I've read that CPKC will effect the merger on April 14, 2023.
They plan, or so I've read, to kick things off with a train from Chicago to Mexico City.
Does anyone have knowledge of when that train will leave Chicago. I'd like to go take a picture of it.
greyhoundsI've read that CPKC will effect the merger on April 14, 2023. They plan, or so I've read, to kick things off with a train from Chicago to Mexico City. Does anyone have knowledge of when that train will leave Chicago. I'd like to go take a picture of it.
You know what is kind of scary for CPKC? The current President of Mexico is Nationalizing everything again, Energy and Mining has been hit so far but will he also attempt railroads? I think if I were CP I would be really nervous. Though I thought I read something in the past that before KCS took control or invested in the Mexican railway system it wrote something in the agreement about if the Mexican government nationalizes everything again. Not sure how effective that would be but I seem to remember something akin to that.
greyhounds I've read that CPKC will effect the merger on April 14, 2023. They plan, or so I've read, to kick things off with a train from Chicago to Mexico City. Does anyone have knowledge of when that train will leave Chicago. I'd like to go take a picture of it.
According to the TRAINS Newswire story, the first run won't be until sometime in late April or early May - https://www.trains.com/trn/news-reviews/news-wire/cpkcs-first-new-trains-will-handle-cross-border-perishables-shipments/
CMStPnP greyhounds I've read that CPKC will effect the merger on April 14, 2023. They plan, or so I've read, to kick things off with a train from Chicago to Mexico City. Does anyone have knowledge of when that train will leave Chicago. I'd like to go take a picture of it. You know what is kind of scary for CPKC? The current President of Mexico is Nationalizing everything again, Energy and Mining has been hit so far but will he also attempt railroads? I think if I were CP I would be really nervous. Though I thought I read something in the past that before KCS took control or invested in the Mexican railway system it wrote something in the agreement about if the Mexican government nationalizes everything again. Not sure how effective that would be but I seem to remember something akin to that.
KCS' Mexican concession currently ends in 2037. If BNSF or UP were to wrest control of the KSCM lines away from CPKC in 14 years, that could make things very interesting.
I do think KCS and KCSM are valuable properties, but $31 billion? NS and CSX paid $10 billion for Conrail in the late 1990's. That would be roughly $19 billion today. And that was to buy a massive intermodal and merchandise franchise between the Northeast and Chicago/St. Louis. NS and CSX have developed that investment into a pair of 100+ million gross ton corridors between Chicago and the Northeast. Looking at CPKC merger application there is nowhere near that volume of traffic for CPKC to tap into. Starting to think that the stock buybacks might end pretty quick if CPKC can't meet its growth targets. NS and CSX were in dicey financial shape for a few years after the Conrail split.
ns145 KCS' Mexican concession currently ends in 2037. If BNSF or UP were to wrest control of the KSCM lines away from CPKC in 14 years, that could make things very interesting. I do think KCS and KCSM are valuable properties, but $31 billion? NS and CSX paid $10 billion for Conrail in the late 1990's. That would be roughly $19 billion today. And that was to buy a massive intermodal and merchandise franchise between the Northeast and Chicago/St. Louis. NS and CSX have developed that investment into a pair of 100+ million gross ton corridors between Chicago and the Northeast. Looking at CPKC merger application there is nowhere near that volume of traffic for CPKC to tap into. Starting to think that the stock buybacks might end pretty quick if CPKC can't meet its growth targets. NS and CSX were in dicey financial shape for a few years after the Conrail split.
The perfect opportunity to showcase a new paint scheme or, dare I say it, their experimental fuel cell locomotive.
JayBee ns145 KCS' Mexican concession currently ends in 2037. If BNSF or UP were to wrest control of the KSCM lines away from CPKC in 14 years, that could make things very interesting. I do think KCS and KCSM are valuable properties, but $31 billion? NS and CSX paid $10 billion for Conrail in the late 1990's. That would be roughly $19 billion today. And that was to buy a massive intermodal and merchandise franchise between the Northeast and Chicago/St. Louis. NS and CSX have developed that investment into a pair of 100+ million gross ton corridors between Chicago and the Northeast. Looking at CPKC merger application there is nowhere near that volume of traffic for CPKC to tap into. Starting to think that the stock buybacks might end pretty quick if CPKC can't meet its growth targets. NS and CSX were in dicey financial shape for a few years after the Conrail split. The concession for KCSdeM runs until 2047, that is fifty years from the date that the agreement was signed.
Did a little digging. The original deal was a 50 year concession (2047), with 30 years of exclusivity (2027). In 2022 KCSM received a ten year extension to the exclusivity portion of the agreement. Theoretically, KCSM could find itself losing exclusive rights to the concession trackage in 2037. Sure would have been nice if the 2022 TRAINS Newswire story on the extension would have described the complexities of the concession agreement in a little more detail.
ns145Sure would have been nice if the 2022 TRAINS Newswire story on the extension would have described the complexities of the concession agreement in a little more detail.
Greyhound:
I think you should personally find a way to ride the train and point out to CPKCS the vast opportunities to pickup meat in Davenport for transport to Mexico and return with vegetables and fruit.
Regarding the valuation, only time will tell. Agree there is no potential to get to 100 million GTM on any line. I see weaknesses in their Toronto to Chicago segment and obviously the Chicago to KC line needs upgrading. North-south traffic just doesnt seem to possess the potential as E-W.
Ed
The Conrail deal also unlocked potential southeast to NY and Chicago traffic.
Grinding coal to captive power plant customers is one thing. The Ozark and Ouachita ranges make for a costly operating profile, and hampers priority freight ops.
The only parallel lane was the original Frisco main down through Ft. Smith and Paris TX. BN pulled that quick, and I suspect the KCS doesn't provide any advantage in operating profile.
Ulrich The perfect opportunity to showcase a new paint scheme or, dare I say it, their experimental fuel cell locomotive.
That's the part I've been most anxiously awaiting with this merger, the paint scheme. Going to be interesting what new colors grace the rails!
GrandTrunkWestern Ulrich The perfect opportunity to showcase a new paint scheme or, dare I say it, their experimental fuel cell locomotive. That's the part I've been most anxiously awaiting with this merger, the paint scheme. Going to be interesting what new colors grace the rails!
My guess is Red
"April 14, the date that Canadian Pacific will gain control of Kansas City Southern"
I think that's the issue - my feeling is this isn't a merger of two equals creating a new entity (like BN+ATSF=BNSF) but more CP buying KCS. My guess is there may not be a new paint scheme, just CP red with either "Canadian Pacific" or "CPKC" on the flanks.
https://www.trains.com/trn/news-reviews/news-wire/cpkcs-first-new-trains-will-handle-cross-border-perishables-shipments/
wjstix"April 14, the date that Canadian Pacific will gain control of Kansas City Southern" I think that's the issue - my feeling is this isn't a merger of two equals creating a new entity (like BN+ATSF=BNSF) but more CP buying KCS. My guess is there may not be a new paint scheme, just CP red with either "Canadian Pacific" or "CPKC" on the flanks. https://www.trains.com/trn/news-reviews/news-wire/cpkcs-first-new-trains-will-handle-cross-border-perishables-shipments/
And you are just figuring this out. This is nominally an end to end hook up; end to end's are 99.995% of the time one entity buying another to expand their reach.
Never too old to have a happy childhood!
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