at all the stats not just a few (total package). Labor costs are cheaper in Mexico than China and it is well into the double digits, reduced threat of IP loss, cheaper to transport from Mexico, etc, etc. Cartel issues are mostly a perception among tourists North of the Border. They are an issue but not the percieved issue in the United States. I had a project down there when it was being hyped up here about beheadings in Mexico City, etc. It was OK and the media was near hysterical about it in the United States. I felt safe everywhere I went. My Sister-In-Law is from Mexico and she travels there with my Brother frequently, no issues and little to no fear. Mexico does have an issue with corruption and that is why they lean so heavily on the military for law enforcement at the moment. It freaks out Americans when they see the military visibility. However, can tell you having been in the ARNG it freaks out rural Americans when they see the ARNG deployed. The power issues in Mexico are related to unexpected or prolonged climate events as well as lack of investment. Same issues in Texas and in fact just yesterday I was told by Russian internet gamers that blackouts across Russia due to unexpected climate or so they explained their lack of focus on the game was due to an outage (has not been reported in our press yet). However, this whole exchange makes another point I wanted to make that I suspect heavily the value of CPKC has been discounted in people's minds due to a lot of the above perceptions. Many I think are given too much importance and really some are not all that accurate and as we move into the future this will become more and more apparent and CPKC's value will increase accordingly on the perception front. Time will tell of course but this is how I see it.
SD60MAC9500 Mexico lacks 2 out of 3, and its labor cost is still ahead of ASEAN nations..
Energy, Labor, and Governmental Policy are the core determiners of where manufacturing goes and grows..
While China labor cost have edged up. China still has better infrastructure, plus the Go West strategy will bring those cost down again..
China is not a part of ASEAN, these are the nations that make up ASEAN,
Brunei, Burma, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam.
Labor cost in Vietnam for example average USD$2.73/hr
Nearshoring has been, and will be very limited in Mexico, and this has only concerned durable goods mainly, i.e., appliances, autoparts, and automobiles
chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/https://www.nist.gov/system/files/documents/mep/data/RESHORING_MYTH-OR-REALITY.pdf
Mexico does not produce a large export market of non-durables for US consumption, i.e., clothing, footwear, papers, plastics. With the exception of food, and beverages
Garments are still produced largely in ASEAN nations and South America (Colombia by far the largest)
In fact the "growth" in Mexico is not from near-shoring.. Advanced manufacturing indutries such as, automotive, and aerospace are building or expanding existing facilities.. Rails may haul the former but none of the latter out of Mexico..
The only oppurtunity for growth, is more perishable and auto traffic (which may see near-shoring of some autoparts production from China). Which CPKC will have to compete against interlines of UP/FXE to; CN, NS, and CSX. Which don't have the impediment of Chicago as their end point.
Yet speaking of automtive traffic....It still has the handicap of not owning a core route between Chicago-Detroit.. Toronto, and Montreal are reached via a circuitous routing. As Americans (and Canadians) have switched to driving larger vehicles, Plate H (20' 3") autoracks are making a comeback. The Detroit-Windsor Tunnel creates another barrier.. Since this Hi-Cube traffic has to go CSX via Buffalo/Fort Erie. They lack a facility to load/unload in the Detroit area. All vehicles shipments are trucked from Bensenville or have to cross the border twice from Detroit to Windsor. Then back across the border. Not very efficient and expensive. CN, CSX and NS don’t have this problem..
Adding to this list of handicaps.. CPKC will remain the expensive Intermodal option in the NAFTA corridor..
MP173 It appears that CPKC is picking up intermodal loads on the Chicago - Montreal lane which runs on CSX thru NW Ohio. The train works at NWO and appears to be dropping a block which is then moved on CSX trains. I am only guessing but that block probably moves on CSX 150 to Detroit. For instance, yesterday CSX166 (the CP intermodal eastbound train) had 272 intermodal containers thru Deshler, Oh at 840AM. When 166 passed Berea at 250pm it had 214 containers...indicating containers were dropped off at NWO. Whether or not it picked up eastbound containers...I have no idea but it did have a net adjustment of -58 containers. I have no hard data on CPKC's container movements on this lane, but typically they were running 100 - 125 containers just a few months ago. It appears they are gaining market share. ed
This maybe related to the recent border closures at Eagle Pass, where shippers switched some loads to CPKC.
Today's CPKC dropped off the first 42 international containers at NWO. Past Deshler with 191 containers (4 domestics) and thru Fostoria with 149.
If those do go to Detroit, will be on tomorrow's Csx 150 which leaves NWO around 8am.
Ed
SD60MAC9500 (They also don't serve their IM ramp in Detroit.. CSX provides service via NWO)
(They also don't serve their IM ramp in Detroit.. CSX provides service via NWO)
They do, just not from the west. There is a daily turn out of London that serves Oak.
An "expensive model collector"
n012944 SD60MAC9500 (They also don't serve their IM ramp in Detroit.. CSX provides service via NWO) They do, just not from the west. There is a daily turn out of London that serves Oak.
Thanks for this confirmation. I saw some traffic come off the NE (CP Lou) connector at Dearborn from the CSAO to CSX for Oak.
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