Railway Age has a link to the CN 2023-4 Grain Plan for western Canada.
https://www.railwayage.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/2023-24-Grain-Plan-EN.pdf
Pretty interest stuff if you are interested in railroading behind the locomotives (economic railfan) as I am. The 48 page report goes into considerable detail on the projections for this year's grain crops and how those will be transported, primarily to the West coast for export.
I am not an expert on Canada grain, but found this an interesting read until work started piling up. Will review later.
One thing I found interesting. CN has about 13,000 covered hoppers available and indicated they plan on moving 7800 cars/week during non winter months and 6250 during winter.
Seems to me that is very high utilization...turning a car every 2 weeks including spotting, loading, transporting to tranloading terminal, unloading, returning for assignment.
Is that reasonable? Any other "Canada grain" issues to discuss?
Ed
That is high utilization - and easily attainable IF REPEAT IF - Terminal Operations have no hitches in the giddyup. Load a unit train in 24 hours at Origin, unload the same train in 24 hours at the ports. Minimal line of road delays on both the loaded and empty trips.
What is the likelyhood of everything going right all the time?
Never too old to have a happy childhood!
BaltACD What is the likelyhood of everything going right all the time?
CSSHEGEWISCH BaltACD What is the likelyhood of everything going right all the time? Probably about the same as the sun rising in the west tomorrow or your spouse admitting she made a mistake.
Since I have been happily divorced for 35 years ....
MP173 Railway Age has a link to the CN 2023-4 Grain Plan for western Canada. https://www.railwayage.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/2023-24-Grain-Plan-EN.pdf Pretty interest stuff if you are interested in railroading behind the locomotives (economic railfan) as I am. The 48 page report goes into considerable detail on the projections for this year's grain crops and how those will be transported, primarily to the West coast for export. I am not an expert on Canada grain, but found this an interesting read until work started piling up. Will review later. One thing I found interesting. CN has about 13,000 covered hoppers available and indicated they plan on moving 7800 cars/week during non winter months and 6250 during winter. Seems to me that is very high utilization...turning a car every 2 weeks including spotting, loading, transporting to tranloading terminal, unloading, returning for assignment. Is that reasonable? Any other "Canada grain" issues to discuss? Ed
Ed:
If you take the average weekly grain tonnage shipped in Oct/Nov 2022-23 in figure 17 (~710,000 metric tonnes) and divide it by the 2022-23 average payload per rail car in figure 16 (~95 metric tonnes), you get 7,473 cars per week. That's close to the 7,800 cars CN is forecasting for 2023-24. Looking at figure 17, the weekly tonnage shipped stats have been trending consistently upward since 2007-08, with single year decreases (like 2021-22) due to droughts and resulting smaller grain harvests.
And if some of the naysayers here would have read the document all the way thru, they would have seen that CN is well aware of all of the logistical issues outside of their control that can screw things up. In fact, inclement weather at the Pacific ports significantly impacted shipments in weeks 13-15 during 2022-23, with 20 grain trains getting held at various points along CN's mainlines due to the port congestion (page 11). One can only assume that this uncertainity was "baked in" to CN's 2023-24 forecast.
Given CN's investment in newer high-capacity cars, new and rebuilt Wabtec-GE locomotives delivered in late 2022/2023, and capacity improvement projects, I think they probably can get close to 7,800 cars per week. I wish SD70dude would chime in with his thoughts. I would like to hear what his "boots on the ground" view of the situation is.
Here are the latest crop forecast stats for Canada: https://agriculture.canada.ca/en/sector/crops/reports-statistics/canada-outlook-principal-field-crops-2023-07-21. Overall crop forecasts are slightly below 2022-23 and significantly above 2021-22.
How much Canadian grain has become 'toasted' from the Canadian wildfires that have been distributing their smoke and ashes across the USA?
BaltACD How much Canadian grain has become 'toasted' from the Canadian wildfires that have been distributing their smoke and ashes across the USA?
Drought is going to drive the Canadian harvest. And that situation doesn't look very good right now, especially in the area between Calgary, Saskatoon, and Regina: https://agriculture.canada.ca/en/agricultural-production/weather/canadian-drought-monitor/current-drought-conditions
The fires have been primarily located in the forested areas to the east, west, and north of the Canadian prairie.
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